thread

LESS IS MORE?

Fishing Opportunities

1. I'm reading the summary on the UK/EU trade agreement & have some concerns. It's not the full blown text, just an outline of the negotiated agreement so I may be needlessly cynical, we'll have to wait & see.

2. The 25% UK uplift of the value the EU member states catch in UK waters.

I see difficulties with this whichever way I try to spin it to myself:
a) The EU are reducing quotas in fishing waters for some species due to issues with sustainability.
3. So our uplift could cause over fishing of stocks in our own waters. The summary doesn't mention if/how EU access to our waters will be reduced?

b) But assuming the quotas are reduced in line with other member states waters, we could have a reduced income rather than uplift.
4. The 25% uplift is implemented over 5 yrs. So for the sake of argument let's assume it's 5% per yr. But if EU quotas are being reduced by an average of say 10% by weight, that 10% has a value attached to it & our annual uplift will be calculated in line with the lower quotas.
5. Although in theory there'd be a point in 2 yrs where our 5% increments would match the reduced EU quotas, the scientific advisers are calling for greater reductions in quotas to allow stocks to recover, so it's likely quotas will be cut again.
6. My scant calculations are imperfect because I'm estimating tonnage against price, but you can see where the difficulties arise: we get a 5% uplift in £ in year 1, but the quotas are only 90% of the previous yr, so there's a potential 5% reduction.
7. I'm also suspicious of the:
'for the adjustment period the Agreement provides access to a limited part of our territorial waters for vessels which have traditionally fished there'.

Anyone else thinking about the super trawlers here? What does 'traditionally' allude to?
8. I'm also uncomfortable with the compensatory mechanism if we deny access. The EU have gone against scientific advice on quotas - there could also be pressure on the UK to do likewise & allow access despite stocks being under threat.
9. Where is the zonal attachment David Frost was adamant we would adopt? This system allows over fished areas to be rested to facilitate stock recovery.

Hopefully the full text will answer some of the concerns & I've jumped the gun with needless concerns?
10. https://t.co/0wmiWdEpYb
11. So it looks like the traditional access within the 6 - 12 mile zone includes limited stretches of coast for French, German, Belgian, Dutch & Irish trawlers. The Margiris is the controversial Dutch super trawler. 😶

More from Trading

We have shared a lot of threads exclusively on Subasish Pani in the past year.

As this year comes to an end, here are the 11 most powerful threads on Subasish Pani exclusively compiled for you all.

Collborated with @AdityaTodmal

1/ Important concepts from Power of Stocks - Subasish


2/ Important concepts with video links of Subasish


3/ The 5 EMA


4/ The Bollinger Band set-

You May Also Like