As @AndrewSparrow at the @guardian points out, Johnson led Vote Leave and then wrote the following in the Telegraph after the referendum result. Line by line analysis of the key part?: /1

"I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be."

Well, he can't change geography, but the centre of gravity in politics and economics in Europe is not in the UK, and the UK is relegated to the periphery with a very limited relationship to the EU. /2
"There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment."

No: no partnership and none will intensify. Env only because EU insistence on LPF? /3
"EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU."

No: 'settled status' not the same for EU citizens and Windrush-type scandal expected. /4
"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down."

No: free movement ('proudly') ended. Short visits only, visas for work, massive bureaucracy. Only Brits with a 2nd nationality keep the benefits. /5
"As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market."

No: Access not same as membership. UK has no say over EU rules that exporters must apply. UK's services economy will suffer. /6
"Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership..."

Maybe: but who will listen? UK-US 'special relationship' also depended on UK being 'bridge' with EU. Ditto, for trade, with Japan. /7
"...giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing."

Maybe: but again, who wants to be 'led'? UK not part of EU foreign policy structures. NATO, 5-eyes remain but unclear who UK will be 'leading'. Commonwealth? No. /8
In short, any deal is probably better than the chaos of #nodeal. But it must be compared to (a) what EU membership meant and (b) what was promised. In light of the above, it will fall well short by any measure. /END

More from Politics

My piece in the NY Times today: "the Trump administration is denying applications submitted to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services at a rate 37 percent higher than the Obama administration did in 2016."

Based on this analysis: "Denials for immigration benefits—travel documents, work permits, green cards, worker petitions, etc.—increased 37 percent since FY 2016. On an absolute basis, FY 2018 will see more than about 155,000 more denials than FY 2016."
https://t.co/Bl0naOO0sh


"This increase in denials cannot be credited to an overall rise in applications. In fact, the total number of applications so far this year is 2 percent lower than in 2016. It could be that the higher denial rate is also discouraging some people from applying at all.."

Thanks to @gsiskind for his insightful comments. The increase in denials, he said, is “significant enough to make one think that Congress must have passed legislation changing the requirements. But we know they have not.”

My conclusion:

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