I took a look at Shell's first ever 1.5C scenario and found that it is... remarkably similar to its “well-below 2C” scenario.

Oil, gas, coal, solar.... all basically unchanged.

The key difference: A new forest the size of Brazil to suck up the extra CO2.

Including "nature-based solutions" in the outlook brings forward the date for net-zero emissions to 2058.

Without them their pathway for CO2 emissions is the same as the previous one.

(It's also towards the higher end of 1.5C emissions pathways.)
The "Brazil-sized" forest idea isn't actually new, it has been kicking around for a couple of years.

It was referenced in the "well-below 2C" scenario although not formally included in it, and Shell's CEO has been framing it as the only viable way of getting to 1.5C.
Fine, but who is going to plant all those trees? Well... Shell says it will plant some of them.

Only yesterday Shell said forests were a key part of its net-zero strategy.

Not everyone is convinced though

https://t.co/RaJm7tOHxb
Given that Shell's 1.5C scenario also sees a big scaling up of bioenergy, the question remains: where are all those trees and bioenergy crops going to go?
Shell's scenario sits towards the higher end of 1.5C scenarios that scientists have come up with for energy use, oil, coal and solar

For emissions removed using carbon capture technology, it actually sits at the lower end. 1.5C scenarios rely _a lot_ on (largely untested) CCS
So getting to 1.5C is hard and most estimates say it will rely on lots of carbon removal.

Of course, the more fossil fuels are burned, the harder it gets.

Shell says oil and gas, “will remain significant for decades” and “there needs to be continued investment in…supply”.
Finally, Shell says it makes these scenarios not as forecasts or to reflect a business plan, but rather as “a useful tool for exploring future possibilities”.

A legal disclaimer adds:

“Ultimately, whether society meets its goals to decarbonise is not within Shell’s control.”
For more details on all of this, check out my analysis of Shells "Sky 1.5 scenario" in this piece >>>>

https://t.co/Ngj6MRMMTk

More from Science

1/ Automobiles and Intake Fraction. Since cars are back in the news I thought I would retweet this model result I offered in early April 2020. I focused only on 1 micron particles & accounted for windows completely closed & cracked slightly open.


2/ Related air exchange rates were based on experimental results in literature for mid-sized sedans. Particle deposition to indoor surfaces were accounted for, as the surface to volume ratio in a 3 m3 cab is large. An important outcome was the intake fraction (IF)

3/ Here, IF is the number of particles (or virions in collective particles) inhaled by a receptor DIVIDED BY the number or particles (or virions in collective particles) emitted by an infector.

4/ Integrated over the two hour drive (in this example) the IF for all windows closed & a receptor at rest is 0.08 (8% of what comes out of the infectors respiratory system ends up in the respiratory system of the receptor). 8%! That is a very high intake factor.

5/ With additional ventilation from cracking a window open drops the IF to 0.012 (1.2%) still relatively high. Can get lower by opening more windows.

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