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Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Yes, actually that's kind of the problem these days.

All the 🔥takes will be shown to be wrong once the voter file data & analysis like this one w the FULL RESULTS get done, which is why I'VE NOT PUBLISHED MY 🔥TAKE IN NYT yet

We'll have to decide if we want it fast, or right

 There is ONE STORY in elections right now and its education. Its not rural vs urban, or Black and White, Latino and White

Its educated versus non-educated

And its global
1. I'll add that it's very imp that Ds understand, crystal clear, this fact (that edu is the divide that rules all other divides). After Parscale's success in 2020 the GOP will now double down on their efforts to come after non-college educated, non-white voters bc now they KNOW
2. they're gettable. The 2018 and 2020 cycle were "feelers." No doubt donors and strategists were skeptical. Now they have the analytic proof and the $ will be flowing. This is one reason that I decided that I had to get into electioneering myself. Someone is going to need to be
3. there talking to these voters from the Left (and talking to them with effective messaging- for ex they don't give two shits about insider trading corruption) or you'll see even more erosion in the D's vote share among non-college educated non-white voters, I'm sure of it. Its
4. total bullshit! Actually, its evil as fuck! The GOP wants nothing less than to screw these voters over. But they WILL use them to win elections- you better believe it. And where education comes into it is that exposure to college makes an individual far less likely to be
5. sensitive to anti-democratic messaging like limiting the speech of groups you don't like, support for curtailing freedom, and now, believe or not, attempting an anti-democratic coup. https://t.co/c1QRkQcmh1
6. This is bc the liberal arts curriculum exposes students to classes that teach them how government works, what the Bill of Rights does and how it works, history, and increasingly, classes that highlight multiculturalism, diversity, equality, etc. A conservative by today's
7. unfortunate definition of a conservative is right to look at the college curriculum and see it as hostile to conservatism. Note though, my use of the word unfortunate. That is bc modern conservatism made diversity, racial equality, gender equality partisan issues so now these
8. areas/issues are seen as Democratic Party indoctrination. Its a HUGE problem for the Republican Party that gender equality is no longer seen as a non-partisan objective. There is also an economic element to the education divide- obviously many people who lack college degrees
9. are more economically stressed than their degreed counterparts- but it is VERY important to understand this is not a pure correlation by a LONG SHOT. Many very economically well-off white men who lack college degrees are full MAGA. Not attending college, not
10. only bc they missed out on the course curriculum that might have given them the critical reasoning skills to understand why something like a Muslim ban is a bad idea, for example, also meant they never lived in a dorm where their roommate was Jewish, or Muslim! Maybe never
11. was exposed to Democrats (bc in rural America, you may never see one and thus, your perception of a Democrat relies entirely on the intentionally dehumanized version that is presented to you on right-wing media. I had students like this all the time. And they were on a very
12. small, conservative campus- nothing like one of the big state universities! Still, they'd tell me how eye opening being at CNU was- how much their impressions of different groups of people changed once they'd actually seen and met them. That's why we see in the data that even
13. some time in college matters to people's political behavior.

More from Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌

Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. In some respects @IgnatiusPost is right- @JoeBiden's cabinet IS built for comfort- BUT its imp to rem the context.

That comfort is a function of the extensive exp this cabinet has- the antithesis of Trump's appointments.

This country NEEDS the antithesis of Trump's cabinet


2. But its also built for another purpose. Its built to be an olive branch to one man- @senatemajldr who is expected to yield either total control over confirmation, or at the least, great influence. Its meant to signal to him that Biden is serious



2. about his "governing for all" campaign pledge & asking for a reset moment in American politics post-Trump. Something he continues to hope for even as more than 1/2 of the House GOP Caucus signs onto an amicus brief to the Supreme Court of the United States that argues to end

3. democracy itself, as @SteveSchmidtSES articulates so clearly in this video that every American should see. Biden could not have presented to the GOP Senate, to McConnell, a more serious peace offering than this cabinet and its a good move that if it

4. works would pull America back from the brink of a civic collapse. So it MUST be tried even if people like myself think the odds of success are depressingly low. It simply MUST BE TRIED. BC if we are to plummet off the cliff, it needs to McConnell & the GOP who on their own are
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. "They're leaving! They're leaving!"" yell seditionist as they watch House members fleeing the floor through the glass doors the only thing (+ some under-armed officers + office furniture" that protected our elected REPs (same ballot as Trump, each & everyone

@McConnellPress

2. of them felt so inclined towards martyrdom and/or possessed the weapons (Jesus, what if they'd has a grenade & guess what, in America, yes, you can come up w functional equivalents of that bc barring people from them is a betrayal of freedom so great we must simply acquiesce

3. their eventual death tolls. One functional "freedom grenade" down that hallway, tossed w ease through a hole in the glass door, could have easily hit anyone fleeing.Unless it was Mo Brooks, MTG, or one of their well-known crazy boosters, here's a thing @LeaderMcConnell ought

4. to reflect upon as he makes his CRITCAL pivot decision, which he could rally 17 people & start a fight for control of the party that rest of the country will help him with,EVEN AFTER ALL THE SHIT HE'S DONE TO PEOPLE, YES, THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WOULD HELP HIM IF HE WAS TO

5. RALLY 17 SENATORS FOR IMPEACHMENT, he'd find his whole 🌎awakened. And Mitch, as far as I understand it, you could do it anonymously!! How much would THAT fuck w them?? How great would it be, for the 1st time in 5 yrs, to be the one w power- you LOVE power! Think of the FUN!
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. I think so. I don't think the issue are plans. The issue is that the ability of our govn't to function-to create & enact policy- has been seriously abridged the past decade to the point where it can't function. We've seen virtually no legislation this past decade & pretty


2. much none relying on just "regular order." Although the Ds spent almost a year trying w the ACA before giving up & using a procedural trick in the end. Keep in mind, McConnell changed the operation of senate so that all bills, ALL, had to reach 60 vote threshold in the senate

3. That was a MASSIVE change to the legislative filibuster (a massive abuse of it). It creates a super majority requirement for laws that the Framers didn't design. And given the issue of misrepresentation the senate, which is causing a Tyranny of the Minority, its really shut

4. down the federal lawmaking apparatus. If Ds flip these 2 GA senate seats, the legislative filibuster will be right back in the spotlight bc McConnell will use it to lockdown Biden's legislative agenda. And we'll have to see how Biden responds. I agree that Biden needs to give

5. McConnell an opp to change his behavior, but if he doesn't Biden will have to go w EOs or ending the legislative filibuster. Either that, or getting nothing done. The GOP will seek to do to him what they did to Obama- use control of the senate OR the filibuster to prevent
CRYPTO
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. Ok, I'm liking @RepSeanMaloney

"I sure as hell didn't win 5 Xs as a gay guy in a Trump district"

Much more imp he just correctly pointed out that even liberal MSNBC gives the GOP a major assist by constantly talking about Defund the Police, socialism, & intraparty fighting

2. and @JoeNBC is right, in my "modernized moderates" plan, you have to have these candidates go on offense. Its CRAZY that @SpanbergerVA07 is defending her record as a moderate when she's running against an ideologue in Nick Freitas.

If you ask the wrong questions & ask them

3. the wrong way, the evidence & data will screw you. Such as it did in 2020 because there is no reality in which Dem congressional/senate candidates were well-served by pulling out all their registration and in-person voter contact while the GOP was doing it. It was a bold

4. decision that someone, looking at the weak or inconsistent findings of research on effects of GOTV and esp the diff between in-person and "remote" forms and decided "you know, there is likely no diff from in-person and remote & in fact, remote you can contact WAY more people."

5. And the fact is, maybe this is right. Maybe the Ds total bomb on the congressional map has nothing to do with the decision to suspend the field programs of the House & Senate campaigns. Maybe. I'll be interested in the analysis when the voter file is updated I'll be looking at
TRUMP
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. We've got @dananessel, killin' like usual on messaging w @HallieJackson on @MSNBC stating, objectively (accurately) that if SCOTUS were to grant the relief sought by TX & these other states & invalidate the votes of millions of Americans due to COMPLETELY FABRICATED claims of

2. of fraud, it would be the end of democracy in America. PERIOD. It would serve, functionally, as the moment of SC's succession, Dec 20, 1860 & also as a function of anti-democratic, unpatriotic, and TREASONOUS behavior post a presidential election they simply didn't want to

3. accept and spend 4 years living under. So instead, they "invalidated" it by refusing to continue to be part of the U.S. Here, if the Court was to play along (and to be crystal clear, the ONLY constitutional, pro-America position here is a full and unequivocal rejection of this

4. suit and frankly, a "supreme" legal tongue lashing at the ideologues that now control the modern Republican Party and by controlling it, have now forced the United States of America into its first constitutional crisis since the fields of her were strewn with bodies and blood

5. as she ripped herself apart to rid herself of her original sin of slavery, and in that process lost 620,000 Americans which at that time was 2% of the country's population. That Trump & his good squad fabricated a story of trucks in the night sneaking in 100Ks worth of ballots
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David Bier
David Bier
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My piece in the NY Times today: "the Trump administration is denying applications submitted to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services at a rate 37 percent higher than the Obama administration did in 2016."

Based on this analysis: "Denials for immigration benefits—travel documents, work permits, green cards, worker petitions, etc.—increased 37 percent since FY 2016. On an absolute basis, FY 2018 will see more than about 155,000 more denials than FY 2016." https://t.co/Bl0naOO0sh


"This increase in denials cannot be credited to an overall rise in applications. In fact, the total number of applications so far this year is 2 percent lower than in 2016. It could be that the higher denial rate is also discouraging some people from applying at all.."

Thanks to @gsiskind for his insightful comments. The increase in denials, he said, is “significant enough to make one think that Congress must have passed legislation changing the requirements. But we know they have not.”

My conclusion:
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Heshmat Alavi
Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
THREAD

1)
@SidneyPowell1 reflects on #Iran’s meddling in the U.S. in a recent tweet to U.S. President Donald Trump.

This thread focuses on Iran’s dangerous influence in the U.S., especially through its DC-based lobby group


2)
Why is this important?

@DNI_Ratcliffe "told CBS News that there was foreign election interference by China, #Iran & Russia in November of this year [2020]."

All Americans should be informed about how Iran & its lobby group NIAC are meddling in the


3)
#Iran has been increasingly aiming to interfere in U.S. elections specifically through NIAC.

DNI John Ratcliffe had previously shed light on this vital


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NIAC is a lobby group in the U.S. pushing Iran’s talking points.

Listen to this Iranian regime insider explain that NIAC was established by @JZarif, the foreign minister of


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@tparsi is the official founder of NIAC in the U.S.

Listen to how Trita Parsi parrots Zarif’s talking
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Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) Pre-election Russia collusion may take down Trump. It's equally possible the Trumps' pre- and post-election collusion with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel will do it—a course of collusion also connected to the Kremlin. I explain here. I hope you'll read on and retweet.


1/ I must stress how unbelievably complex the "Grand Bargain" theory of the Trump-Russia case is—a different thing from saying it's not substantiated. It's substantiated in *almost every single particular*—it just *also* happens to be very confusing. Not byzantine—just confusing.

2/ The basics: Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the UAE all view Iran as their chief regional enemy. Iran is propped up by Russia. Therefore the Saudis, Israelis, and Emiratis all need a US government willing to find a way to get the Kremlin to *stop* supporting Iran in the Middle East.

3/ The best way to get Russia to stop supporting Iran—or reduce support—was/is to drop all sanctions on Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea, as that'd be worth *trillions* to the Kremlin over the next decade. Everyone knew that Clinton wouldn't do this—and that Trump would.

4/ Per the NYT, on August 3, 2016, Donald Trump Jr. met secretly at Trump Tower with a Saudi and Emirati emissary, George Nader, as well as an Israeli intelligence expert, Joel Zamel, with *significant* ties to both Israeli intelligence *and* Russian oligarchs allied with Putin.
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Dirk Schwenk (Esq) \U0001f3b5
Dirk Schwenk (Esq) 🎵...
@DirkSchwenk
Ruben Verastigui is (allegedly) a horrifying pedo monster and has been on the digital teams for the @SenateGOP, National @GOP and the Trump campaign. I didn't want to talk about him, but I think it's important.


The allegations against RV are among the most horrifying I have read. It involves possessing and sharing images of rape of infants and plans to take action in the real world of that nature. I don't really recommend reading the details, but they are here.

These allegations were first brought to light by @jaredlholt who has an excellent thread. He warns people that they may want to avoid the end of the thread because it includes shots of the specific allegations. I make the same warning.


RV was a main stage speaker at the 2013 March For Life.

RV did a headshot for Ronna McDaniel, GOP Chairwoman
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Mangy Jay
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@magi_jay
I don't think that "Democrats were cowards and couldn't stand up to McConnell" is the correct framing. Dems clearly made a political calculation. Plenty to potentially criticize about that calculation, but it was informed by factors unrelated to generalized "fear of republicans"

What we largely know now:
-There would never have been enough GOP votes to convict
-GOP had the power to hold up *all* Senate business & that means COVID relief (Dems would have been blamed for this hold up)
-Witnesses were uncooperative & would have had to have been subpoenaed

So I think the correct framing is that Democrats made a political calculation that the benefit of adding witnesses (who would not change the outcome) was not worth the political & moral cost of holding up COVID relief, as well as important confirmations. . . .

This calculation can be criticized on its own merits, but it's categorically different than just being scared of McConnell & the GOP.

For my own part, I think an error Democrats made w/r/t witnesses was not calling cooperative police officers who had been attacked that day. Just a few personal narratives from the police would have deeply embarrassed the GOP. That's a missed opportunity, in my view.
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Have you ever wondered why the sons and daughters of the colonial chiefs and guards who were collaborators live a good life while those of the MAU MAU fighters live in abject poverty?

***THREAD***


It should be known that the colonialists reached a point that they knew they had 2 leave Kenya since they couldn't handle the Mau Mau war & the world was moving toward accepting independent Africa.However,the colonialists devised an evil scheme that still eats Kenya upto this day

Under this scheme, the colonial state came up with a plan that saw the first crop of chiefly “big men” being empowered financially to take their children to schools and eventually have those children go to England for further studies...

...and eventually providing a ready-made socio-economic & political class whom state power could be entrusted in the post-colonial era.This explains why their children & grandchildren still hold majority of important positions in govt or in the private sector supported by state.

This also explains why children and grandchildren of these homeguards are always given preferential treatment when it comes to government appointments. Wewe na masomo yako you are always asking why you can never get a job in government...yet you're qualified..now you know.
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1/ new essay: What's next for marketplace startups? Reinventing the $10 trillion service economy, that's what. Co-authored with @ljin18 https://t.co/fgKbrHTnH5. A short thread 👇

2/ Marketplace startups have done incredibly well over the first few decades of the internet, reinventing the way we shop for goods, but have been less successful services. It's bc services are complex, subjective, fragmented, and often in real life. Makes it hard

3/ There's been 4 major eras at making the service economy work online. The Listings Era, the unbundled Craiglist era, the Uber for X era, and the Managed Marketplace era


4/ Each era has added more value than the last, and utilized technology innovations, from internet to social / "read/write web" to mobile. The "Unbundling Craigslist" era was particularly epic at generating startup ideas


5/ The problem is, all the low-hanging fruit has been picked off. The techniques that got us to here won't get us to the next phase. So we have to do some pretty different things. That's why "Managed Marketplaces" have been a big deal - hire folks as W-2s, certify quality, etc.
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THE LAST STAND OF PAVAN KHIND - THE 300 BATTLE OF INDIA

A long🧵that u must read

In desperate times, great men come forth. Those men who are ready to sacrifice all of their lives work for a single cause.

Baji Prabhu Deshpande is one such man.

1/25


Battle was between the Maratha Warrior Baji Prabhu Deshpande and Sidi Masoud of Adil Shahi Sultanate.

In 1660, the Maratha King Shri Chhatrapati Shivaji was trapped in the fort of Panhala, under siege and vastly outnumbered by an Adilshahis army led by Sidi Masoud.

2/25

And while everyone is thinking that finally the Maratha king will be subdued, Shivaji planned to escape to the fort of Vishalgadh. It was administered by a Maratha chieftain named Range Narayan Orpe under Shivaji.

3/25

For months the siege warfare continued as Shivaji made sure that the food source of the Besieging army drops down, due to which they will initiate a general assault on the castle.

4/25

Shivaji, Baji Prabhu, and around 600 of their best troops, hardened mountaineers of the Maval region, would dash through the Adilshahis force at night.

A man named Shiva Kashid, who resembled Shivaji in appearance, had volunteered to dress like the king and get captured.

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1. Let's talk about the effects of #climatechange on the world's forests, with a focus on the northwest of Canada. This is also about electoral #greenwash, and my duty as public servant and right as private Canadian citizen to speak freely about what I know.

2. Why am I compelled to speak? How am I free to speak? The answer is in the federal Values and Ethics Code of Coduct (VECC).


3. It can be career-limiting to criticize government policy when you work for government. Duty of Loyalty is very, very important. However, as VECC makes clear, it is not absolute. In fact SCoC has ruled twice in favour of citizen free speech as a higher ideal. In 1985 and 2001.

4. I am therefore perfectly comfortable showing you the scary things that are happening in the North under a warming climate. A failure to meet global GHG emissions targets is hurting Canada's forests in a way we used to think wouldn't happen for decades.

5. Warming temperatures and rising [CO2] could, in theory, help green the planet with more vigorous tree growth. But that's not what's happening. Don't believe the #greenwash. The positive effects are over and it is warm enough that we are now starting the into the negative.
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