Our review focuses on forest fires in southeast Australia (NSW + ACT + Victoria).
Excited to be able to share this comprehensive review on the many ways that climate change is increasing bushfire risk in southeast Australia, just published in @CommsEarth.
Thread 👇 describing what we found:
[paper is open
Our review focuses on forest fires in southeast Australia (NSW + ACT + Victoria).
*In their scale (23% of all southeast Australia forests were burnt)
*In their power (for every month of the spring and summer seasons), and
*In the number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events
Regional warming is part of human-caused global warming trend.
Dry conditions were part of a 3-year drought with consecutive winter rain failures. Long-term winter drying trend appears to be emerging.
And years of large bushfires in southeast Australia have clustered in the hot-&-dry quadrant of historical climate conditions
The phases of climate variability that increase fire risk in southeast Australia are El Niño events, positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and a negative Southern Annular Mode in the warm season.
In 2019 the compound effects of +IOD and -SAM increased the extent and severity of fire risk in southeast Australia.
Fire-promoting phases of tropical climate variability have now become more frequent than any time in the last several hundred years.
High FFDI reflects conditions where fuels burn readily and dangerous fire weather make fire difficult to control.
Despite this, FFDI has continued to be a good indicator of historical fires, including the #BlackSummer fires.
Radiative power and FFDI in southeast Australia were both the highest ever recorded in December of 2019.
*the largest forest burn area ever recorded, and
*the greatest number of extreme pyroconvective events ever observed.
FFDI emergence is greatest in spring/summer.
Emergence also evident in Vapour Pressure Deficit – one of the prime factors linked to increasing fire risk in other parts of the world.
Some of these changes are virtually certain, others still have moderate or only low scientific confidence.
Climate change is expected to increase fire risk in many ways, esp. through drier fuels and more dangerous fire weather
But climate change will continue to increase fire risk in southeast Australia, possibly at a very rapid rate.
https://t.co/jergTykcdf