Without them their pathway for CO2 emissions is the same as the previous one.
(It's also towards the higher end of 1.5C emissions pathways.)
I took a look at Shell's first ever 1.5C scenario and found that it is... remarkably similar to its “well-below 2C” scenario.
Oil, gas, coal, solar.... all basically unchanged.
The key difference: A new forest the size of Brazil to suck up the extra CO2.
Without them their pathway for CO2 emissions is the same as the previous one.
(It's also towards the higher end of 1.5C emissions pathways.)
It was referenced in the "well-below 2C" scenario although not formally included in it, and Shell's CEO has been framing it as the only viable way of getting to 1.5C.
Only yesterday Shell said forests were a key part of its net-zero strategy.
Not everyone is convinced though
https://t.co/RaJm7tOHxb
Shell plans to use forests to remove 120 Mt/yr of CO2 by 2030.
— Greg Muttitt (@FuelOnTheFire) February 12, 2021
Appropriate land for forestation is finite, and risks competition with food production and human rights of current land owners/users, esp Indigenous
For emissions removed using carbon capture technology, it actually sits at the lower end. 1.5C scenarios rely _a lot_ on (largely untested) CCS
Of course, the more fossil fuels are burned, the harder it gets.
Shell says oil and gas, “will remain significant for decades” and “there needs to be continued investment in…supply”.
A legal disclaimer adds:
“Ultimately, whether society meets its goals to decarbonise is not within Shell’s control.”
https://t.co/Ngj6MRMMTk
More from Science
JUST ONE PERSON—UK 🇬🇧 scientists think one immunocompromised person who cleared virus slowly & only partially wiped out an infection, leaving behind genetically-hardier viruses that rebound & learn how to survive better. That’s likely how #B117 started. 🧵 https://t.co/bMMjM8Hiuz
2) The leading hypothesis is that the new variant evolved within just one person, chronically infected with the virus for so long it was able to evolve into a new, more infectious form.
same thing happened in Boston in another immunocompromised person that was sick for 155 days.
3) What happened in Boston with one 45 year old man who was highly infectious for 155 days straight before he died... is exactly what scientists think happened in Kent, England that gave rise to #B117.
4) Doctors were shocked to find virus has evolved many different forms inside of this one immunocompromised man. 20 new mutations in one virus, akin to the #B117. This is possibly how #B1351 in South Africa 🇿🇦 and #P1 in Brazil 🇧🇷 also evolved.
5) “On its own, the appearance of a new variant in genomic databases doesn’t tell us much. “That’s just one genome amongst thousands every week. It wouldn’t necessarily stick out,” says Oliver Pybus, a professor of evolution and infectious disease at Oxford.
2) The leading hypothesis is that the new variant evolved within just one person, chronically infected with the virus for so long it was able to evolve into a new, more infectious form.
same thing happened in Boston in another immunocompromised person that was sick for 155 days.
3) What happened in Boston with one 45 year old man who was highly infectious for 155 days straight before he died... is exactly what scientists think happened in Kent, England that gave rise to #B117.
Immunocompromised 45 year old suffered from #COVID19 for 155 days before he died. The virus was changing very quickly inside the man's body\u2014it acquired a big cluster of >20 mutations\u2014resembled the same ones seen in #B117 & #B1351. (NPR audio Part 1 of 2)\U0001f9f5https://t.co/7kWiBZ1xGk pic.twitter.com/ZJ7AExB78Y
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 8, 2021
4) Doctors were shocked to find virus has evolved many different forms inside of this one immunocompromised man. 20 new mutations in one virus, akin to the #B117. This is possibly how #B1351 in South Africa 🇿🇦 and #P1 in Brazil 🇧🇷 also evolved.
2) NPR report audio part 2 of 2:
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 8, 2021
Dr. Li couldn't believe what they found. "I was shocked," he says. "When I saw the virus sequences, I knew that we were dealing with something completely different and potentially very important." pic.twitter.com/HT3Yt6djFd
5) “On its own, the appearance of a new variant in genomic databases doesn’t tell us much. “That’s just one genome amongst thousands every week. It wouldn’t necessarily stick out,” says Oliver Pybus, a professor of evolution and infectious disease at Oxford.
Hard agree. And if this is useful, let me share something that often gets omitted (not by @kakape).
Variants always emerge, & are not good or bad, but expected. The challenge is figuring out which variants are bad, and that can't be done with sequence alone.
You can't just look at a sequence and say, "Aha! A mutation in spike. This must be more transmissible or can evade antibody neutralization." Sure, we can use computational models to try and predict the functional consequence of a given mutation, but models are often wrong.
The virus acquires mutations randomly every time it replicates. Many mutations don't change the virus at all. Others may change it in a way that have no consequences for human transmission or disease. But you can't tell just looking at sequence alone.
In order to determine the functional impact of a mutation, you need to actually do experiments. You can look at some effects in cell culture, but to address questions relating to transmission or disease, you have to use animal models.
The reason people were concerned initially about B.1.1.7 is because of epidemiological evidence showing that it rapidly became dominant in one area. More rapidly that could be explained unless it had some kind of advantage that allowed it to outcompete other circulating variants.
Variants always emerge, & are not good or bad, but expected. The challenge is figuring out which variants are bad, and that can't be done with sequence alone.
Feels like the next thing we're going to need is a ranking system for how concerning "variants of concern\u201d actually are.
— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape) January 15, 2021
A lot of constellations of mutations are concerning, but people are lumping together variants with vastly different levels of evidence that we need to worry.
You can't just look at a sequence and say, "Aha! A mutation in spike. This must be more transmissible or can evade antibody neutralization." Sure, we can use computational models to try and predict the functional consequence of a given mutation, but models are often wrong.
The virus acquires mutations randomly every time it replicates. Many mutations don't change the virus at all. Others may change it in a way that have no consequences for human transmission or disease. But you can't tell just looking at sequence alone.
In order to determine the functional impact of a mutation, you need to actually do experiments. You can look at some effects in cell culture, but to address questions relating to transmission or disease, you have to use animal models.
The reason people were concerned initially about B.1.1.7 is because of epidemiological evidence showing that it rapidly became dominant in one area. More rapidly that could be explained unless it had some kind of advantage that allowed it to outcompete other circulating variants.
#DDDD $LBPS $LOAC
A thread on the potential near term catalysts behind why I have increased my position in 4d Pharma @4dpharmaplc (LON: #DDDD):
1) NASDAQ listing. This is the most obvious.
The idea behind this is that the huge pool of capital and institutional interest in the NASDAQ will enable a higher per-share valuation for #DDDD than was achievable in the UK.
Comparators to @4dpharmaplc #DDDD (market capitalisation £150m) on the NASDAQ and their market capitalisation:
Seres Therapeutics: $2.33bn = £1.72bn (has had a successful phase 3 C. difficile trial); from my previous research (below) the chance of #DDDD achieving this at least once is at least
Kaleido Biosciences: $347m = £256m. 4 products under consideration, compared to #DDDD's potential 16. When you view @4dpharmaplc's 1000+ patents and AI-driven MicroRx platform (not to mention their end-to-end manufacturing capability), 4d's undervaluation is clear.
A thread on the potential near term catalysts behind why I have increased my position in 4d Pharma @4dpharmaplc (LON: #DDDD):
1) NASDAQ listing. This is the most obvious.
The idea behind this is that the huge pool of capital and institutional interest in the NASDAQ will enable a higher per-share valuation for #DDDD than was achievable in the UK.
Comparators to @4dpharmaplc #DDDD (market capitalisation £150m) on the NASDAQ and their market capitalisation:
Seres Therapeutics: $2.33bn = £1.72bn (has had a successful phase 3 C. difficile trial); from my previous research (below) the chance of #DDDD achieving this at least once is at least
While looking at speculative pharmaceutical stocks I am reminded of why I am averse to these risky picks.#DDDD was compelling enough, though, to break this rule. The 10+ treatments under trial, industry-leading IP portfolio, and comparable undervaluation are inescapable.
— Shrey Srivastava (@BlogShrey) December 16, 2020
Kaleido Biosciences: $347m = £256m. 4 products under consideration, compared to #DDDD's potential 16. When you view @4dpharmaplc's 1000+ patents and AI-driven MicroRx platform (not to mention their end-to-end manufacturing capability), 4d's undervaluation is clear.
"The new answer to a 77-year-old problem"
😭
https://t.co/hm9NoaU4nr
https://t.co/8fKDiKjSWc
https://t.co/jkaicC1F2x
https://t.co/PpxWT4Jef4
😭
The new answer to a 77-year-old problem in data analysis, published today in @naturemethods. Instead of significance tests, use estimation graphics. Our software suite DABEST makes it easy for everyone to visualize effect sizes.https://t.co/UzwXJ7EUC5 pic.twitter.com/VtxyY0xaRM
— Adam Claridge-Chang (@adamcchang) June 19, 2019
https://t.co/hm9NoaU4nr
Open letter to journal editors: dynamite plots must die. Dynamite plots, also known as bar and line graphs, hide important information. Editors should require authors to show readers the data and avoid these plots. https://t.co/0GNKEIUCJL pic.twitter.com/OS9ytEFRZN
— Rafael Irizarry (@rafalab) February 22, 2019
https://t.co/8fKDiKjSWc
Couldn't find D3 code for grouped horisontal box plots that show data points so I made this @mbostock @thisisalfie https://t.co/cQjDPhyZdw pic.twitter.com/y6RNmDB2p3
— Ulrik Lyngs (@ulyngs) June 28, 2017
https://t.co/jkaicC1F2x
made a pkg for pirate plots in ggplot: add any of points/means/bars/CIs/violins \u2013 better than ye olde bar/box plotshttps://t.co/Z2m2kW3hsl pic.twitter.com/npAirPQexM
— Mika Braginsky (@mbraginsky) September 28, 2017
https://t.co/PpxWT4Jef4
See the new #PowerBI visual awesomeness for data points & sources, box-&-whisker plots! https://t.co/dOmgoxWfDE pic.twitter.com/HAUOAMJEJW
— Microsoft Power BI (@MSPowerBI) February 1, 2016
All modern research questions frame your mindset and self-frame research paradigm. Broad thinking: how little of everything can a citizen survive on; how cheap can your upkeep be? /1
When an American patient lands in an Austrian hospital for a back problem, a doctor tells him to perform a set of exercises.
- How many?
- Do you have anything else to do? /2
This interchange illustrates two mindsets colliding at bedside. How little can I get away with vs there is no limit to effort when it comes to your wellness. /3
When you were robbed of movement, somebody started selling you exercise. To understand that digging a ditch, to build a house, or to carry a child around, or waking to your grandparents for an hour is not the same as jogging on a treadmill... will reveal what research hides.
/4
When I talk about doing a purposeful activity outdoors, I look at complexity of movement, purpose, meaning, sun, and air, even an opportunity to meet a neighbor... that is now reduced to a calcium pill, vitamin D, an antidepressant, an osteoporosis shot, and an oxygen tank. /5
Is moderate exercise enough to live as long as possible, or should you be doing vigorous exercise? And what proportion is best? This article has the answers. https://t.co/YJqpaaI0UR
— Sebastian Rushworth M.D. (@sebrushworth) January 24, 2021
When an American patient lands in an Austrian hospital for a back problem, a doctor tells him to perform a set of exercises.
- How many?
- Do you have anything else to do? /2
This interchange illustrates two mindsets colliding at bedside. How little can I get away with vs there is no limit to effort when it comes to your wellness. /3
When you were robbed of movement, somebody started selling you exercise. To understand that digging a ditch, to build a house, or to carry a child around, or waking to your grandparents for an hour is not the same as jogging on a treadmill... will reveal what research hides.
/4
When I talk about doing a purposeful activity outdoors, I look at complexity of movement, purpose, meaning, sun, and air, even an opportunity to meet a neighbor... that is now reduced to a calcium pill, vitamin D, an antidepressant, an osteoporosis shot, and an oxygen tank. /5
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THREAD PART 1.
On Sunday 21st June, 14 year old Noah Donohoe left his home to meet his friends at Cave Hill Belfast to study for school. #RememberMyNoah💙
He was on his black Apollo mountain bike, fully dressed, wearing a helmet and carrying a backpack containing his laptop and 2 books with his name on them. He also had his mobile phone with him.
On the 27th of June. Noah's naked body was sadly discovered 950m inside a storm drain, between access points. This storm drain was accessible through an area completely unfamiliar to him, behind houses at Northwood Road. https://t.co/bpz3Rmc0wq
"Noah's body was found by specially trained police officers between two drain access points within a section of the tunnel running under the Translink access road," said Mr McCrisken."
Noah's bike was also found near a house, behind a car, in the same area. It had been there for more than 24 hours before a member of public who lived in the street said she read reports of a missing child and checked the bike and phoned the police.
On Sunday 21st June, 14 year old Noah Donohoe left his home to meet his friends at Cave Hill Belfast to study for school. #RememberMyNoah💙
He was on his black Apollo mountain bike, fully dressed, wearing a helmet and carrying a backpack containing his laptop and 2 books with his name on them. He also had his mobile phone with him.
On the 27th of June. Noah's naked body was sadly discovered 950m inside a storm drain, between access points. This storm drain was accessible through an area completely unfamiliar to him, behind houses at Northwood Road. https://t.co/bpz3Rmc0wq
"Noah's body was found by specially trained police officers between two drain access points within a section of the tunnel running under the Translink access road," said Mr McCrisken."
Noah's bike was also found near a house, behind a car, in the same area. It had been there for more than 24 hours before a member of public who lived in the street said she read reports of a missing child and checked the bike and phoned the police.
