Sequent will teach many people about what Hyperbolic Discounting and Myopic Loss aversion means. 2 Mental models which an equity investor has to understand about. No other way. Disc: invested, not a reco

@moatandvalue @sahil_vi @itsTarH 1. Healthcare
2. Cdmo/crams in Pharma and agro
3. Spechem
4. Music streaming
5. Building material
6. Exchanges
7. Ecommerce Businessess
8. Financialization
9. Niche Manufacturing due to cost arbitrage
10.Certain Auto anc cos with tie ups
11. Insurance space
12. Animal health

@sahil_vi @itsTarH 13. Cybersecurity cos abroad. Not in India.
14. Digital transformation: digital is an overused word though.
15. Biotechnology: emerging theme. Waiting for it to play out.
16. Green energy: some players already benefitting

Another Superb Blog by @badola_arjun . This time on Apollo Pipes 🏗️🏗️

This completes our PVC/CPVC pipes industry analysis. Done with Astral,Prince and Apollo 😀

Link to read🔗: https://t.co/Ib40q9Fg3g

Free Cash Flow to Firm Bridge for Asian Paints

Source: Marcellus&BQ Quint. Good read!

A word of advice and caution. When you buy a High Pe stock. Make sure that you are very certain about the growth. Plenty of good and bad examples

Eicher=Growth stopped, Got derated.

Pi Industries= At 52+Pe in 2015, growth continued (5bagger since then)

Symphony=Growth stopped as more competitors copied them, painful time correction.

Astral=Kept growing and entering newer adjacencies since 2015 when it was at 60+ Pe. (Been a 10 bagger since then)

Page Industries=Growth stopped as the company matured. No returns for last 4 yrs.

Bajaj Finance= Kept growing (barring Pandemic). Kept rerating with the earnings growth.

HDFC Life=Been absurdly valued since 2018. Leading to very poor returns.

Relaxo=Kept getting rerated on back of earnings growth.

High Pe means market is expecting strong earnings growth. What happens when it fails to come? Likely derating or painful time correction.

Paying a high multiple, you need to make sure that the growth is certain.

What I do to grasp such opportunities or to ignore them is to have a mix of deeply valued companies (like some financials I own) with Companies where I think they will grow at 30-35%+ (Navin).

This is what my framework is:-

Pf=High Pe+Already seen value+Strong earnings growth

Six key learnings from a friend/mentor in investing:-

1. Investing is a game of probabilities and not possibilities.

2. Sizing is the most important decision that you make.

3. Being a generalist and learning from sectoral experts is fun.

4. Identify the key variables

And learn how to probabilistically see how these variables move in the future.

5. Benchmark companies within a sector and then see which one is doing what, it will sooner or later reflect in financials.

6. Network as much as you can. Network is the modern day networth.

So many updates on #SequentScientific Results, almost none focus on the most important metric

Net profit before tax and exceptional items (True Cash earned by the company) increase by ~55% YoY

ROCE now above 20% and PAT increase by 36.5% are signs of Operating Leverage

Before Op Leverage kicked in for Laurus, its ROCE was in ~14%

The Advisor onboarded created the animal healthcare business for Boehringer Ingelheim (~2nd largest animal healthcare business in the world with net sales of ~4.5 Billion+ and presence in over 150 countries

Look for qualitative insights in a business, quantitative insights are just ~10% of the work

Sequent 2.0 for vision 2025.

Change in dynamics in last 5 quarters has enabled them to aim big in next 5 years.

A thread of Concall excerpt discussing how seeds are sown for a strong future.
@unseenvalue

Mar, 2020:
Carlyle Acquiring stake gives them a strong backbone which enables them to think about entering US or China market and lot of other optionality.

Filed First injectable (Tulathromycin) for US market.

Initiated CDMO business (optionality)

June, 2020
Multi-year agreement with Zoetis to market & distribute their ruminant portfolio in India. Being Partner of Zoetis provides gloabl image & helps to acquire their CDMO customer in future.

CDMO is very niche initiative targeting only veterinary API customers.

Sep, 2020:
Acquired 40% of Provet (Turkey Subsidiary, extremely profitable business) making it a wholly owned subsidiary which will improve their bottomline.

Hired Stonehaven as consultant to become top 10 animal healthcare company, dreaming big.

Dec, 2020:
CDMO model initiated with one of the largest AH player, 2 products under execution.

SEQUENT SCIENTIFIC :
++++++++++++++++

Price moving in a upward channel. Gets halted
by the coflunce and moves in a trading range.
Price at key weekly support with narrow spread
and falling volumes.

Upside of 20 - 30 %

#pricenpedia #stockmarket

Stocks to watch

#nifty50
#trading
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