Still confused about the 2nd dose vaccine supply? Me too, but I think this is what happened: 🧵

Let’s go chronologically. Last Thursday, governors wrote a letter to @SecAzar requesting second doses not be held in reserve and instead immediately be made available:

2. Friday, CNN reported the Biden team planned to do just that: https://t.co/X9Kl3pS2JF
3. Tuesday @SecAzar said OWS would make the change as well.

Azar: "We can now ship all of the doses, that had been held in physical reserve with second doses being supplied by doses coming off of manufacturing lines with quality control going forward."

https://t.co/4SSZHwlBFI
4. @SecAzar also noted in that announcement:

"Each week, doses available would be released to first cover the needed second doses, and then cover additional first vaccinations." (4)
5. There was an expectation that with release of 2nd doses would come an immediate increase in # of doses states could order.

That... didn't happen: https://t.co/DcH3ETSVVK
6. Governors, especially those who wrote original letter to @SecAzar, were angry.

MN's @GovTimWalz at a press conference yesterday: "They were lying. They don't have any doses held back. There is no strategic supply for the 2nd dose."

@OregonGovBrown: https://t.co/hA3zWKvt8N
7. This sounds devastating. But wait... Pfizer says it still has ALL its second doses of previous shipments to the US? So... there is a reserve? https://t.co/zYUM36jON4
8. @SecAzar was asked by @LesterHoltNBC last night about a reserve.

Azar: "No, there's not a reserve stockpile. We did that in December to be extra cautious." Bc of more confidence in manufacturing, "we've made that available for states to order." https://t.co/Ab8EYn7HZP
9. The wording around a reserve is confusing. Clearly, from Pfizer's statement, the 2nd doses to pair with the 1st exist. They will be used as 2nd doses, as we're now 1 month+ from 1st vaccines given, so many are now getting their 2nd shots.
10. Further, NYT reports it's all a big misunderstanding: https://t.co/tujiGMNG9l
11. The change is that Operation Warp Speed is no longer putting half of newly made vaccines into reserve as 2nd doses.

Ok. But. It still doesn't 100% add up.

Let's think about this in simple numbers bc it all makes my brain hurt:
12. Let's say week 1, 5M doses were available from Pfizer. 2.5M shipped as 1st dose, 2.5M stored as second.

The data show, though, only 1/3 were administered. So, 330K used, 670K stored (by states).

Stored doses now = 3.17M. Way more than were given as first shots.
13. Next week, same thing happens. 5M made. 2.5M shipped, 2.5M stored.

But again only 1/3 administered, so another 670K stored by states. Stored doses in week 2 now (states & federal) = 6.34M. [Remember these are hypothetical numbers, me trying to puzzle out what's happening.]
14. HHS says states are only ordering 75% of what they could. We know CDC & state vaccination numbers have a lag, and more is getting used, but there seems to still be excess vaccine out there.

Did I say at the beginning of this thread I was going to clear this up? 🤷‍♀️
15. Finally, one thing @PresElectBiden pledged in his vaccine speech yesterday was transparency. Hope that is true bc it would help a lot (clearly).

Now, everyone tell me how I got this wrong (srsly) - what did I miss?

cc @walidgellad @CT_Bergstrom @jasonlschwartz
16. Actually one more thing, which was the impetus for me waking up on a Saturday AM & feeling like I HAD to write a 16-tweet thread:

This miscommunication had real implications for people trying to get vaccines. Oregon now says seniors will have to wait 2 more weeks:
17. We can argue over whose fault this miscommunication was (and that’s already happening between federal govt and states), but the bottom line is - this really sucks for people who desperately want vaccines.

We need much, much more clear communication on supply.
18. I did this before coffee and now realize my hypothetical math was all over the place (ie when I calculated 1/3 of hypothetical doses administered I did it out of 1M rather than 2.5M). So the hypothetical numbers are off, but they’re hypothetical so. Anyway more ☕️

More from Society

Hi @officestudents @EHRC @EHRCChair @KishwerFalkner @RJHilsenrath @trussliz @GEOgovuk

The Equality and Diversity section of your job application has 'gender' in what appears to be a list of the protected characteristics under the Equality Act 2010.

However...

1/15


However, 'gender' is not a protected characteristic under the Equality Act 2010 and is not defined in the Act.

https://t.co/qisFhCiV1u

Sex is the protected characteristic under the Act, but that is not on your list.

2/15


You then ask for the 'gender' of the applicant with options:

Male
Female.

3/15


Again, 'gender' is not a protected characteristic under the Equality Act 2010 and is not defined in the Act.

https://t.co/qisFhCiV1u

4/15


Sex is the protected characteristic and the only two possible options for sex are 'Female' and 'Male' as defined in the Act and consistent with biology, but you don't ask for that.

https://t.co/CEJ0gkr6nF

'Gender' is not a synonym for sex.

5/15

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1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”

Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?

A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:


2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:

Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”

Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.
#தினம்_ஒரு_திருவாசகம்
தொல்லை இரும்பிறவிச் சூழும் தளை நீக்கி
அல்லல் அறுத்து ஆனந்தம் ஆக்கியதே – எல்லை
மருவா நெறியளிக்கும் வாதவூர் எங்கோன்
திருவாசகம் என்னும் தேன்

பொருள்:
1.எப்போது ஆரம்பித்தது என அறியப்படமுடியாத தொலை காலமாக (தொல்லை)

2. இருந்து வரும் (இரும்)


3.பிறவிப் பயணத்திலே ஆழ்த்துகின்ற (பிறவி சூழும்)

4.அறியாமையாகிய இடரை (தளை)

5.அகற்றி (நீக்கி),

6.அதன் விளைவால் சுகதுக்கமெனும் துயரங்கள் விலக (அல்லல் அறுத்து),

7.முழுநிறைவாய்த் தன்னுளே இறைவனை உணர்த்துவதே (ஆனந்த மாக்கியதே),

8.பிறந்து இறக்கும் காலவெளிகளில் (எல்லை)

9.பிணைக்காமல் (மருவா)

10.காக்கும் மெய்யறிவினைத் தருகின்ற (நெறியளிக்கும்),

11.என் தலைவனான மாணிக்க வாசகரின் (வாதவூரெங்கோன்)

12.திருவாசகம் எனும் தேன் (திருவா சகமென்னுந் தேன்)

முதல்வரி: பிறவி என்பது முன்வினை விதையால் முளைப்பதோர் பெருமரம். அந்த ‘முன்வினை’ எங்கு ஆரம்பித்தது எனச் சொல்ல இயலாது. ஆனால் ‘அறியாமை’ ஒன்றே ஆசைக்கும்,, அச்சத்துக்கும் காரணம் என்பதால், அவையே வினைகளை விளைவிப்பன என்பதால், தொடர்ந்து வரும் பிறவிகளுக்கு, ‘அறியாமையே’ காரணம்

அறியாமைக்கு ஆரம்பம் கிடையாது. நமக்கு ஒரு பொருளைப் பற்றிய அறிவு எப்போதிருந்து இல்லை? அதைச் சொல்ல முடியாது. அதனாலேதான் முதலடியில், ஆரம்பமில்லாத அஞ்ஞானத்தை பிறவிகளுக்குக் காரணமாகச் சொல்லியது. ஆனால் அறியாமை, அறிவின் எழுச்சியால், அப்போதே முடிந்து விடும்.
1/ Here’s a list of conversational frameworks I’ve picked up that have been helpful.

Please add your own.

2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you


3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.

“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”

“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”

4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:

“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”

“What’s end-game here?”

“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”

5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:

“What would the best version of yourself do”?