It is somewhat hard to know which strand on England's November lockdown to pick apart - a large number of people in the press (and twitter) are commenting ("hot takes" in the US parlance) - most heat and not so much light.

Yesterday, before the announcement, I tweeted on this here: https://t.co/HmaMSwbqQ1
I'd also recommend @AdamJKucharski's tweet thread on this https://t.co/UN7tTt95dQ and @JeremyFarrar's here https://t.co/dCYmUdE4gJ
I can feel quite a few people processing this, and those people in media positions, via their public personas. It's unsurprising there is concern, angst and questions, even though if you had been following the numbers, SAGE and other debates it was well sign posted
So - in this tweet thread I want to remind people why this is different to March - it *really* is, and then I will do a second thread on things that people bring up which I think are not good arguments
Why is November Lockdown or more restrictions not like March in England?
The first, and most practical, is that hospitals will stay open for non-COVID procedures if at all possible + schools being open is the next highest priority (that's what I infer). Both of these are clearly about minimising the health and life impact aspects of more restrictions.
The second is that our situational awareness - how much of the virus transmitting, and where - and knowledge of the virus (incubation period, disease profile at least for acute disease) is in a completely different space - we really know stuff.
Just knowing where and how doesn't mean we can change things, but it is a good thing. It allow us to forecast and model with confidence; it allows us to understand where to focus.
The third thing is that worldwide clinical research - of which some of the best has happened in the UK in particular the excellent RECOVERY trial - means less people die who are infected. Both single big things (knowing which drugs work) and thousands of little things here.
Frustratingly our increased knowledge does mean we now have a fuzzy view of a nasty long term follow on disease ("Long COVID") which we still need to get into focus more as it will be important to understand.
The fourth big thing is that although the mixture of TTI and restrictions in October was not enough to prevent growth, it *did* slow growth alot from the R ~2.5 to 3 in March vs 1.5-1.2 in October. We're not that far away from reasonable control of the virus transmission.
This deserves the Dickensian quote again: "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery". Much the same with growth vs shrinkage here.
One "card in our favour" is that at lower incidence levels some aspects of TTI - in particular Trace - just work better (or should work better - it is super complex to operationalise this stuff). This means lower incidence gives us a chance to have less restrictions and control.
The fifth big thing is that we have real confidence that there will many vaccine trials reporting end of this year / beginning of next, and if one or more is successful, this will likely change many aspects of the epidemic.
Vaccines are best not thought of as a fairy tale ending to this pandemic, but they are potent tools when they work (how potent we wont know until the Phase III trials are in). Past the early vaccine results there is the Spring and less favourable weather for the virus.
So - although this is not a nice place to be, the horizon is definitely better looking forward. And although the weather in England is always pretty foul I hope this lockdown is far sharper, shorter and easier than March (fingers crossed!)

More from World

You May Also Like

Fake chats claiming to be from the Irish African community are being disseminated by the far right in order to suggest that violence is imminent from #BLM supporters. This is straight out of the QAnon and Proud Boys playbook. Spread the word. Protest safely. #georgenkencho


There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.


Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.


Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.


The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
Recently, the @CNIL issued a decision regarding the GDPR compliance of an unknown French adtech company named "Vectaury". It may seem like small fry, but the decision has potential wide-ranging impacts for Google, the IAB framework, and today's adtech. It's thread time! 👇

It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details):
https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha

I've read it so you needn't!

Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.

The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.

Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.