It was fun! I do it to learn more from graduate students' research projects and to push me to think systematically about theorizing. It is my "research gym", the only gym I'm decent at. I prepared a handout and slides (but I forgot to use them. Here some thoughts on theorizing. https://t.co/0tCBllllZh

“By theorizing I mean the process that comes before a theory is presented in its final form” Swedberg 2016, 7

“Although everyone is for "more theory," most of us have rather little understanding of how to get "more theory”.”
Dina A. Zinnes, 1980, 315
How do we shape, draft and calibrate our theory? It is assumed we learn about theorizing via emulation, comparison and practice. Theorizing is a process and we should not confound it with the outcome(a theory). There are pre-theoretical steps/tips that can facilitate the process.
Caveats: this is my way to help theorising. These suggestions are just a theorizing “banister”, nothing more. You will have to climb the stairs for your theory.
What we're aiming at: a theory is a tentative conjecture about the cause of some phenomenon of interest. Logical statement based on assumptions that explain a causal mechanism from which we can derive observable hypotheses and therefore expectations.
"Analytical Thinking": Simplifying should not be oversimplification but can help us to navigate the complexity of the social reality. Only from a simple framework we can start then adding items. Theorizing is like cooking, it easy to add elements but hard then to remove them.
Start with:

a. Clear/sharp research question. For help see my piece with @adammccauley on research questions.

b. You define your actors and level(s) of analyses: who they are? Why? What are their interdependencies? What could be alternative levels of analysis or actors?
c. Define and link to relevant literature your core concepts:
•What are the core concepts of your theory (DV, IVs, and mechanisms).
•Define them succinctly.
•Explain what are “adjacent” but not “correct” concepts.
•Explain what alternative important concepts could be
Who are the actors, their arenas and their interactions and interdependencies? My. friend and colleague @egocantos wrote very useful in order to think systematically about: actors, space of actions and interactions.
"To explain an event is to give an account of why it happened...this takes the form of citing an earlier event as the cause or the event we want to explain . [But] to cite the cause is not enough: the causal mechanism must also be provided, or at least suggested." Elster (1989,3)
I use some examples from my recent book, "Composing Peace" w/ @_vincenzobove & @ruffa_chiara on, first, using tables to present mechanism and also drawing theory based on the Coleman's boat diagram.
We aim to explain what is the "story" (as Dina Zinnes'd say) on how X affects Y.
An exercise I suggest is to draw a theory using different modalities (2X2 Matrix, Coleman's diagram, Sequencing graphs). It is important to specify actors, relations , core phenomena. But also try to draw other people theories.
Another exercise to learn how to play with theorizing and mechanism building is to "simulate findings" between X & Y and explain them!
A checklist for start theorizing & link to my workshop handout. Of course, this is not a "general fixer" and it is a hands-on workshop focusing on research projects presented by phd students. But I hope this could somehow help also other graduate students. https://t.co/nep9UYeoee

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Tomorrow, January 6th, MAGA chuds, Proud Boys, and white supremacists are planned to descend on Washington D.C. to contest the election. Among them will be NSC-131, a New England based neo-Nazi organization. Let's welcome them by saying hi to one of their members, Eddie Stuart!


Edward Stuart, from Chester, New Hampshire, has been a member of Nationalist Social Club (NSC) since the very beginning and is a staple participant in their actions. He is known in NSC chats as "Carl Jung" and is well connected in the New England Nazi scene.
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NSC-131 is a neo-Nazi group that was started in Massachusetts in early 2020 by Chris Hood. You can learn more about NSC and it's members in these threads:


Eddie describes his ideology as "Esoteric Hitlerism" which is an occult form of Nazism that literally worships Adolf Hitler as a god, or, specifically, as an incarnation of the Hindu God Vishnu. Here is Ed holding the RigVeda with some of his occult Nazi pals. Interesting Ed!
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Much of this ideological insight was gained from Eddie's Twitter, where he originally used his "Carl Jung" persona and reposts explicit neo-fascist content and racist memes. In one edited picture, Eddie can be seen at an NSC event in late June 2020 holding a Nazi Sonnenrad flag
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Imagine if Christians actually had to live according to their Bibles.


Imagine if Christians actually sacrificed themselves for the good of those they considered their enemies, with no thought of any recompense or reward, but only to honor the essential humanity of all people.

Imagine if Christians sold all their possessions and gave it to the poor.

Imagine if they relentlessly stood up for the widow, the orphan, and the foreigner.

Imagine if they worshipped a God whose response to political power was to reject it.

Or cancelled all debt owed them?

Imagine if the primary orientation of Christians was what others needed, not what they deserved.

Imagine Christians with no interest in protecting what they had.

Imagine Christians who made room for other beliefs, and honored the truths they found there.

Imagine Christians who saved their forgiveness and mercy for others, rather than saving it for themselves.

Whose empathy went first to the abused, not the abuser.

Who didn't see tax as theft; who didn't need to control distribution of public good to the deserving.

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I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.


I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.

Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.