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@LarryRosenthal @John_Westra True, but I only get 140 characters at a time and I’m trying to cover a lot.

“The media” meaning the primary outlets of information and opinion in America: news, TV shows, movies, magazines. Nearly all follow and promote whatever the dominant cultural values are at the moment.

 @johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra It used to be that there was civility in the media. But that came from a more civil society, where traditionally correct behavior was deemed important. That’s been erased by modernism. Today political correctness has replaced civility, and the media parrots that instead.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra The moral distortion becomes evident when you read the words Trump speaks. Consider what he might be referring to without PC bias, and then watch how those media outlets speak about those same words. The presumption of guilt starts, fills and ends nearly every message.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra Charlottesville is a perfect example. “There were good people on both sides” was entirely referring to those for and against removal of statues - NOT about “good white supremacy”
or “good Antifa counter-protesters”. He clarified this exact point at the time. That’s the “truth”.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra But to this day that’s not what the “media” gave to the world to chew on, now is it? Instead there is the deliberate and persistent lie that he meant to defend white supremacy because that narrative sells better to a PC public: half of America now thinks he’s a racist for sure.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra “Racism” has always meant treating members of another race as having less value than you. It’s been redefined, of course, to now mean any support of white people for any reason. Trump supporting American values while being white and not apologizing for it means he’s racist.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra The solution to real racism is in finding the universal values we can all agree on and aspire to, rising above irrelevant differences like race or ethnicity - as the Constitution says.

The best way to exacerbate racism is to highlight those differences and relativize all values.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra Marxism seeks to amplify class struggles, creating division and thereby promoting communism as a solution. Any society that actively intensifies animosity amongst social groups rather than working to diplomatically overcome them will ultimately become exactly that: communist.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra The media spends all of its energy re-awakening social differences and preaching about it through activism. News reporters are now compelled to provide their opinion and our “oughts” to us with every story. Instead of being informed by facts we’re now being taught by indignation.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra So yes, it’s Marxist thinking, politicized by the left, gossiped by the media, that is intentionally spinning the truth about our American pursuit of liberty and justice. America raised the bar for universal good for all and will keep doing so, despite today’s misguided activism.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra Trump is our attempt at an antidote to the problem of intentional historical misdirection. I’d love a more eloquent option, but our sound bite culture has no time for all those details. Gossip spreads faster than academic explanations. Trump’s tweets got people’s attention.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra And it worked, because he was elected. Few if any of us like Trump because of his narcissism. We like that he exasperates the left, of course, because we’re sick of the posturing and feigned offense. But he says what he wants and is NEVER run by others. We want the same right.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra Those are the rights we’re being denied: the right to speak freely; to hold conservative views; to believe America is actually better than other nations because of our unique Constitution; to oppose societally harmful values and uphold traditional wisdom.
@johnkoetsier @LarryRosenthal @John_Westra I realize my phrases “the media”, “the truth” and “Marxism” appear as too broad to you. But trust me when I say that almost half of the voting public would know almost exactly what I meant with those words.

I’m not alone in this detailed perspective.

We’re together on this.

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Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
THREAD ON IRONFLY

These days the most preferred strategy for option sellers due to improved margins is IRONFLY. It's essentially a short straddle with long strangle. Long strangle acting as 'WINGS', which help in capping the unlimited risk associated with a short straddle.(1/n)

You can also view the position as a combination of Cal & Put credit spreads, if that makes it more easy for you.

There are 3 important things to understand while trading this strategy:

1) Initial size of the Wings
2) Risk Management
3) Adjustments

(2/n)

Since we are selling an ATM straddle, the 1st question is how far our wings should be? Ideally i sell .50 delta straddle & buy .20 or .10 OTM strangle, depending on my view on volatility. So the distance of wings depends on the IV setup. Higher the IVs, greater the distance.(3/n)

If you don't understand greeks, then ideally with 30 days to expiry (dte), wings should be around 300pts either side. If your trading in weekly then it should be not more than 200pts. Higher the premiums, higher the distance as we have more cushion of theta. (4/n)

It is important to understand that we need to reduce the distance of wings with time so as to manage our RISK in gap openings or sudden volatile move. So for eg. if you started with 300pt wings with 30dte, the wings wouldn't give the same protection when there is 7dte. (5/n)
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Sahil Bloom
Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom
Survivorship Bias 101

History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.

But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?

Here's Survivorship Bias 101!

👇👇👇


1/ First, a few definitions.

Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).

When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.

Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.


3/ Cicero wrote on the topic over 2,000 years ago.

An atheist named Diagoras is shown portraits of people who prayed and were saved from death at sea as proof of God's existence.

Diagoras replies, "I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?"


4/ Cicero cuts right to the point - we cannot conclude that prayer led to being saved from the sea if we ignore those who prayed and then drowned.

Survivorship bias can lead to a deeply-flawed understanding of cause-and-effect relationships.

Let's look at some examples.
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Nina Brooke
Nina Brooke
@NinaBrooke3
Ester Ranzen/ Childline/BBC/Saville/Mandelson 👀👇


1. 'MYSTERIOUS ESTHER RANTZEN' ..2017 https://t.co/aBsJL2Avqd


2. (Let's This Party Started) Keith Vaz and Ester Ranzen.


3. 'BBC'S ESTHER RANTZEN LINKED TO ELM GUEST HOUSE' https://t.co/a064KgW8LJ


4. Esther Rantzen is quizzed about Jimmy Savile - 2012
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Emily\u2661
Emily♡
@ItsEmilyKaty
To the person who thinks that they might be autistic. - a thread. /1

I imagine you have gone your entire life wondering why you are different, why you can't seem to understand things the way that others can and why everything just seems so hard. I'm proud of you for getting this far. /2

Part of you might be thinking:
"But if I was autistic, surely it would've been noticed when I was a kid? So maybe I'm making this up."
So many autistic people aren't diagnosed until they are adults, if diagnosed at all. You would not be the first and you won't be the last. /3

"My family and friends don't think that I could be autistic."
People's understandings of autism tend to be based off of the media, which doesn't show every possible presentation of autism, or based off of someone they know, and all autistic people present differently. /4

People's perceptions of autism can also be based off stereotypes, for example, "autistic people can't make eye contact, so you can't be autistic." While this is true for some, it isn't for all, so you can begin to see how one presentation of autism can't possibly fit everyone. /5
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Carlos E. Perez
Carlos E. Perez
@IntuitMachine
Nice to discover Judea Pearl ask a fundamental question. What's an 'inductive bias'?


I crucial step on the road towards AGI is a richer vocabulary for reasoning about inductive biases.

explores the apparent impedance mismatch between inductive biases and causal reasoning. But isn't the logical thinking required for good causal reasoning also not an inductive bias?

An inductive bias is what C.S. Peirce would call a habit. It is a habit of reasoning. Logical thinking is like a Platonic solid of the many kinds of heuristics that are discovered.

The kind of black and white logic that is found in digital computers is critical to the emergence of today's information economy. This of course is not the same logic that drives the general intelligence that lives in the same economy.
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Nyck de Vries
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@nyckdevries
Lately there have been various rumours in the media about myself and Jumbo in relation to Williams. To clarify things, Jumbo is not and will not invest any money in my career. 1/2

Of course we’re collectively looking at career opportunities, however this is certainly not our philosophy and strategy. I hope to announce my future plans soon, be patient 😉 2/2
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foone
foone
@Foone
You want to know something about how bullshit insane our brains are?
OK, so there's a physical problem with our eyes: We move them in short fast bursts called "saccades", right? very quick, synchronized movements.
The only problem is: they go all blurry and useless during this

having your vision turn into a blurry mess every time you move your eyes is obviously not a good idea, so our brains hide it from us. Now, imagine you're an engineer and you have this problem.

You've got some obvious solutions you could do.
1. make the vision go black during movement. (Some VR games do this!)
2. just keep showing the last thing we saw prior to movement

both are good options with different downsides, but OH NO. this is assuming everything makes sense and is chronological and (regular) logical.
Your brain does neither of these options, really.

first, it basically puts your visual system on "pause". You're not seeing blackness or even nothing, you're just not seeing period.
then when you finish your saccade, it shows you what you now see at the new position. and then it pretends it can time travel.
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STEALTH JEFF
STEALTH JEFF
@drawandstrike
Ok I was wrong about theHouse. 2 years of legislative gridlock = not fun. Few bills passing.

Control of the House is useless when it comes to keeping Trump from declassifying all the SpyGate docs. Or stopping an Inspector General from releasing a report.

Trump still gets control of judicial appointments so we can expect another 100 judges over the next two years. This time there’ll be no McCain or Flake playing the Maverick role with their swing vote.

That new margin in the Senate is huge if another Supreme Court seat comes open.

So from the responses I’m getting, people seem to think if Trump declassifies the Spygate stuff now, nothing happens.

Are you under the impression federal prosecutors have to wait until CONGRESS finishes an investigation and makes criminal referrals before the DOJ can act?

There’s a federal grand jury on McCabe right now. Did Congress ever finish it’s investigation and make a referral to the DOJ against him?

No.

BUT INSPECTOR GENERAL HOROWITZ DID. On finishing his McCabe leak report.

Funny how nobody remembers that.
POLITICS
f1talks.pl
f1talks.pl
@f1talks
Oleg Karpov pisze, że gdyby Siergiej Sirotkin zdobył w pierwszej części sezonu więcej punktów od Strolla, to jego kontrakt z automatu zostałby przedłużony na kolejny sezon. Tak się nie stało i Williams ma możliwość szukania innych opcji i to właśnie robi. #F1pl

Czego w artykule brakuje, to informacji, że SMP prawdopodobnie przekazało Williamsowi część środków na sfinansowanie sezonu 2019. W przypadku zakończenia współpracy ekipa z Grove będzie musiała zwrócić te środki. #F1pl

To tłumaczy wysokie kwoty jakich Williams ma oczekiwać za fotel od nowego kierowcy. Jest pewnie próg opłacalności i dopóki nie zostanie osiągnięty, to zmiana z finansowego punktu widzenia nie będzie się zwyczajnie opłacała. #F1pl

Tyle można znaleźć w oświadczeniach prasowych... 😂😂😂
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
DODDA GANAPATHI, BENGALURU
#karnatakatemples

Dodda in Kannada means big. Sri Ganesha here is 18 ft tall in height and 16 ft wide. Dodda Ganesha is also known as Shakthi Ganapathi and Satya Ganapathi.

It is said that Kempe Gowda, the founder of Bengaluru, saw a rock here.


The rock had engravings of Ganesha. His sculptors cut the Ganesha murti from that single rock. Later, a shrine was built around the Ganesh murti.

It is believed that Dodda Ganapathi is the protector of Bengaluru. All auspicious events start by praying to Him.


Benne Alankara is the most famous festival here when about 100 kg of butter is coated over Ganapathi every four years and the rich prasad is offered to the worshippers.

Ganesha is also covered in cream colour and is decorated with golden laces and buttons
@GampaSD


The Dodda Ganapathi murti is believed to be still growing in size, especially towards right.

The weavers from old Bengaluru tie a coconut to their looms before starting work. When the work is completed, they break 100 coconuts here along with the one tied on the loom.
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