This will cause issues going forward as their bond will have to be a continuous guidance and inspiration from their leader who couldn't spare that energy or time due to his health
My Notes on Tamil Nadu Battle Field – Part 3
POST RAJINIKANTH POLITICS
My short thread on RK was focusing on the challenges RK will face. Key points.
1. I said that if Rajini couldn’t enter the “Rajini” style, hen he won’t enter at all. His announcement yesterday reflects it.
This will cause issues going forward as their bond will have to be a continuous guidance and inspiration from their leader who couldn't spare that energy or time due to his health
So, when RK announced his political entry, I was surprised for two reasons:
1. when he announced his entry in 2017 there was a political vacuum in Tamil Nadu.
I have covered his strengths in detail previously, which included his organisational framework and blueprint and cast-less vote bank.
It is my firm view that his vote share didn't have the critical mass to get seats let alone win him a majority because
I am quoting below things I had identified as ‘challenges to Rajini’ in an unpublished thread. These are the real reasons I speculate behind Rajini’s current decision:
2.The forces that often make him say anti-Hindu things in his movies wouldn’t have let him operate with a free will. Examples –
his reaction to BJP’s condescension,
his quick reaction to Gangai Amaran’s plea,
his U-turn on his trip to Sri Lanka,
his reluctance to openly support Modi Ji whom he thinks can bring all the changes he envisions.
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In fact, the day he announced it, I told a few people in close circle that he doesn’t carry this decision in his air – he looks diffident, if not upset.
4.Self-goals which would have given him some setbacks. By saying ‘aatchi matram’,
While he is such an untested leader and this is no MGR times, excluding potential allies was poor political acumen.
Closer to the election, there is no way he could win if he projected another face as CM candidate.
Going without one would also put his chances down in front of two clear leaders – Stalin and EPS.
Rajini probably didn’t feel the same urge as he felt before
Now, let's look at the post Rajini political scenario.
Endorsement phase. Rajini has more political power outside of the battlefield than being in as one of the politicians.
So, the first impact of this decision will be various political outfits competing with each other for an endorsement from Rajini.
Even DMK will try to strike a good note with RK.
Leaders like OPS will try to garner Rajini’s support. But in my view, the most serious and deserving party that will seek Rajini’s endorsement will be BJP.
BJP will use its heavy weights. That lunch/ dinner Modi ji was to have with Rajini has some reason/ justification now.
BUT, RK will not endorse anyone at least till the elections.
THE IMPACT OF RAJINI’S DECISION ON VARIOUS PARTIES
On DMK
DMK will be less anxious now. What it feared was transfer of DMK votes to Rajini. Everyone believed a post poll stitch up between Rajini and NDA.
However, DMK has more reasons to fear BJP than Rajini.
DMK’s eternal fear of BJP is about how BJP will continue to expose their corruption. Annamalai has done a neat mapping of their money trails and can bring every card down if need be.
DMK also stands to lose PMK due to Dayanidhi Maran. Marans seem to destroy Stalin from within. Kanimozhi is also keen to play Stalin-US down.
Mrs. Vijayakanth has categorically eliminated DMK.
As I foretold, BJP will continue to break DMK allies bit by bit and their vote base.
With 32 channels and a proven ability to lie, PKP and Stalin will try and rely on propaganda more than anything else.
If people like me could be sceptical about RK’s success, how come all politicians including PK think they need to attack RK to silence him?
Anyway, the impact on DMK is that they will not receive RK’s endorsement and not a single vote will come to DMK from Rajini Makkal Mandram. However, people will continue to leave DMK to join BJP.
AIADMK will not have much of an impact. They will stand to gain in two ways.
~ A certain drain from their side is stopped
~ Some or many of Rajini followers will now vote AIADMK
~ AIADMK now has an upper hand with BJP and other allies for seat sharing.
BJP
BJP will stand to gain especially because of Modi Ji and Annamalai. Will do a detailed tweet on this later.
More people from DMK and some other parties (MNM, NTK) will flow into BJP now
It's my firm belief that BJP will persuade Rajnikant to endorse them in some way.
Rajinikanth may oblige and do this directly closer to the election or may do it discretely through his Mandram.
He will not support any party or leader now.
BJP’s position is weakened with respect to RK’s exit, so their seats in the alliance will take a beating.
NDA
BJP’s alliance as NDA with AIADMK will need to redefine its purpose and pitch. I had said earlier that BJP will certainly go with AIADMK, and not Rajini
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Hindutva does not belong to Modi nor his party, it belongs to the people as a unifying, decolonial ideology similar to pan-Africanism or Yugoslavism.
His own brand of "positive secularism" is even milder - deepening special rights and welfare schemes for religious minorities.
After the disbanding of the Hindu Mahasabha and Jana Sangh, Hindutva as a political ideology does not even exist, except as a bogeyman in the minds of the Anglophone elite.
Even the BJP gave up Hindutva for civic nationalism, Gandhian socialism, and positive secularism in 1980s.
Under Modi, there has been compete policy continuity on minority rights and welfare from the Congress era, with little to no "Hindutva agenda" coming to see the light of day.
The most radical policy they can dream of is religion-neutral laws and equal rights for equal citizens.
Hindutva was essential in forming a national consciousness, but was abandoned with time. The modern BJP refuses to self-identify as a Hindutva movement, adopting moderates like Sardar Patel, Deendayal Upadhyay, and JP Narayan as their icons, rather than Savarkar or the Mahasabha.
When they say Hindu Rashtra, all they mean is an "Indic polity".
When British India was partitioned into a Muslim homeland and a Dharmic homeland, one state became a 'Ghazi' garrison state, and one the successor state to the Indic
His own brand of "positive secularism" is even milder - deepening special rights and welfare schemes for religious minorities.
I'm not entirely comfortable with Modi's "Hindutva".
— Onye Nkuzi (@cchukudebelu) February 2, 2021
I know many of my Indian followers will come at me, angrily - but let me just say this out.
I'm not sure it is a great model for democracy in a diverse, multi-cultural developing nation.
After the disbanding of the Hindu Mahasabha and Jana Sangh, Hindutva as a political ideology does not even exist, except as a bogeyman in the minds of the Anglophone elite.
Even the BJP gave up Hindutva for civic nationalism, Gandhian socialism, and positive secularism in 1980s.
Under Modi, there has been compete policy continuity on minority rights and welfare from the Congress era, with little to no "Hindutva agenda" coming to see the light of day.
The most radical policy they can dream of is religion-neutral laws and equal rights for equal citizens.
Hindutva was essential in forming a national consciousness, but was abandoned with time. The modern BJP refuses to self-identify as a Hindutva movement, adopting moderates like Sardar Patel, Deendayal Upadhyay, and JP Narayan as their icons, rather than Savarkar or the Mahasabha.
When they say Hindu Rashtra, all they mean is an "Indic polity".
When British India was partitioned into a Muslim homeland and a Dharmic homeland, one state became a 'Ghazi' garrison state, and one the successor state to the Indic
