BC MARKET CYCLE

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Charlie Mungerilal
@CMungerilal 3 years, 9 months ago 666 views

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Some stocks are undervalued just because they underperformed in down cycle than their peers. The key thing to note is that they will outperform their peers in up cycle.

To sum up, try to find undervalued market leaders who underperformed because of down cycle of the sector.

More from Market cycle

Aditya Shah
@AdityaD_Shah

When the upcycle in a sector is very strong
Poorly managed companies also make returns

2021 steel cycle-
SAIL went up from 30 to 120

Now in the current credit upcycle:-
PSU Banks are making money!

But does this mean credit culture has changed for PSU Banks?
No evidence of that

RS
@RanaPratp

@unseenvalue @sahil_vi It is mean reversion for company's performance. Crowd thinking usually takes a belated u turn after the prices have retreated significantly.

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Dividend Growth Invest...
@DividendGrowth

@JDP223 @ekmokaya "The Snowball"

Sagarkumar Jain
@sagarjain102

Though the old investors may not understand technology, the new investors do not understand risk.
MCap
Tesla: $1.02 trillion
Berkshire: $656 billion
Tesla's worth is ~1.5x that of Berkshire, though the revenue of Tesla is less than the profit made by Berkshire

Same old lessons.

Aurum Capital
@CapitalAurum

Patience and conviction

At @CapitalAurum our endeavour is to read the cycle of various industries, locate turnarounds and put bets on undervalued stocks. We gather various data points, not necessarily always captured with conventional methods.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

1/n

This has lead us to get into the turnarounds in many companies and industries. In late 2018 and early 2019, one such visible trend was cement cycle when it was not going through the best of the time.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india
2/n

We recommended 2 stocks in a span of 3 months in Dec 2018 and Feb 2019 at around Rs 270 and Rs330 levels respectively. We started with 3% allocation in each ie 6% in cement sector.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

3/n

The drawdown happened. We saw a max draw-downs of 31% & 45% resp. during the fall of Mar 2020. This fall was much lower than the overall fall in Mid and Small cap indices in Mar 2020. In a way they outperformed the indices and helped our PF too.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india
4/n

As time progressed and we continued to get confirmations on our parameters, we increased the allocation in the sector. The current allocation is 12%. The average price of both the stocks remained closer to the initial buy price.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

5/n

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Yes.

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