Just got a tip that Citadel reloaded their shorts before they told Robinhood to stop trading $GME.

If this is true, Ken Griffin and the Robinhood founders should be in jail.

This is class warfare.

10 months ago we shut down Atrium after raising $75m in venture capital. Anyone hearing that knows I made tons of mistakes along the way. Someone asked me today what my biggest lessons learned were. Here they are:

Start with the mission
.

It is very hard to write the mission after the fact. You should start with a clear reason to exist and filter early hires for believers.

Start remote. SFBA is over for startups: the cost of housing and rent gives you much worse operating leverage. Many talented people choose jobs they want to be flexible re: location. Remote is better at this time in the market.

I wrote that before COVID, now it's extra true.

There is no skipping of the R&D phase of a company - if you try to skip this you miss the part where you are forced to develop something differentiated. Very hard to solve this with money.

Don’t build a services company. It’s more work to manage everyone and the reward isn’t there at the end of the day.

With @ycombinator #demoday kicking off, @atrium gathered advice from past YC founders.

.@jaltma from @latticeHQ says “Don’t confuse investor interest with product-market fit. You’re about to be on the receiving end of a lot of hype and FOMO - use it to your advantage by taking the money and then keep your burn and ego low.”

.@typesfast from @flexport says “I like to remind myself that even Bruce Springsteen still gets nervous before his concerts. Remember that, and then try to focus on what investors want: First, not to be bored. Second, to get rich(er).”

.@collinmathilde from @frontapp says “Leverage your data to tell a story about what the business has achieved and where it is going. Metrics are necessary, but they are too often shared without a narrative arc.”

.@drusenko from @weebly says “Make it relevant. Investors can live in their own world, so try to find an angle that they can relate to.”

1/ Silicon Valley has changed a lot over the past 13 years since I started my first company (an AJAX calendar called Kiko that was funded in the first batch of YC).

2/ Tech has gone from an industry no one cared about, to every random person I knew in college rushing to be part of it, to the evil industry destroying the fabric of society

3/ Starting a startup is easier than ever. Lots of resources: YC, more financing at the seed stage, much more information online. Starting a company is no longer a risky path.

4/ New businesses in every industry are now being built with methodologies that used to be just for tech startups (fast iteration, access to venture capital). Applies to D2C companies like Allbirds, full stack companies like Atrium, etc.

5/ Personally, I’ve felt recently that the overall risk appetite of the people working in tech has changed. People used to want to join frontier companies building something fun / cool; now everyone seems to be optimizing for salary / career stability.

1/ Throughout my startup career, I’ve seen many founders have an aversion to sales. This is a mistake that can kill your startup.

2/ Sales is often viewed as either a saving grace or proof that the product isn’t good enough (because it should sell itself). Neither are ever true. Some common mistakes that result in...

3/ Mistake 1: Hire a sales rep before reaching product/market fit to get your initial batch of customers. This is a mistake because founders need to work through their MVP with early adopters to truly understand what it is they’re selling.

4/ Mistake 2: Reach product/market fit, need to scale, and rely entirely on self-serve. For enterprise products that require big commitments and internal shifts, almost no product is self-explanatory enough to sell itself.

5/ Mistake 3: Make a first sales hire who isn’t scrappy enough to help mold the sales process from scratch. Some salespeople are amazing at their jobs, but not cut out to establish the processes that others end up following. This skillset is what @rdedatta calls a “sales ninja”.

A thread about GameStop:

Big hedge funds made big bets that GameStop’s stock was overvalued. The way these bets work is the hedge fund borrows shares of the stock and sells those borrowed shares.

When it comes time to give the borrowed shares back, they buy them on the market, hopefully at lower prices. For example, they might sell the borrowed share at $50, hoping to be able to buy the share back at $30, to make a $20 profit. This is called shorting.

The hedge funds were so sure that GameStop was going down, that GameStop was the most shorted stock on the market. 140% of the shares in existence were “borrowed.” Imagine Bob borrows from Jane who borrows from Sue who borrows from John.

Shorting is risky, but the hedge funds were so sure that they just didn’t even care. People on Reddit realized this and basically thought “what if we all just bought shares and refused to sell them when the hedge funds need to give their borrowed shares back.”

The price goes up, the hedge funds are forced to buy back the expensive shares and lose money. Except the hedge funds kept doubling down as the price rode up, expecting that it would eventually fall. The Redditors weren't scared off and with "diamond hands" refused to sell.

Learn about the STEEL SECTOR in this thread

The demand for steel is generally only 1.2 times the GDP & there is no significant growth in our GDP but still the sector has rallied relentlessly, lets try & understand

Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors (1/22)
#Investing

The metal sector is broadly divided into 2,
-Ferrous is a category of metal that has Iron in it, Steel as an example
-Non-Ferrous is a metal, which does not have Iron content, Aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, Zinc etc.
This thread focuses on Ferrous & hence Steel (2/22)

To start, lets understand with how steel is made (its important).
Iron ore is mined, it is then first converted to Iron & Iron is then converted to Steel. There are 3 processes of making steel
-Blast Furnace
-Scrap Metal
-DRIP/Sponge
We will discuss all three (3/22)

In my 20 years of trading I have noticed this cycle play out again and again with traders that "make it":

1. Overconfidently reach for returns
2. Get humbled by the market
3. Simplify + concentrate on clear, high probability edges.

1/n

Nearly everyone starts with a lack of respect for how hard it is to consistently make money trading.

That leads them to pass over high-probability sources of returns in favor of more marginal ideas.

Or they overcomplicate the trading of a good edge.

2/n

Here's an example...

It is 2015. You look at a simple strategy.

You hold an equal dollar exposure to:
- Cap Weighted US Stocks (VTI)
- 20+ Yr US Treasury Bonds (TLT)
- Gold (GLD)

And rebalance each month.

(I've extended back a bit with mutual fund prices.)

3/n

It made money consistently with a few blips.

You'd have 4x your money from 1997 to 2015.

It makes sense. It's harnessing two big sources of risk premia (equity + duration).

It diversifies across 3 macro assets that tend to outperform in different econ environments

4/n

But, naturally, you turn your mind to how you could do better...

And here is where it gets dangerous!

There are good ways to try to "do better", and there are bad ways to try to "do better".

5/n

A small thread on momentum investing and how I practice it.

I use the Nifty 500 universe for selecting my momentum stocks. Nifty 500, as the name suggests, has 500 companies in it. WRONG !!!! It actually has 501 companies. Yes, I double-checked 🙂 So, these 501 companies is

my talent pool (if you will) from which I select the 50 best candidates that I want to bet my money on.

Ok. So, exactly, did I go about doing that.

Step 1: Start with Nifty 500 universe (501 companies)

Step 2: Eliminate all those companies which have a listing history of

less than 1 year. This eliminated 25 companies (see table).

Step 3: For the remaining 476 companies, I computed their last 12-month rolling price returns (meaning, comparison of their price as on March 31, 2022 as compared to that as on March 31, 2021, and then computing the %

gain that each of those stocks have earned. I found out the following:

a) Average return of all the 476 companies was 43.27% (meaning if their average price as on March 31, 2021 was 100, then their average price as on March 31, 2022 was 143.27)

b) Out of these 476 companies

140 companies, gave a negative return.

c) Out of the balance 336 companies, 46 companies gave single-digit returns

d) Out of the balance 290 companies, 101 companies gave a return between 10-30%

e) Out of the balance 189 companies, 55 gave returns between 30-50%