BC MARKET CYCLE
Saved by @AnmolNarula11

Markets are all about patterns and tendencies that have an edge. Here are a few I have observed and learned over the years.

A Thread.

 Identify the Sector(s) of this cycle. Typically mid caps which are enjoying an earnings tailwind due to the external environment and you have a 3 year visibility into a 25% or higher eps growth. Will seem expensive throughout the cycle but will make big money.
Breakout post a genuine earnings surprise. Popularly called PEAD. Structural pattern. Works like a charm at all points of any cycle.
Serious debt reduction. Drives as much shareholder value as a high growth stock.
52 week highs across stocks in a given sector. Something is happening. Pay attention.
All time highs in ANY stock.
Spin offs and demergers. There is one whole book on this. Huge edge works more often than not.
New IPOs breaking out to all time highs a month or so after the listing.
Low capacity utilisation, negative profits and a turnaround in the sector - typically buy on first signs of turnaround.
Media pessimism about a sector reaching highs as per news reports in papers/mags while the sector in forming consolidating bottom or breaking out - huge winners here.
52 week low + insider buying + but no sector issues ie sector not likely to die or go into oblivion.
Large opportunity good execution and good management will always be overvalued, ignore pe and add them during corrections without waiting for pe to correct to "my value levels” which will never come.
3 years 50% test, Can this business trade 50% lower after 3 years? Can be done for predictable businesses only. This one by @BMTheEquityDesk
Can the profits (5 years out) in the future be equal to the current market cap? This was Ramdeo Agarwal if I remember it right.
Change in management (especially for financials but generally for others).
Playing the liquidity premium and discount in small caps in bull and bear markets. In bear markets they are oversold and and in bull over bought - hence small caps make for very good market cycle play
Fall after a sharp deterioration in margin due to temp factors, which is likely to bounce back.
This is the big one and may happen due one of the reasons above. Delta in RoCE leads to multi baggers - esp if delta is from single digits to two digits.
All engines firing. Improved margins faster cash flows and better asset turns which happen when cwip assets start sweating by @varadhar1
https://t.co/VPnK3xS2nA
https://t.co/DvOYLg95pt
https://t.co/8KVNjz9piP

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D.Muthukrishnan
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Good time to buy is when a theme or segment is ignored by the market and not when it is popular.

When you buy what is popular when it is popular, need to forego returns for few years.
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Vivek Mashrani, CFA
Vivek Mashrani, CFA
@MashraniVivek
Do you know below companies were Most Valuable top 10 companies in India between 1995 to 2010..??

Where are they now? What CAGR returns did they generate? Why?

- Century Textiles
- Brooke Bond
- Hindalco
- Tata Communications
- IDBI Bank
- Indian Hotels
- Satyam Computer

(1/2)

- NIIT
- Zee Entertainment
- Indian Oil
- Himachal Futuristic
- Reliance Infra
- RCOM
- Suzlon Energy
- DLF
- Unitech
- Reliance Power
- Sterlite
- Jindal Steel
- Cairn India
- Coal India

This is how survivorship bias can be studied..

#investing #TechnoFunda

(2/2)
MARKET CYCLE
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Vipul jain
Vipul jain
@Vipulja10222931
@varinder_bansal Realty sector main jaan aa rahi hai
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Anish Moonka
Anish Moonka
@AnishA_Moonka
On Cyclicals

All hell breaks loose once the growth slows down; as every investor rushes to exit at the same time. The decline is 5x faster than the rise.
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Jiten Parmar
Jiten Parmar
@jitenkparmar
@Sanjay__Bakshi @katalystwealth Yes Sir. Extremely difficult to predict the top. Often top comes much before the best results. One needs to have some kind of strategy to exit. Maybe something like a multiple of replacement cost, P/B, historical upcycle margins, etc. But there is no exact science to predict top.
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Ever wonder how traders get in stocks before they explode? 🧐

Or find options that move 1,000% in a single day/week?🤯

I made a thread going over exactly how I find these stocks BEFORE they take off 🚀
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So, let's start with the software I use…

Finviz!! Finviz is a free website that I use to scan for stocks.

They have a lot of other cool features as well, but I only use their scanner.
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Head on over to finviz and go to the screener

Click on the “All” tab on the top and put in the criteria in the next tweet
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This is the first scan that I use for bullish swing setups
✅Quarter +10%
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What Happened To Bhakt Prahlad after Hiranyakashipu Vadh
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Prahlada became the mighty king of the Asuras after Shri Narsimha killed Hiranyakashipu. Prahlada was even more powerful than his father, Hiranyakashipu ever was. He enjoyed the love and respect of his subjects.


By virtue of his good behaviour, Prahlada conquered the three worlds easily and Indra ran away from the Heavens. Indra then deceived Prahlada into giving him the power of his behaviour and Prahlada lost control of the three worlds.


Asuras grew angry at the Devas for taking advantage of their King's virtuous behaviour and invaded the heavens. The Devas, afraid of the Asuras, enlisted the help of human Kings such as Yayati, Raji and Kakutstha and defeated them.

Prahlada attacked the gods and defeated Indra in battle, forcing the King of the Gods to run for his life. Indra sought help of Lord Vishnu. Infused with his power, Indra defeated Prahlada. The latter understood that Vishnu was helping Indra in battle and he withdrew his forces.


Prahlada first gave his kingdom to Andhaka, but the latter was defeated by Shiva. So Prahlada gave it to his son Virochana and undertook a Tirtha Yatra.
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H was always unseen in S2NL :)

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Those who sold L @ 660 can always come back at 360. Those who sold S last week can be back @ 301
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