BC TN2021
Saved by @rajanagk

My take on @AmitShah 's visit of Chennai 21 - 22 November.

Those interested in TN politics may read.

1. Amit Shah looked extremely pleased with the trip overall, evident from the way he got out of the cavalcade and walked.

I saw that rare smile on his face throughout his visit

 He is also pleased with EPS's performance in the state - best implementation of central schemes.

Maybe reason for no anti-incumbency in the state, especially after last year's debacle.

Why is it important for Shah to be pleased with AIADMK's warm position towards BJP/ Shah?
It is important because the alliance is a two-way bridge. Shah needs AIADMK at the centre, especially in Rajyasabha more 'involved' to pass some of the heavy weight and controversial bills he has up his sleeve.

He is pleased because AIADMK is willing to partner. In exchange,
Shah may need to give cabinet position/s. I suppose a cabinet reshuffle is round the corner.

Two-way bridge because

a. It looked for some time BJP was a dead rubber for AIADMK post 2019 LS elections. This might mean that AIADMK may have decided to ditch BJP.
b. The old cry of BJP contesting alone still lingers in BJP leadership. This isn't good for now for two reasons:

~ That may inadvertently let DMK form a govt in TN

~ May make some key constitutional amendments Modi and Shah are planning at the centre difficult to pass
However, thanks to the hard working leadership under @Murugan_TNBJP , @annamalai_k and the likes, BJP has emerged a formidable player in the arena prompting AIADMK to continue the alliance with them.

Shah's visit has confirmed a mutual respect and acceptance.
Shah may have also gathered clear intelligence of Stalin's deepest fears and issues - some of which Stalin has openly agreed in their party meetings - that the contest is extremely tough.

Shah may have also got information on the misfired tactics of PKP.

So, he is happy.
2. I speculate from @sgurumurthy 's meeting with Shah in the dead of the night (hear it lasted a few hours), that they discussed Rajnikant among the many other issues of TN politics and wider (upcoming reforms?).

I deduce from this that Rajnikant is NOT forming a third front.
It's possible that they also discussed ways to get Rajnikant endorse the NDA alliance.

A tough move, but like Cho, SG might succeed considering his role in TN politics post JJ.
3. Seat sharing between AIADMK and BJP will be purely on winnability basis as clearly indicated by Shah in his address during the govt function. He spoke out on 'family politics'.

So, it is clear that the strategy is to ensure DMK does NOT win.
For that, BJP might agree to smaller share of seats where it is sure of win.

We must not take that as weakness of BJP or its leaders.

It will be done only to ensure winnability, which is mostly for AIADMK thanks to EPS's rising stature currently.
However, BJP will retain enough number of seats to ensure they could be king makers as pointed out by L Murugan a while ago.

They may negotiate enough seats to gain a double digit win. Will think more on these in the New Year.
Since AIADMK cadres are still intact and they are pro-Modi this time, votes might transfer, but it is easier to consolidate the 10% BJP votes towards AIADMK than otherwise.

So, this is very clear that fewer BJP seats can be expected from the alliance, but BJP will be second.
4. As I rightly predicted, Shah did not meet any actor, did not discuss alliance or seat sharing.

He seems to have set the tone, agreed on possible cabinet roles, larger outlook as national alliance, and approach to TN election - maybe clarifying BJP's specific strategy.
5. I think if AIADMK did not object to Vel Yathrai, it wouldn't have become this big. So, agreeing to disagree on some key concepts of BJP is productive. A good confidence builder for public.

As a public, I would respect if alliance partners differ explicitly on various matters.
This will help keep all voices heard and cared for. This will be a promising new style of "no-compromise but together-for-larger-good alliance".

As is usual with Shah's style, other key people from the central administration will start descending in TN and Kerala soon.
I also speculate that Shah will pitch RSS in full swing this time. Remember how Ram Madhav helped J&K and NE?

Also Kerala in 2015?

I think that will happen for the first time in TN.
Amit Shah has visited Bengal, and TN, so I think his visit of Kerala is next. Please comment if you know about the plan.

I hope @surendranbjp and his work impresses Shah just as Murugan and team have done in TN. (He is not going to be happy with some people as I see it).
A word about the controversy on Amit shah 'speaking politics in govt function'.

The biggest govt function is the Parliament. Nothing but politics is spoken there day in and day out. No one has an issue?
Politics should not be in governance such as recruiting your own people in key positions like CPM in Kerala.

While developing and implementing policies/ law, schemes, no political bias should be taken.

But Ministers can speak politics wherever they go.
Overall, BJP's tone is set for TN.

Help AIADMK to come to power or BLOCK DMK from coming to power in 2021.

Grow at booth level exponentially over the next five years, and gain power in 2026.

Now, waiting for the Kerala visit.....

More from Sreevidya Balasubramaniam

Sreevidya Balasubramaniam
Sreevidya Balasubraman...
@BaluSreevidya
My Notes on Tamil Nadu Politics Part 4

EPS-OPS SPEECH IN THE AIADMK GEN COUNCIL.

From these speeches, I am picking up some undercurrents and seeing AIADMK's positioning of themselves in the election procession.

I am also analysing long term impacts of this.

EPS

1. Did the due diligence of glorifying MGR and JJ well enough, but seemed keen to move on and set the new party

2. Pulled a good balancing trick of precariously positioning party ahead of self, but keeping the emerging self image intact

3. Did not look like playing on the newly built stature/ image. Looked very aware, confident of his reach and acceptance by people, but not overly indulging in self. Showed exceptional maturity

4. Craftily directed criticisms/ allegation of corruption towards the party,

and asking the party to counter baseless allegations, while giving credit of performance to the government.

5. Spoke to the workers like a captain in the battlefield in clear, simple and categorical terms - setting expectations on them, setting the tone, agenda and approach

6. Did not mention the @narendramodi or the centre even once when talking to his workers.

Did not even mention the schemes @AmitShah inaugurated. No love left from that function in November.

While never missing an achievement of own government and invoking the dead leaders,
TN2021
Sreevidya Balasubramaniam
Sreevidya Balasubraman...
@BaluSreevidya
Thread for girls (of all ages) - The 'Why' of our dos and don'ts - Part 1.

Over the past few generations, our elders had lost the wisdom of dos and don'ts for us.

As a result, they couldn't explain the 'why' behind all that.

This week on, I am writing a series of short threads on various topics for girls. You may follow these or pass on to your daughters.

Part 1

Why are we not allowed to sit cross-legged?

Practice of sitting cross-legged will create pressure in internal organs inside waist area.

It will also affect blood circulation. Women need proper blood circulation in those organs. Broad waist is needed for higher fertility and easy delivery.

1. Sitting in the Mother Rajarajeswari posture (two positions shown below) allow waist to expand allowing blood circulation.


This posture minimises blood running to the feet all the time, creating minute dams in the waist area for blood which enables internal organs to rejuvenate.

When eating, sitting on the floor like this will help digest food easily.

Women roadside vendors normally sit this way.

This was not just Indian tradition, pagan women world over had similar traditions.

A german friend once told me that her Norse mother-in-law would tap her every time she saw my friend sitting cross legged, saying 'you will need a broader waist'.
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Sreevidya Balasubramaniam
Sreevidya Balasubraman...
@BaluSreevidya
My Notes on Tamil Nadu Battle Field – Part 3

POST RAJINIKANTH POLITICS

My short thread on RK was focusing on the challenges RK will face. Key points.

1. I said that if Rajini couldn’t enter the “Rajini” style, hen he won’t enter at all. His announcement yesterday reflects it.

2. His followers are not united by a cause or ideology but by the mutual attraction towards a hero.

This will cause issues going forward as their bond will have to be a continuous guidance and inspiration from their leader who couldn't spare that energy or time due to his health

I had predicted in my first thread in November that Rajini won't form a third front.

So, when RK announced his political entry, I was surprised for two reasons:

1. when he announced his entry in 2017 there was a political vacuum in Tamil Nadu.

However, the rise of EPS and BJP through its Vel Yathra has made the emergence of a new hero somewhat redundant and it looked he was under pressure to come due to the tall promises he had made before.

2. the critical mass was still a distant dream because not enough footwork was done at booth level to transfer support to vote.

I have covered his strengths in detail previously, which included his organisational framework and blueprint and cast-less vote bank.
INDIA , TN2021
Sreevidya Balasubramaniam
Sreevidya Balasubraman...
@BaluSreevidya
My Notes on Democracy Part 1

MANUFACTURING Dl55ENT AND MODI'S RESPONSE - AN ANALYSIS

DlS5ENT is allowed in a democracy. Any democratic leader or government will uphold - and MUST uphold its citizens's right to DlS5ENT.

This thread analyses the recent Indian experience.


Some years ago, a western country displayed a movie on India in their visitor centre. Showed @Narendramodi the then Gujarat CM as a devil incarnate drinking the blood of MU5LlM.

A tough battle with the authorities resulted in taking down this video.

Lesson - this obscure country which Modi never visited till date has little to do with Indian politics. Yet, there is this need to stop Modi in his tracks of becoming the future PM by smearing him.

Most of you may have noticed Modi as a potential PM in the last decade.

But the Break India F0rces saw this before 2000. It was no surprise as he was the architect of BJP win in the state. This explains why Godhra, the best managed riot turned into a career-defining event for Modi-Shah.

Who are these people and what is their connection to the topic?

C0MMUNl5T5. As most of us know, Political C'sm is but a surface body of an underground larger body. It has many voices, resources, money, and massive techniques in social sciences, economics, and government machinery.

Almost all 'isms' are products of C'sm.
ALL , WORLD
Sreevidya Balasubramaniam
Sreevidya Balasubraman...
@BaluSreevidya
For those who blame @AmitShah and @narendramodi for every stone pelted at Hindus.

~ This is a global phenomenon
~ You should know something about this communist warfare to study GOI's response or actions

Read the following communist techniques and think if you see a pattern.

Aim of communists - world conquest.

Weapon - propaganda and mobilisation (read my pinned thread for mobilisation part)

How does it work?

In liberal democracies, ethnic races, nationalists, and good leaders are targets.

US Army exposed below techniques several decades ago.

~ Every dissatisfaction must grow into a resentment (hence the intolerance brigade, agrarian crisis, migrant crisis, rapistan, lynchistan, dara hua musalman, hijab ban, Mullamodi).

~ Every such resentment must become an argument (conveniently hosted by yours truly channels).

~ Every argument must grow into a fight (protests, stone pelting)

For communism, never a compromise. NEVER.

Never a settlement for any dispute. Only conflict.

Remember, GOI was willing to make amendments to Farmers Law, but no compromise from the protestors).

~ Every fight must go into a riot (pistols, swords in protests and stone pelting mobs)

~ Every riot must expand into a war (this didn't happen in India thanks to Modi-Shah)

~ Every war must end in devastation - rivers of blood, protracted violence, deaths, and complete unrest.
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In the 1659 Adilshah sent Afzalkhan with the army of 75000 soldiers to destroy Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj with his empire. He was the main soldier, warrior and minister in Adilshahi Sultanate.


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As per Skanda Puran, Kartikeya had narrated to Muni Agastya about the signs of the coming death. This is as per this ancient scripture.


If one experiences the air coming out of right nostril continuously then it is observed that the person dies within three years. If the breathing is continuous towards upper side from both the nostrils, then the person can die within two three days.

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Here is Editor-in-Chief of the @EpochTimes, @JasperFakkert's response to the slanted hit piece that @Buzzfeed's @HayesBrown put up 2 days ago:

Brown's article at Buzzfeed starts off pretending it's some kind of really off-the-wall notion that Hillary Clinton paid for the creation of the Steele Dossier that was then used to justify the FBI's spying on the Trump campaign & transition team.


After that awful start, he swerves to making accusations that the Epoch Times is connected to the 'cult' Falon Gong.

You can read the article here:

Brown insinuates with no real evidence whatsoever that the Epoch Times is 'Falon Gong-linked'.

The 'evidence' he supplies in his article to 'prove' @EpochTimes is 'Falon Gong-linked is this:

1) the Epoch Times' extensive *news coverage* of China's attempts to wipe out Falon Gong with intense persecution directed at the group since 1999.

2) a reporter *shouting a question in 2006* at then-President George W. Bush about China's persecution of Falon Gong members.
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An irony of facebook's situation.

Sheryl got her MBA at Harvard. One of the most famous cases (Extra Strength Tylenol) in one of the most famous classes (Business History) she took: in 1982, someone put cyanide in Extra Strength Tylenol capsules and killed 7 people in Chicago.

What do you do when someone turns your product into a weapon? When they use the system you built to harm? James Burke, CEO of J&J, was shockingly open with the public, he pulled the product and made significant packaging changes to make product safer (but not tamper-proof).

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But four years later it happened again. A killer put cyanide in the capsules, this time a woman in Yonkers died. Same CEO, Burke, pulled the product again, completely changed the form factor from capsule to caplet and relaunched *again*. It worked *again*. How'd they do that?

Burke (CEO) tapped J&Js goodwill bank account w/ the public. Two big withdrawals from that bank account in four years + 8 dead bodies! But his honesty, openness, humanity (choked up about the deaths more than once), humility kept the goodwill bank balance positive the whole time.
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