BC HEALTH
Saved by @Alex1Powell

There are two issues with the English variant, as it is now referred. One issue is "what it could do" and the other issue is "what it could represent". They are both important and we know just enough to make hyphoteses that can drive to experiments. I'll try and explain 1/

 Let's start with the latter: what does it represent? Mutations happen all the time and variants have been recorded in the thousands. The website below shows several 1000s different variants recorded in different countries. Why is this SO special? 2/

https://t.co/5MLzlcnJRh
The most special aspect of this variant is that the number of changes it shows is a large disconnect from its parental line as if this lineage made a big sudden jump rather than the usual slow progress to which we are used. 3/
There are a few (certainly not many) scenarios that are compatible with this jump and one of them is the one in which the virus has tried to escape its way out from an organism that had a static and relatively weak immune response.

4/
Such an organism is an immunosuppressed patient who tries to fight the infection with injections of donated plasma from a recovered patient. Someone who cannot produce antibodies and can be helped with plasmapheresis from a donor who could. 5/
In that organism, you would witness evolutionary pressure. The virus that is sensitive to the antibodies being injected would die: a random mutant who can escape that immune response would survive just enough to try and replicate. 6/
What kind of virus could survive that scenario? Well, one that 1) can go undetected by that antibody mix; 2) can replicate fast enough to outnumber the antibody chase. or 3) a mix of 1 and 2. The B.1.1.7 shows both features, on paper, hence the hypothesis of how it was born. 7/
Now, let's go back to point number 1. What can it do? Well, now that the hypothesis of its creation is clear, it should also be clear what it could do. It could lead to reinfections and it could spread much faster than the parental line. 8/
Data on the prevalence of this new strain clearly show it has outnumbered the parental strain in the wild, alarmingly quickly. In evolutionary terms, it means it has higher fitness than its competitors (viruses compete with each other not just with us). 9/
https://t.co/eTDTCvbYOh
This has happened 1) everywhere in the country 2) in a period in which other strains were circulating and competing and 3) in a period of relative lockdown. Very different from what happened in the summer with the Spanish variant. 10/
So, the working hypothesis is that this strain is much faster than the parental line and can spread more easily. Is it more virulent too? We will know in the next weeks, but for now, the only answer possible is "we don't know". No point making public predictions. 11/
Can it lead to reinfections? In principle, it could. Remember we said it may have evolved escaping antibodies against the old virus. However, if this strain were to re-infect a normal, non-immunocompromised person, it would be met with the usual adaptive response 12/
New antibodies would form and it would be treated just like another virus (assuming virulence did not change).
13/
Can escape vaccines? Well. Vaccines were all designed to elicit the very same antibody mix this virus has learned to escape so yes, in principle it could. However, it is unlikely that they would be completely ineffective. 14/
A possible scenario is that efficacy will be lower than the 95% we have learned to celebrate. This scenario opens new outlooks on how we should select future vaccines: not simply looking at efficiency in the trial but taking into account the real world 15/
Lower efficiency, coupled with an increase in R would make the target of herd immunity very difficult to reach. 16/
So, we must continue the effort at vaccinating the world being aware that this shot will not be the end of it. We are entering a flu-like scenario, in which we will need a yearly jab. 17/
Finally, a note on what "it could happen". This episode shows this virus has a good capacity to evolve. Evolution rate, not mutation rate is what really matters at the end of the day. Stop worrying about "mutations" and start learning about evolution.
https://t.co/T7IXQn5RQy 18/
Also, we must stop giving from granted some convenient beliefs, like the one that this virus is lethal almost only for the elderlies. Yes, it is now, but that should not be a laissez-passer for everyone. 19/
IMO this should be seen as the last nail in the coffin for exoteric declarations saying we should try to reach herd-immunity. We shall not. We shall avoid giving the virus every chance to mutate into something that will hit the fan. 20/END

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Adam Wagner
Adam Wagner
@AdamWagner1
🚨New lockdown regulations just published, in force tomorrow

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (No. 3) and (All Tiers) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2021

https://t.co/L5jwlTDaIE

(Thread)


These are not a new set of regulations: they are amendments an old set of regulations

Which we thought were gone! But they are back

Welcome back No.3 regulations

A quick thing before we continue!

I have been analysing these laws for free for 9 months now - if you want to say thanks and have a few £ to spare please give to my @LawCentres fundraiser

They give free legal advice to people who need it

They also amend the All Tiers regulations

Oh god it's all amendments by paragraph references

Basically all of England now in Tier 4 and Tier 4 is amended but not by a huge amount

This really is a terrible way to make laws on the fly - who can possibly understand it?!


So, to explain, you need 2 documents open if you want to understand what is going on:

All Tiers regulations (Tiers 1-4, 2 December as amended) https://t.co/IraPQ112ak

And amendments https://t.co/L5jwlTDaIE

No sensible way of doing except by track changes, on it now, back soon
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Stephen Wolfe
Stephen Wolfe
@PerfInjust
Thread:
I'm thinking about Tim Keller's influence.

There is the curious fact that Keller is well-regarded among the culture elite (or at least has not suffered the sort of vilification one might expect given his influence). How can we explain this?

Looking at Prodigal God and other writings, you see that his approach to urban ministry is deeply political in a way that appeals to Democrat-heavy cities. It involves two moves:

1) equalizing sins: elevating the sin of hypocrisy, "moralism," and "religion" (the sins of "conservatives") and equating these with the sins tolerated among liberal (e.g., homosexuality)
&
2) emphasizing "self-righteousness" as a sort of chief sin (the sin of "red states").

Keller effectively downplays the sins that liberals tolerate while elevating the sins of their political enemies, the red state conservatives.

But the greatest appeal to liberals is that critiquing the "self-righteous" vilifies political action, particularly the action of social conservatives (e.g., anti-gay marriage). And the equalization of sins eases concerns over changes in social policy (e.g., gay marriage).
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Slay Jr
Slay Jr
@ItDiscovers
Ankle joint is undertrained in a single joint means in both the frontal plane & in dorsiflexion 2 prevent lateral ankle sprains and shin splints. Single joint exercises allows you to evaluate the joint actions ROM & strength to understand injury risk & where development is needed


AJ Abduction (Cutting)

1. I pull the foot in2 dorsiflexion 2 stabilize the joint

2. I pull against the increasing tension of the band in2 abduction w/o losing dorsiflexion & also w/o externally rotating the thigh.

3. On the negative resist the bands pull eccentrically.


AJ Adduction (Cutting)

1. I pull the foot into dorsiflexion and I pull the foot into adduction against the tension of the band w/o medial rotation of the thigh.

2. I resist the negative movement of the band pulling the ankle into abduction eccentrically.
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G Peters \u267f\ufe0f It's still a pandemic btw.
G Peters ♿️ It's still...
@mssinenomine
Let's talk honestly about "informed consent."
Someone with decades of training gives someone with none advice usually packed into 1-3 mins. Huge amount is based on trust. Huge potential for bias built in. But also there is no obligation to provide real alternative options.


I am classified as 'gifted' (obnoxious and ableist term). I mention because of what I am about to say. You all know that I was an ambulatory wheelchair user previously - could stand - but contractures have ended that. When I pleaded for physio, turned down. But did you know...

I recently was chatting with a doctor I know and explaining what happened and the day the physiatrist told me it was too late and nothing could be done. The doctor asked if I'd like one of her friends/colleagues to give second opinion. I said yes please! So...

She said can you send me MRI and other imaging they did to determine it wasn't possible to address your contractures.

Me: What?
Dr.: They did a MRI first before deciding right?
Me: No
Dr: What did they do??!
Me: Examined me for 2 minutes.
Dr: I am very angry rn. Can't talk.

My point is you don't even know if you are making "informed" decisions because the only source of information you have is the person who has already decided what they think you should do. And may I remind you of a word called 'compliance.'
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Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
"Public health" isn't just about vaccinations, clinics and urgent care: it's a holistic discipline that encompasses all the contributors to health outcomes, which include things like housing, employment, transportation, pollution and more.

1/


A new working paper from @nberpubs estimates the number of US covid deaths that could have been prevented with a coherent, effective eviction moratorium and a ban on utility cutoffs:

The paper, written by a multidisciplinary group of Duke researchers from medicine and economics, found that housing precarity (a risk of losing your home) drove risky behavior that increased the spread of the disease and the resulting deaths.

3/

For example, it forced people to double-up on lodgings, making social distancing impossible, to say nothing of self-isolating after an exposure. It also drove people to tolerate high-risk workplace conditions, including illegal conditions.

4/

The authors used regression techniques to control for confounding variables, and used like-for-like counties with different utility and eviction policies to estimate the effect that these had on infection rates.

5/
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A thread on HN about bad code in legacy projects both makes me think how little we've learned as a discipline over the years and, honestly, how little credit we give ourselves for some pretty major

Fun going down this list and thinking: "Hmm, plausible at a well-run modern software shop", "Hmm, possible, but requires implausible tradeoffs", "Literally disallowed by languages", and "If you were to attempt doing that our test suite wouldn't let you merge."

I think we as an industry celebrate (not quite the right word) failure too much and don't celebrate success nearly enough. There is no DailyWTF for competent execution, word of which generally stays pretty local to the source while incompetence passes into legend.

Alrighty let me try to thread the needle on being the change I want to see in the world while not giving away anything that will get me in trouble:

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c.f.
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The 2018 State of JavaScript survey is out. They got 20,000 responses and have some delicious, delicious data. I'mma thread in some highlights:

First up: JavaScript flavors. There's TypeScript at 47% adoption, a tad higher than npm's own survey results (which said 46%). npm's survey is coming up again soon and will ask about TypeScript in a lot more detail.


I really, *really* like SoJ's "would not use again" question, which lets people who've abandoned a tech self-identify. This is noticeable in the graph above with Flow users -- 41% of people who've used Flow say they wouldn't use it again.

Now JavaScript frameworks. It's been a full year since npm's survey, so these numbers differ from ours in the directions I expected:
React 65% (vs. 60%)
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But there's a shocker in here: Angular.


npm's survey had Angular at 40% last year and SoJ has it at either:
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DEVI KARUMARIAMMAN, THIRUVERKADU (TN)

Devi is worshipped here as both Swayambhu (self-manifested) and as Parashakti (with 4 arms holding skull,sword,trishul,udukkai/damru).

Here, Muruga got Vel from Devi to fight Suran. So the place was called Vel kadu which became Verkadu.


It is said that there was an anthill here long ago. Devi appeared in the dream of a devotee and asked him to build a shrine at that spot. When the anthill was removed, the swayambhu murti of Devi emerged. So Devi is called Karuvil Illadha Karumari ( not in the womb of mother).


Once, Devi went to Surya in the form of an old woman but Surya neglected her. Devi’s anger made Surya lose his brightness.
To appease her, Surya said that His rays would fall on Her directly twice in a year and touch her feet. Also, Sunday is celebrated as day of Devi Karumari.


There is also a wooden image of Devi (Marachilai Amman) here. Devotees offer locks to her in the belief that She would safe guard their houses.
Temple tank (Thiruchamber Poigai) is said to have been created by Subramanya. Taking dip in it is said to cure skin related disorders.
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Post Independence, Army wanted to select the most experienced Indian commander as Army chief. But Nehru without consulting anyone appointed Gen Rob Lockhart, a senior British Army officer as the Commander-in-Chief (C-in-C) of the Indian Army.


Most people were shocked to know that Nehru selected a British Man after fighting for independence for over 200 years! Major Gen A A ‘Jick’ Rudra of the Indian Army was completely upset with the decision.


One day Lockhart met Nehru with a strategic plan and proposed many government directive defence policies for the country. He placed it on the table and explained the point to PM Nehru. After a while Lockhart walked out of the room and met AA Jick Rudra,+

Lockhart looked shell shocked and stunned. When asked what happened he said “The PM took one look at my paper and blew his top. Rubbish! Total rubbish! We don’t need a defence plan. Our policy is ahimsa (non-violence). We foresee no military threats. Scrap the army!”

One year after the incident the Kashmir crisis had increased and Gen Lockhart used to exchange ideas with the Gen Douglas Gracey who was commander in chief of Pakistan Army.There were many infiltrations along the border which Lockhart knew and took no action. But Lt Gen Cariappa+
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The Straddle is my favorite trade these days. But more often than not, one needs to adjust to make a good return from it. There are many ways to do this depending on your view, psychology and imagination. Will discuss a few that I use

The Straddle is a delta neutral strategy and it is important to keep deltas in check during the course of the Trade and not let them run away from you. Of course Volatility is the elephant in the room- but not going there as that will require a separate discussion

The first and most common method is to go 'inverted.' That is to say to shift the untested side to generate additional Premium and increase the runway to Breakeven. So if you start with a Straddle at 700 and price goes to 740, you can move the PE up to say 720.

How much should you move the untested side? While again this is a matter of skill, experience and artistry, the rule of thumb is to cut deltas by half. Remember, prices will move and you have to allow sufficient room for them to fluctuate

The second method is to shift the entire Straddle in the direction of the move. So if you have a 700 Straddle and Price goes to 740, you can shift the Straddle to 720. If you time this right, it can generally be done at virtually no cost or minimal cost.
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