BC POLITICS
Saved by @Jacobtldr

I shared my thoughts on the election in the introduction of today's "Wolf Den Newsletter." Although it was written for paid members, I thought it appropriate to share it on Twitter as well for election day.

Here is the thread, I hope it helps you remain calm.

 1/ Keep Calm And Carry On.

This phrase was emblazoned on a motivational poster produced by the British government in 1939 in preparation for World War II.
2/ The poster was intended to raise the morale of the British public, threatened with widely predicted mass air attacks on major cities.

The importance of these words rings true in every age, particularly today - Election Day in the United States.
3/ The people of the entire world are collectively holding their breath, awaiting the results of the US election. Markets are bracing for impact and people are boarding up windows, closing up shop and preparing for the worst.
4/ This is a huge moment, and the result will have implications that reverberate for years to come.

But everything will be ok… no matter who wins and no matter what happens in the coming days, weeks and months.

Take a deep breath.
5/ Like any pivotal event in history, the long term trajectory of progress remains unchanged - elections tend to be bumps in the road. This is similar to markets.
6/ While recessions and depressions are horrid when they are happening, they rarely change the path of assets over the long term. Markets, like human progress, trend up
7/ When you zoom out far enough, The Great Depression and every other market crash were the best buying opportunities of all time for patient investors. Whichever side you are on, there will be another election in a few years, another chance to make a change.
8/ Temporary pain for long term gain.

We could talk about the election and its potential implications endlessly, but what you are here for is to discuss markets.
9/ I have no special insight as to what is likely to happen in the coming weeks, either for deciding the President or for our beloved assets. That said, knowing that markets hate uncertainty, I expect a rise in volatility for financial assets until we have a clear winner.
10/ Trump or Biden, it is unlikely to matter. Markets just want a decision.

I have discussed the impact of a regime change previously in the newsletter, so I will spare you the details. The clear conclusion is that there is no clear conclusion!
11/ Markets have not reacted in a predictable pattern to a new Democrat or Republican leader. The notion that Biden’s election will crash markets is not based in history or in fact, but rather in emotion and media talking points.
12/ Equally unconvincing is that markets will continue to rise because Trump is elected, or that we will see more market stability.

We don’t know.

We have seen a noticeable rise in stocks over the past two days leading into the election.
13/ The assumption here is that a Biden victory, coupled with the Democrats taking the House would lead to a greater chance of further stimulus, which would be good for the market in the short term
14/ This indicates that the markets are reacting more to the promise of stimulus than they are to the actual candidates. Biden is ahead in the polls (this does not mean he will win!), so the market is reacting.
15/ If you are looking for facts, here is S&P growth during first term under the last 5 Presidents. This is the only apt metric for comparison, because some of these Presidents never had a second term.
16/ Obama: 66.1%
Clinton: 62.1%
GHW Bush: 45.9%
Trump: 44.5%
GW Bush: -15.8%

There are caveats, narratives, historical context and other concepts to apply to these numbers. There were market crashes, recessions, bubbles, wars and global pandemics.

But these are facts.
17/ In the past 30 years, a change of party or leader has not meaningfully impacted the market over their first 4 years, outside of George W. Bush. Trump’s first 4 years have been roughly around the average.
18/ Regardless, only once has the market dropped over a 4 year period after the election of a new President.

The market may go haywire for a bit as things are sorted out. My advice?
Zoom out and relax.

It’s going to be fine.

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2/ Imagine if the EU said finally all those retired Brits in the EU27 could go home

3/ Imagine if the EU said finally all those Brits in the EU could stop driving down wages, taking jobs and stop sending benefits back to the UK

4/ Imagine if the EU said it was looking to use UK citizens as “bargaining chips” to get a better trade deal

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Funny, before the election I recall lefties muttering the caravan must have been a Trump setup because it made the open borders crowd look so bad. Why would the pro-migrant crowd engineer a crisis that played into Trump's hands? THIS is why. THESE are the "optics" they wanted.


This media manipulation effort was inspired by the success of the "kids in cages" freakout, a 100% Stalinist propaganda drive that required people to forget about Obama putting migrant children in cells. It worked, so now they want pics of Trump "gassing children on the border."

There's a heavy air of Pallywood around the whole thing as well. If the Palestinians can stage huge theatrical performances of victimhood with the willing cooperation of Western media, why shouldn't the migrant caravan organizers expect the same?

It's business as usual for Anarchy, Inc. - the worldwide shredding of national sovereignty to increase the power of transnational organizations and left-wing ideology. Many in the media are true believers. Others just cannot resist the narrative of "change" and "social justice."

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As usual is maddening how easy this is to understand and how much everyone refuses to understand it. There are two things happening here, and they aren't super hard to understand. There's the asshole administration and the asshole reporter.

The court said asshole administration revoked asshole Jim Acosta's press pass without due process. WH deemed him press, gave him a press pass, then they kicked him out without even being able to say who made the decision or on what grounds.

We want hostile, combative reporters. We **want** that. **You** want that. We want that because the press secretary of every single administration is a liar. Even the ones you like. Lying is their job. They show up to avoid answering, but give the appearance of being answerable.

It shouldn't be easy for government to just refuse to be answerable. It should be hard to dodge. Hard to kick people out. Hard to control the narrative. That shouldn't be easy for the gov't. Not even your most favoritest president.

You, the American citizen, want the truth. Reporters should be there to get it. That means asking questions doggedly, demanding answers. This is not an obscure idea. It should be obvious to anyone who's experienced having a president you didn't vote for. Super rare right?
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A lot has been said about LKJ since he died yesterday and I hope only to contribute my perspective to enrich all said.

My emphasis with history has always been to draw out lessons relevant to the present, to show how trends repeat themselves and to show certain hypocritical contradictions within the present system.

Only few others qualify as well as LKJ to do all the three - I hope I do justice.

One area pundits have largely missed out in the Jakande story is the very beginning - both of his life and of his politics.

LKJ's parents were from Omu-Aran in present day Kwara State but he contributed more to Lagos than so many others - we will return to this subsequently.

LKJ was not originally a political ally of Awolowo - a number of elders were with Awo right from the very beginning but LKJ contributed politically to Awolowo at a crucial time of religious threat to the dominance of the Action Group (Awo's party) in the pre-Independence mid 50s.

A group had been formed in 1957 and named the National Muslim League headed by Alhaji R.A. Smith who had been very critical of Awolowo's AG as a Christian party and moved to align with the Northern People's Congress of Sir Ahmadu Bello.

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