This is a thread on statistics in science: 1/7 (via @LogicofScience)

Basic Statistics Part 1: The Law of Large Numbers https://t.co/wUH8eAAIak

#Science #Statistics

1/ #LBBB generates often a classical pattern on #EchoFirst. The pattern is very distinctive in Tissue Doppler of the septum.

The classical pattern arises from the time lapse of the activation and relaxation of the two walls, creating a pattern of interaction due to a sequence temporal imbalances of the tension between the two walls.

2/ As the septum is activated first, it contracts (shortening - septal flash) without activation of the lateral wall, which stretches. This generates slower pressure build up than a normal IVC, which then is prolonged.

3/ During ejection, the LV volume decreases, so both walls shorten. Tension, however, declines first in the septum, as this was activated first. This leads to a tension imbalance, so the lateral wall continues to shorten, the more relaxed septum stretches.

4/ The stretching of the septum builds up an elastic tension in the septum, which is released as recoil, when tension declines in the lateral wall, showing a post systolic shortening in the septum which is due to elasticity.

https://t.co/xvP6tVlIaE
Quite a surprise. Ferguson isn’t qualified to comment on such things. He lacks understanding of basic biological concepts, partly explaining why his predictions are often so extreme.

That said, I’ll take him as an ally. It’s clear we’re already at herd immunity. How can I be sure? London had a huge peak of excess deaths in spring. The timing of peak deaths showed clearly that the pandemic was self-limiting. Recall much debate about whether the interval...

...between lockdown & peak deaths was long enough for lockdown to have been the cause of reducing deaths? The answer was “no”. But it was close & I can understand people thinking “well, it’s close, so perhaps it was lockdown that did it?”, thereby establishing a foundational...

...myth favoured by those who genuinely believe lockdown saves lives (it clearly doesn’t).
I’ll get to London & here immunity. But those wavering about the evidence about lockdown in spring really will benefit from cogitating on this graph.

In blue are the 30 trusts with the earliest date of peak deaths in spring. In red, the 30 with the latest peak deaths. For me, this is proof that national lockdown, which began Mar 23, played no role whatsoever in turning the pandemic. You’ll see some areas had peak daily...

Solara Active Pharma Science con call was today at 3:30 PM.

@Gautam__Baid @unseenvalue @drprashantmish6 @rdkriplani

Here are the key takeaways of the call. 👇🧵

Business Updates:

• Speed of filing products has been increased. Filed 5 new DMFs – 3 in US and 2 in EU
• Currently ramping up the facility in VIZAG with strong customer attraction, and will be commercialized as planned in Q3
• VIZAG EBIDTA growth guidance changed to 40%+ YoY

• Growth Driver: Broad based growth in other products and Vizag.

• PLI: Company has filed Mysore for PLI scheme for 1 molecule.

• Technology: Company is about to complete its 2 out of 3 technology, which will enhance efficiency for Solara.

Demand in some of sectors is moderated:
• Mgmt expected moderation in demand, hence company has taken necessary steps for those products.

Gross Margins:
• It was down a bit due to product mix however.

Fiscal 2022:
• Solara has grown in regulated market space.
• Vizag will kick in. CRAMS will support tailwind.
• Most of the CRAMS is commercial API.

• Most of the product is expected to be stable both in term of demand and price in the coming few quarter

Azar just released a delusional, alternative history of Covid testing in the US. I’m mad because our testing failures allowed this outbreak to blow-up. We can’t fix our system if we ignore where it is broken. I suspect @PublicHealth agrees.

My fact-check on remarks @HHSGov 🧵

“It is indisputable that the United States has built the most extensive testing system and strategy of any major country,” says Azar.

False. Several countries have had percent positivity ~1% whereas US has never been below 5% and is >10% today. Refs KCDC & USA @JohnsHopkins

"The federal government got out of the way of test development in safe and sensible ways,” says Azar.

False. In Feb, CDC & FDA blocked labs from testing as the disease spread exponentially. I broke this story👇🏼& wrote more like it as the year wore on.

Azar defends questions about why the CDC refused an early German test vetted & distributed by WHO, by saying it was ‘unapproved’ & beneath us.

False. Top US researchers in my stories vetted several tests as early as Feb,& found that the one recommended by WHO was ideal.

Azar refuses to concede that other countries handled Covid better. He attributes Koreas success to less travel, invasiveness & private sector.

False. Korea's gov't marshaled the private sector & tracing success was largely from hiring tons of tracers.