I'm going to knock out that white supremacy & abortion discourse thread for you today, but before I can get to that, we've got to talk about the 'religion' issue.

Some people are reacting to the Capitol and Christianity in the worst possible way - ethically and strategically.

Several people responded to Christian Identity / white supremacist theology thread with calls to eradicate religion.

Let's just get one thing out of the way:

1) that won't ever happen
2) you're assuming religion is the problem (spoiler; it's not)

https://t.co/mZd56Ye4QZ
Not only do non-religious ideologies prove equally lethal, but in many cases, religious observance - like regular attendance of mosques, for example - is inversely correlated with political violence.

Also: generalizations are always a very bad idea; they lack analytic depth.
I also had people read the Christian Identity thread, and then write to me to ask:

"I heard a politician open his/her remarks with the name of God / Jesus, and it worried me. Is he/she a Nazi?"

Okay, let me stop you RIGHT there.
The answer here is not “every Christian politician is a Christian identity Nazi, and every mention of ‘the words ‘Jesus’ and ‘God’ is the ‘Christian Taliban’” (or whatever Islamophobic term is in current use).

That ain't it.

For a couple of reasons.

More from Society

I've seen many news articles cite that "the UK variant could be the dominant strain by March". This is emphasized by @CDCDirector.

While this will likely to be the case, this should not be an automatic cause for concern. Cases could still remain contained.

Here's how: 🧵

One of @CDCgov's own models has tracked the true decline in cases quite accurately thus far.

Their projection shows that the B.1.1.7 variant will become the dominant variant in March. But interestingly... there's no fourth wave. Cases simply level out:

https://t.co/tDce0MwO61


Just because a variant becomes the dominant strain does not automatically mean we will see a repeat of Fall 2020.

Let's look at UK and South Africa, where cases have been falling for the past month, in unison with the US (albeit with tougher restrictions):


Furthermore, the claim that the "variant is doubling every 10 days" is false. It's the *proportion of the variant* that is doubling every 10 days.

If overall prevalence drops during the studied time period, the true doubling time of the variant is actually much longer 10 days.

Simple example:

Day 0: 10 variant / 100 cases -> 10% variant
Day 10: 15 variant / 75 cases -> 20% variant
Day 20: 20 variant / 50 cases -> 40% variant

1) Proportion of variant doubles every 10 days
2) Doubling time of variant is actually 20 days
3) Total cases still drop by 50%

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