Categories Politics
2/I had seen on social media before I arrived that Trump trains were happening locally and I was curious to see if he had gained meaningful ground (You know by now that Hillary won there in 2016 by 33 and 41 percentage points respectively.) ex:
This is the RGV where my wife Debbie (@debber66) grew up. it\u2019s the bluest part of Texas and mostly Hispanic. She never thought she would see the day! #Maga2020 #RGV https://t.co/ziPTmgjhWB
— Dinesh D'Souza (@DineshDSouza) November 3, 2020
3/I also wanted to see what it was like, in a red state allegedly turning purple, to be in a blue region that may have been moving in the opposite direction.
4/Aside from Twitter, it was hard to find coverage of the Trump trains (which, according to locals, had been going on every weekend for at least a month, with hundreds involved) or of growing local enthusiasm for Trump.
5/Late morning, I spoke to @MorganGrahamGOP, the first Latina head of the Cameron County Republicans, who expected modest but meaningful gains. “I don’t think he’s going to break 40%, but mid-high 30s. That doesn’t seem like a lot to folks,” she said, but in the RGV, it was.
...Some of the Extremely Online Left in the US has deluded itself into thinking that the far right insurgency is a bluecollar movement (a bit like how both Blue Labour centrists and the Trot/Stalinist left in the UK persuaded itself Brexit is a working class victory)...
(of course, we know now the 6 January rioters were CEOs, lawyers, cops and whitecollar GOP activists https://t.co/vNW2JLzrye HT @FFRAFAction )
2/ While it’s long been routine for wealthy interests seeking to buy access and influence over a president to do so by making large political contributions to his campaign and allied groups, it’s unique to President Trump that these groups personally enrich him in the process.
3/ We've tracked 137 of these events since the day Trump took office. https://t.co/toIW0EJOyK
4/ And some of the big spenders have gotten their money's worth, as the NYT laid out earlier this month in a detailed report partly based on our data
5/ Groups large and small have learned that holding expensive events that the president profits from is a part of doing business in Trump's Washington, and it's paying off.
Take the AHRI, which spent $700k at Doral, and got a favorable decision within weeks
Statewide: 2,097,269 (+26,075)
Fulton: 272,057 (+14,360)
Gwinnett: 182,924 (+9,753)
Columbia: 32,920 (+175)
Houston: 32,876 (+126)
Cherokee: 53,860 (+320)
Forsyth: 58,066 (+437)
Coweta: 26,575 (+203)
I'll post the rates tomorrow with the racial breakdown. For now, let's go with the raw totals.
What do we have from today? Well, Democrats probably added about 8K votes to their margin, per @joe__gantt's estimates. That's not as much as they'd have been hoping for, to be blunt.
But let's also remember that the second weekend in the general election was a pro-GOP day. So this is certainly not the worst-case scenario everyone worried about. All of that helps the Democrats. They'd have liked more, but...it's Boxing Day.
In the general election, for example, our estimate was that Biden won the first two days of early voting, three of the four weekend days, and Trump won basically every other day of early voting pic.twitter.com/9JID24eq3I
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) December 15, 2020
Tomorrow, it appears as if DeKalb, Columbia, Fulton, and Gwinnett are open. This will likely result in another pro-Democratic day, but almost certainly with more votes cast. How much? I got no idea, but probably around 30K-40K. So Democrats will look to add about 10K to the lead.
We'll enter the last 4 days of early voting with approximately a (roughly) 190K vote lead for Democrats, in all likelihood. That'll leave the GOP with some ground to make up.
This is one of the starkest and clearest misinformation paths I've seen lately. And I can't stress this enough, this path is VERY well-known among misinformation reporters & researchers.
It started with tweets from folks like Pam Bondi & Rudy Giuliani that Real Clear Politics had "rescinded" its call that PA went to Biden. That was picked up and repeated verbally in a YouTube video. Then the YouTube video was shared in private FB groups
The YouTube video! Is on a verified account! Running ADS! And it gained nearly 900,000 views in just 12 hours, largely because of shares on Facebook. YT says this doesn't violate its rules 🤯 https://t.co/04METfLeOq
MEANWHILE ON FACEBOOK—a CrowdTangle search shows most of this activity is in PRIVATE FB groups, beyond what researchers and journalists can see.
Only 2.5 percent of FB activity—likes, shares, comments—is visible on public FB. I truly am *losing my mind* https://t.co/04METfLeOq
Daryl sounded the alarm back in 2009. His report was politicized by the GOP. He warned that white supremacy was on the rise.
He knows of what he speaks.
I strongly advise reading Hateland by Daryl Johnson & Breaking Hate by @cpicciolini to understand
https://t.co/KxKMWmYzH9
\u201can economic catastrophe negatively affects resistance to radicalization on a massive scale.\u201d
— \u029f\u1d1c\u029f\u1d1c \u029f\u1d07 \u1d0d\u1d07\u1d21 \u1555( \u0361 \u0361\xb0\u2038\u21bc\u2036)\u1557 (@LuluLemew) May 30, 2020
\u2014 Hateland
https://t.co/gH4G1KwcwV
\U0001f4cd\u201d...a catastrophe that destroys families and careers while frequently leaving people angry, confused, despondent, and aggrieved will certainly increase the overall chances of radicalization across a whole population or country.\u201d
— \u029f\u1d1c\u029f\u1d1c \u029f\u1d07 \u1d0d\u1d07\u1d21 \u1555( \u0361 \u0361\xb0\u2038\u21bc\u2036)\u1557 (@LuluLemew) May 30, 2020
https://t.co/zH1lgd7kTh
External economic factors influenced internal psychological processes of radicalization, eroding personal inhibitors on a massive scale.
— \u029f\u1d1c\u029f\u1d1c \u029f\u1d07 \u1d0d\u1d07\u1d21 \u1555( \u0361 \u0361\xb0\u2038\u21bc\u2036)\u1557 (@LuluLemew) May 30, 2020
Though ..not the only factor.. economic devastation of the farm crisis sowed seeds of rage that blossomed in the early 1990s.
\u2014 Hateland
Johnson staged a conspiracy Senate panel of covid vaccine skeptics, anti-maskers, and fake drug promoters just weeks ago. He is avidly pro-covid in addition to spreading Hunter Biden conspiracies and saying Biden stole the election with "voter
Every mainstream news outlet, not just @MeetThePress, books conspiracy theorists because they believe Republicans deserve a platform to spread their misinformation. This is not journalism and @chucktodd does not care one wink about it
Ron Johnson is also an outspoken climate denier. He has spoken about this 40,000 times because it helps him politically. He is a conspiracy theorist.
Yet @chucktodd invites him on MTP despite saying two years ago he wouldn't book climate
Ron Johnson lied about Hunter Biden having child pornography on his computer
Ron Johnson is a guest on Meet the Press on Sunday because @chucktodd does nothing to stop the spread of misinformation
Ron Johnson is on Fox News suggesting there's child pornography on the computer that purportedly belongs to Hunter Biden pic.twitter.com/rwvyL1UH4i
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 18, 2020
Harvard\u2019s Institute of Politics has removed @RepStefanik from its Senior Advisory Committee.
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) January 12, 2021
In a letter to other members of the committee, Dean of the Faculty of the Kennedy School Doug Elmendorf writes...
1.
This is Third World tactics.
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) January 6, 2021
Pay overtime, get better help, work late, demand better.
This is why millions of voters distrust the system. https://t.co/cRzBhp9Mrh
2.
Brad Raffensperger is imploding after his phone call was leaked.
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) January 4, 2021
People are now seeing he isn\u2019t doing his job. https://t.co/Gl1PrhPXNe
3.
Why hasn\u2019t the media insisted on knowing the details about the ballots under the table?
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) January 3, 2021
At the very least, the law was violated by kicking observers out before the suitcases were unloaded. https://t.co/JuLLasMdCR
4.
Fact: Clark County officials threw out a County Commissioners\u2019 race (158k votes) because they didn\u2019t trust the process.
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) January 3, 2021
Then when the Trump campaign filed suit to throw out the whole ballot (not just one race) they flipped their decision and certified the race. @MajorCBS
how we found out about Zients' purchase of a surprise medical billing operation. (btw, "long term holdings" wannabe Berkshire Hathaway funds like Cranemere engage in EXTENSIVE due diligence, they knew what they were doing). https://t.co/9bXcWYhg0s (2/x)
How do you write about @revolvingdoorDC criticism of Zients without taking into account Zeints' leading role in NorthStar Anesthesia? (3/x)
Does @DaHalperin maybe have some thoughts about Zients, the predatory for profit Kaplan college empire, and the Washington Post???? https://t.co/u7UIKAZ2bF (4/x)
What did NorthStar -- that Zients buddies at the Post Editorial Board think is unimportant -- do? During Cranemere's due diligence AND post-purchase, they engaged in surprise medical billing. (5/x)