Hello, friends. Today is Election Day! And that means it’s …

As most of you know, I’ve spent the last several months building and tweaking my own Presidential election model to predict the outcome.

My hypothesis is that President Trump’s share of the vote will be pretty close to his polling averages and job approval rating since this election is going to primarily be a referendum on him.

Assuming total 3rd party vote margins revert back to normal after an unusually high percentage in 2016, the remainder of the votes will, by default, go to Joe Biden.

We won’t know if I’m right until after all the votes are counted (which will take at least a week, as per usual), but that’s how I came up with the following numbers.

Not much has changed since my last update a month ago. Donald Trump lost a couple of points in the polls after he was diagnosed with COVID-19 and then looks to have gained them back over the past few weeks to sit right around 43%.

Joe Biden has consistently polled at right around 52% for the past month. So, as of right now, this looks to be an 8-9-point race. Assuming these numbers reflect reality, and my hypothesis is correct, here is final prediction for the 2020 Presidential Election:

Popular Vote:
Joe Biden – 83.74 Million – 52.8% (+ 4.7% swing)
Donald Trump – 70.51 Million – 44.5% (- 1.6% swing)
Other (combined) – 4.25 Million – 2.7% (- 3.1% swing)
TOTAL - 158.5 Million (+16% from 2016)

Electoral Vote:
Joe Biden - 369
Donald Trump - 169

FAQ:

How confident are you in these results?

Joe Biden has been polling better than Hillary Clinton did 4 years ago overall, including with key demographic groups such as white voters, college-educated voters, seniors, and young voters.

Furthermore, he has held a very stable lead this entire campaign. If those key demographics I just mentioned constitute a higher-than-expected share of the total vote today, you could see Biden’s numbers exceed what I predict them to be.

I’m 95% certain Joe Biden will be elected the 46th President of the United States. I’m between 30% - 40% certain he’ll win by a double-digit landslide nationally.

I’m almost 100% certain Donald Trump has no chance of winning the national popular vote and can only be re-elected by keeping Joe Biden’s lead to within 4 points nationally and winning just enough votes in the right swing states to get just over the 270 electoral vote marker.

Will we have a call by networks on Election Night?

If Joe Biden’s national victory exceeds 9 points, I think we have a greater-than-50% chance of getting enough states called to put Biden above 270 electoral votes by 12am Pacific tonight.

I want to emphasize that I’m not saying it’s probable we’ll get a call tonight, but it is quite possible.

For more information on when each state’s polls close and how much of their vote we can expect to be counted and reported tonight, I encourage you to read this great breakdown by FiveThirtyEight: https://t.co/g3rYRWgLIL

What if the polls are underestimating Trump’s level of support and you shift everything 3 points in his favor? What does the electoral vote breakdown look like then?

A number of states flip from blue to red: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and Florida becomes decided by 0.1%.

Assuming Florida tilts over to Trump’s column just so, along with the rest of these states, Biden would win by a much slimmer electoral vote margin: 279 – 259. If this were to happen, it’d all come down to Pennsylvania being the tipping point state.

What if the polls are underestimating Biden’s level of support and you shift everything 3 points in his favor?

Iowa and Texas flip from red to blue. This would give Joe Biden 413 electoral votes and Donald Trump 125 electoral votes. This would be the largest Democratic margin of victory since Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater 486 - 52 in 1964.

What about the Senate and the House?

In the Senate, there are more vulnerable GOP seats that are likely to flip to Democrats than vice versa. I think Arizona, Colorado, Georgia (regular), Maine, and North Carolina for sure flip from red to blue.

I think the Democratic candidate in Georgia’s special election will come in 1st place but not win enough votes to exceed 50%; this will lead to a December run-off election. I also think Iowa, Montana, and South Carolina are tight and could easily also flip from red to blue.

On the other hand, I expect Alabama’s seat to flip from blue to red as Doug Jones would have to over-perform Biden’s numbers in that state by more than 10 points and I do not anticipate that happening.

So, on the low side for Democrats, I think the Senate ends up 51 – 48 with Democratic control. On the higher side, it could end up 54 – 45 with Georgia’s special election still to be decided.

Alaska, Kansas, and Texas could also be very close or possibly flip if Biden has a huge night and wins in a big double-digit landslide.

In the House, there are also more vulnerable GOP seats than Democratic seats. I think the Democrats will expand upon their current seat total of 232 and grow their majority. As of right now, I predict they will win at least 240 seats (a majority of at least +45 seats).

There you have it! I'll have a state-by-state breakdown of my predicted results later this morning. Results will start coming in at 4pm Pacific / 7pm Eastern this evening.

If you haven't voted yet, please mask up and go vote in person today (or drop you ballot off in a drop box). Happy Election Day everyone! 🇺🇸