Neuland Laboratories concall was today at 5:00 PM

@unseenvalue @darshanvmehta1 @drprashantmish6 @punitbansal14 @suru27 @rdkriplani

Hope
customer book of Neuland to remain as booked and full just like today's conference call😂

Here are the Key takeaways from the earning call👇

Business Updates:
• Price growth drivers were Levetiracetam and Mirtazapine.
• Commercialization of Unit 3 has begun and 2 API have been shipped in.
• Neuland has filed Donepezil based with USDFA.
Q from @unseenvalue sir: Growth opportunity in Peptide (esp. on generic)

• Involved in many molecule discovery in generic side
• Co. has seen value on generic capacity, GDS being continuous play for the company
• Co. may have partnership for generic side of business as well.
NCE Buinssess:

• Portfolio of PMS project has mix of both orphan and convectional drugs.
• Few molecules of NCE has started generating revenue and benefits of those molecule will be discovered in future.
CMS Buinsess:
• Most of the molecules in pipeline has been increased and some are even in commercialization.
• New business momentum continues to remain strong, and lot of business are attracted through referral business.
• More focus remains on the quality of the molecules.
De-risking the supply chain

• Neuland has decrease the raw material dependency from China, which was ~60% previously have been brought down to just 10% now which is also for cost competitiveness.
Unit 3:
• Current it is fairly underutlize as it has geographical larger side.
• Next 2-3 growth will be from the utilization of the Unit 3.
• Expansion will be based on growth company sees in future.
• Range of utlization stays at 75-80% with that productive plant.
Lower Margin, despite of operating leverage:
• As unit 3 is not entirely commercialize, operating leverage has not kicked in.
• With more investment and increasing capacity, there will be increase in margin.
Q from @darshanvmehta1 sir on margin under-stated
• Margin understatement is majorly more because of company wants to be conservative in terms of margins.

CAPEX- Currently company has done 80 crores for expansion and it will same next acquisition for better growth proposition.
Q from @suru27 sir on future of the business segment
• Volatility of the segment is expected to be reduced, as Prime, Speciality, CMS entire segment has received huge growth in the past, resulting in decline in volatility.
• Neuland is commanding higher margins and are expecting volatility in margins to remain on line.

• Utilziation target till FY 2022 is difficult predict as there will increasing in product block which will decrease the utilization and subsequently go up.

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Framework on Buyback covered till now.

This Mega Thread covers our entire thesis on this buyback special situation play, across different sectors & our experience with it.

{Thread of Threads}
🧵👇

Basic of Buyback


Just Dial buyback experience & Notable Learning


Past Case Studies with different learning:

1. TCS Buyback


2. Gandhi Special tubes

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Brief thread to debunk the repeated claims we hear about transmission not happening 'within school walls', infection in school children being 'a reflection of infection from the community', and 'primary school children less likely to get infected and contribute to transmission'.

I've heard a lot of scientists claim these three - including most recently the chief advisor to the CDC, where the claim that most transmission doesn't happen within the walls of schools. There is strong evidence to rebut this claim. Let's look at


Let's look at the trends of infection in different age groups in England first- as reported by the ONS. Being a random survey of infection in the community, this doesn't suffer from the biases of symptom-based testing, particularly important in children who are often asymptomatic

A few things to note:
1. The infection rates among primary & secondary school children closely follow school openings, closures & levels of attendance. E.g. We see a dip in infections following Oct half-term, followed by a rise after school reopening.


We see steep drops in both primary & secondary school groups after end of term (18th December), but these drops plateau out in primary school children, where attendance has been >20% after re-opening in January (by contrast with 2ndary schools where this is ~5%).

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