What are CROs, CDMOs, CMOs and CRAMS? How are they different from each other and what value do they add to the Pharma Value Chain? To understand these concepts, we took a look at the drug discovery process.
Thread on Drug Development process 🧵
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@unseenvalue
Topics Covered :
1.Introduction to CRO,CDMO,CMO & CRAMS
2.Discovery
3.Clinical Trials
4.Commercialization and Surveillance
5.Success Rates
6.CRO
7.CMO
8.CDMO
9.CRAMS
What are CROs, CDMOs, CMOs and CRAMS? How are they different from each other and what value do they add to the Pharma Value Chain? To understand these concepts, we took a look at the drug discovery process.
The discovery of a new drug starts in the research lab where researchers study hundreds of diseases. They analyse what part of the body a disease affects and what reaction the body has to these diseases.
Once all this data has been collected, they file an Investigational New Drug (IND) Application with the US FDA. The US FDA reviews the IND within 6 months of filing. Once the IND is approved,
3. Clinical Trials:
The drug now moves to the Clinical Trials phase. It will be the first time a novel drug will be given to human beings. The clinical trials itself take place in 3 phases.
If the FDA approves the NDA, the company can manufacture and market the drugs to the public. But the testing does not end here. The drug now moves into Phase 4 testing.
Approximately 70% of the drugs move from Phase 1 to Phase 2, 33% move from Phase 2 to Phase 3, 25-30% move from Phase 3 to Phase 4. About 70-90% of drugs in Phase 4 are successful in staying in the market.
So where do the CROs and CDMOs come in? Contract research organizations help with the first 2 phases whereas Contract development and manufacturing organizations help with the last 2 phases
CROs support the innovators by providing services from drug discovery right up to commercialization. They provide services like target discovery, pre clinical trials, management of clinical trials, help with regulatory filings and pharmacovigilance(Phase 4).
Contract manufacturing organizations (CMO) on the other hand provide outsourced manufacturing solutions to the innovator. They are involved with the manufacturing of APIs and Formulations and oftentimes even involved with the final packaging of the product.
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#Hikal has stepped up R&D in recent years. Next few years (capex & launches) should yield superior earnings. Wish them all the luck \U0001f44d
— Sajal Kapoor (@unseenvalue) September 26, 2020
D: invested and biased view for sure, but it was below 1x price to sales vs 12x price to sales for many chemicals and generic players. No reco!! pic.twitter.com/aqPUKbziHK
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Covering one of the most unique set ups: Extended moves & Reversal plays
Time for a 🧵 to learn the above from @iManasArora
What qualifies for an extended move?
30-40% move in just 5-6 days is one example of extended move
How Manas used this info to book
The stock exploded & went up as much as 63% from my price.
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) June 22, 2020
Closed my position entirely today!#BroTip pic.twitter.com/CRbQh3kvMM
Post that the plight of the
What an extended (away from averages) move looks like!!
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) June 24, 2020
If you don't learn to sell into strength, be ready to give away the majority of your gains.#GLENMARK pic.twitter.com/5DsRTUaGO2
Example 2: Booking profits when the stock is extended from 10WMA
10WMA =
#HIKAL
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) July 2, 2021
Closed remaining at 560
Reason: It is 40+% from 10wma. Super extended
Total revenue: 11R * 0.25 (size) = 2.75% on portfolio
Trade closed pic.twitter.com/YDDvhz8swT
Another hack to identify extended move in a stock:
Too many green days!
Read
When you see 15 green weeks in a row, that's the end of the move. *Extended*
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) August 26, 2019
Simple price action analysis.#Seamecltd https://t.co/gR9xzgeb9K