Two year back thread on MFI, someone liked this so came up …

Trend Ratio suggests major long positions has been built into Nifty and BNF over the weekend. If tomorrow we trade above the upper levels, stay bullish. Break of the Balance levels will mean these longs are trapped and can lead to fast downsides

Will not be in markets tomorrow due to some personal work, hence posted this today.

Nifty short covering on Friday given the strong move in Nifty fut is obvious. But what's interesting is the huge short covering on BNF with only 0.5% upmove in price. Morning should be bullish, then watch out how the OI behaves

Lastly, all the calculations for Upper/Lower/Balance/Trend Ratio are my own development and I won't share the formula or process. So request stop asking me about those. Thanks.

Working on two quantitative logic to analyze intraday trend and volatility. Nifty fut and BN fut charts attached.
Intraday Trend :: Blue = Uptrend , Red = Downtrend , Yellow = No Trend

Intraday Volatility :: Red = Volatile , Yellow = Normal , Gray =Quiet

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

Nifty fut : rising Lows and Highs, showing a megaphone or broadening formation on 15 min charts. Though a bearish pattern, here it seems has broken out. 11k CEs on monthlies seems badly trapped. As long as the CE is > 140, will maintain a strong bullish stance

EOD charts. Rising after strong accumulation and volumes. COI going up with rise in price. Can have a fast upmove anytime now till 11300. View negated below 10900

BNF 15 min charts : showing FLAG formation. Breakout above 22400, trade negated below 22200. Targets given in chart. Also higher highs and higher lows

BNF also strong accumulation yesterday. This model is also showing continuous accumulation since 16th. Almost same levels given in earlier tweet

Now there are broad positional views, or the context. Trades now will be based on realtime data , option analysis etc. But these analysis suggests keeping a bullish bias on the indices while trading now unless this data changes drastically

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy

This friend had trouble making money in options though he was directionally right. Let us see how a basic understanding of greeks would have helped him, This thread will be about two attributes of option pricing, extrinsic value and theta

Sir, today #niftybank was continue making new high, but 31700 CE was struggling to go up. I bought at 140, some how managed to sell it at 200. I m ok, in identifying directional edge but options behave differently.
— Vikash Shrivastava\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3 (@VikashS28) May 27, 2019

An option has two parts, intrinsic and extrinsic value. Think of a pack of Lay's potato chips. When you buy and open the pack, what you find is some chips and a lot of air. Intrinsic value is the chips, extrinsic value is air

https://t.co/8ZPv4ZnCiL

https://t.co/icWmqSLENW

https://t.co/vHA6azEmbQ

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

When I first started learning different option strategies, long straddles seemed the easiest and the way to riches without any significant risk.

Simply buy a CE and PE of same strike before an event, whichever way rhe stock moves post event you make money

But real life is a tougher place, so this did not work in practice 🤣

Vols went up before event pricing in the risk, and since vols over estimate event impact in general, majority of the time there is a vol crush post event and straddles lose money. ( this is why sellers sell)

But the markets now is a strange place. Vols refuse to go up before an event. We have GDP data today evening and Gujarat election results within next weekly expiry. The cost is 1.3% of Nifty for the next week straddle with 8DTE .

So whoever is selling this straddle does not expect Nifty to move 1.3% from here, either up or down within next Thursday? Does not make sense.
Vols not rising before event makes it a no brainer to buy this straddle

With vols not going up before event and with such low vols, chances of further vol crush are slim. Plus, even if markets now go up further, I think traders will get a bit nervous/fearful pushing vols up.

Let's see whether my thesis works out 🙏

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

The most common problem faced by day-traders and it's easy solution which is extremely difficult to implement.
A thread.
( uses concepts I have discussed many times before in separate threads)

Problem : I have a good system, I understand charts and/or price action, but I simply can't make money. I hold my losses too long or ( this is most common) I get out of profitable positions too fast and cannot sit for the whole move

At many firms at NASDAQ, day-traders are seen as elite sportspersons playing in a difficult taxing game. That's why, they have regular sessions with sports psychologists. They are advised to follow the basic routine of sportspersons.
Train ---- Play tournaments --- Rest

The cycle repeats

We retail day-traders here neither rest nor train.

Rest = taking time off markets
Train = trading in markets in training mode

Understanding REST is easy, simply take time off markets and spend time with family or do something you love

Two year back thread on MFI, someone liked this so came up in notifications . Rather than running around 100s of indicators, I have made this my go to indicator under any circumstances and have been using this for years

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