Let’s say you start with 1k and your win rate is 70%. You take 30% profit and 30% loss fixed. End of 100 trades you net around 45k excluding fees.

If your win rate is 60% you end up with 2k.

What’s the lesson? Be selective and keep your win rate high. You’ll win

#driptip

The Truth About Trading (Thread)

1/ Risk Management & Consistency

Everything works in the stock market just NOT all the time. You can trade RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands, Volume, and they all will win for a period of time and lose for a period of time.

2/ YOUR JOB as a trader is to MANAGE RISK. Every good trading strategy WILL boil down to a 50-60% accuracy overtime and I know this from 1000’s of hours of back testing.

3/ To be profitable, follow this SIMPLE LAW:

AVERAGE WINNER > AVERAGE LOSER
Below is a table I’ve created showing the total number of winning trades (per 100) you need to win to be profitable:

4/ As the risk to reward increased the required win rate goes down. The sweet spot I’ve found is scaling out your positions and cutting your losers to get you close to 2X your average loser. In this case, you only need to win 34/100 trades in order to be profitable. YOU CAN DO IT

5/ The key to success in trading (repeat everyday):
1 – I have no attachment to any stock or instrument, my job is solely to manage risk
2 – I am a Casino; I take all trades that fit my trading plan because I know my edge is profitable

🎲 How to play trigger watchlists 🎲

1. How/When to enter:

This is NOT an exact science, there is no way to avoid fakeouts. These are KEY levels, and for that reason, provide strong moves. However, they can be hard to break due to their significance. You must manage risk.

There are two strategies I follow.
a) Conservative: Wait for a 5 minute candle to close through the trigger level. Ex: if an $AMD put trigger is under 100 and 5 minute candle closes at 10:45AM at 99.85, take the position.

b) Risky: Playing the first sign of follow through. Ex: $AMD closes 5m candle at 10:45AM at 100.15 - No trigger. At 10:47AM, $AMD fails 100 support and closes 10:47 1m candle at 99.80. I would likely take a position off of key support failure.

2. Fakeouts/Stop losses

Taking losses is inevitable in trading. Our job is to minimize them. My rule here is -10% hard stop loss because you can always re-add the position.

Suppose you take a position from Ex a) $AMD immediately reverses and closes 10:50 5m candle at 110.15…

Your position is red, likely down ~10%. Cut the loser and reassess. Your reason for playing was the 100 breakdown, it is now INVALID. As soon as your thesis becomes invalid, cut, take a deep breath, reassess, watch.

Trading Education Thread time 1/8

There are really only two types of trading styles:

1. Mean Reversion Trading
2. Breakout Trading

All other "styles" are merely indicator-based trading systems.

This thread will specifically discuss Breakout Trading

2/8

Breakout Trading requires identification of four elements in order to be successful:

1. Trendlines (pattern based support/resistance)
2. Price Action (overall trending direction)
3. Volume (the amount of participants)

3/8

Trendlines serve as support/resistance like order blocks (areas w/ prior bull/bear struggle) & lead to patterns. Human psychology does not like randomness which is why there tends to be strong reaction at the extremes of historical reference points or anticipated patterns.

4/8

The mkt tends to test two extreme ends of reference areas for a time, leading to a distinct larger pattern or range. A misconception is that certain patterns are always bearish/bullish, but the dominant trend (~4-7x TF above yours) influences the eventual breakout dir more.

5/8

Still, false breaks occur quite frequently. Basic patterns like triangles often trap newer traders that seasoned traders/algos regularly exploit, especially in crypto. Frontrunning or chasing mid-candle breakout is at high risk of being exit liquidity for the counter dump.