While Financially Analyzing Businesses (esp Small Leaders), this is THE Order:

- Cash Flow Statement (Focus on Operating Cash)
- Cash Position

- Balance Sheet Strength
- Never Miss Receivables

- P&L

Cash >> Balance Sheet >> Finally P&L

#FI

@unseenvalue Got it sir 🙏

1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.

3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.

5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.

A thread: How to value? 🏦💰❓

Sharing my learnings from my journey so far.

Initially when I started out I used to ignore what anybody would have to say about their style of valuing a business and I would blindly copy what Benjamin Graham’s book, The Intelligent Investor had to say.

Later came a stage where I realized Benjamin style was not working.

Before we get into the learning, here is the background to it:

If you have been following me for the past 1 year you would have noticed how my valuation method has changed.

I used to struggle a lot with valuation and it would be at the back of my mind the whole day thinking what are these investors doing to value. I tried DCF but that didn’t work for me. (Don’t hate me for that, its my personal choice)

I used to attend Bloomberg Quint’s talk on Zoom, message investors, read books, etc. to figure out: How to value? (The frustration had got to a level that I took break from investing for 3-4 weeks)

@sahil_vi @suru27 Just because a company is fundamentally very very strong , doesn’t mean an investor would end up getting rewarded always . The term called “Valuation”needs to be respected which ultimately gives you margins of safety and comfort in panic situations .

One of the best debates I have seen in recent history between @SunilBSinghania and Saurabh Mukherjea.

TOPIC: Has P/E lost its relevance?

I resonate more with Sunil’s side. Here’s a thread 🧵 on the main points made by him:

@varinder_bansal @safiranand @myvaluepicks

1/ Importance of PE

PE is not the only factor but an important factor.

Ultimately the growth has to justify how much PE are you paying for the company.

There cannot be an unlimited PE multiple based on some xyz parameters.

2/ Hindsight Bias:

In hindsight we can say that from 2001 to 2021, a company grew at 25 % and we should have given a very high PE to it.

But on the day when you buy, you don’t know that the company is going to grow at 25% for the next 20 years.

3/ Millennial preference:

Things have become more competitive.

New generation don’t really care much about legacy.

Convenience and affordability matters more.

The longevity and sustainability of growth has changed dramatically.

4/ Company that require a big investment - There is opportunity to invest big.

Company 1: Mkt Cap of 50 cr
Company 2: Mkt cap of 1 lakh cr

50c r company can become 3x, 1 lakh cr company cannot become 2x.

On absolute basis you end up making 5 cr vs 5k cr in 1lakh cr company.