It’s always fun to guess what would happen next year, no matter how wrong we would be.

Below is my 2021 crystal ball – out there to be smashed :)

A thread to come.

1/ Theme 1: Bitcoin is still the King
2/ Breaking Theme 1 down into 5 things:

a) Bitcoin price hitting $100k
b) More momentum in developer sponsorship
c) Lightening getting beyond early adoption
d) Payment in bitcoin gaining more traction (Africa and LatAm)
e) More smart contracts built on top of bitcoin network
3/ Surprise Factor for Theme 1:

Will some small countries PUBLICLY load up bitcoin as part of their forex reserve?
4/ Theme 2:

Heightened focus on privacy continues to fuel DeFi growth
5/ Breaking down:

a) Reg tightening continues in western world
b) DeFi vs CBDCs (key word: censorship & nationalism)
c) Self-hosted wallet ecosystem starts to flourish
d) >5 out of top 10 tokens are DeFi tokens
e) Ethereum still dominates; 2-3 competing chains closing the gap
6/ Surprise Factor for Theme 2?

CBDCs never take off
7/ Theme 3:

More crypto M&As than IPOs in 2021, but native crypto projects are still more exciting
8/ Breaking this down:

a) With bitcoin more mainstream, comes the first crypto M&A wave
b) Finger-crossed for at least one crypto IPO that could further drive awareness
c) The heart (and future) of crypto community is still with decentralized crypto projects with native token
d
9/

d) Investments more than double in crypto projects, driven by bitcoin bull + DeFi run + remote lifestyle post COVID
e) Shall we expect a NFT season in 2021? – Entertainment and social may start to see more scalable crypto use cases
10/ Surprise Factor for this theme

We know what Facebook is trying to do.

Would Twitter incubate a crypto project to DISRUPT ITSELF?
/End

What do you see in 2021?🙃

More from For later read

Today's Twitter threads (a Twitter thread).

Inside: Planet Money on HP's myriad ripoffs; Strength in numbers; and more!

Archived at: https://t.co/esjoT3u5Gr

#Pluralistic

1/


On Feb 22, I'm delivering a keynote address for the NISO Plus conference, "The day of the comet: what trustbusting means for digital manipulation."

https://t.co/Z84xicXhGg

2/


Planet Money on HP's myriad ripoffs: Ink-stained wretches of the world, unite!

https://t.co/k5ASdVUrC2

3/


Strength in numbers: The crisis in accounting.

https://t.co/DjfAfHWpNN

4/


#15yrsago Bad Samaritan family won’t return found expensive camera https://t.co/Rn9E5R1gtV

#10yrsago What does Libyan revolution mean for https://t.co/Jz28qHVhrV? https://t.co/dN1e4MxU4r

5/
Nice to discover Judea Pearl ask a fundamental question. What's an 'inductive bias'?


I crucial step on the road towards AGI is a richer vocabulary for reasoning about inductive biases.

explores the apparent impedance mismatch between inductive biases and causal reasoning. But isn't the logical thinking required for good causal reasoning also not an inductive bias?

An inductive bias is what C.S. Peirce would call a habit. It is a habit of reasoning. Logical thinking is like a Platonic solid of the many kinds of heuristics that are discovered.

The kind of black and white logic that is found in digital computers is critical to the emergence of today's information economy. This of course is not the same logic that drives the general intelligence that lives in the same economy.

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परन्तु पीपल के कोटर में रखा बालक भूख प्यास से तड़पने लगा। जब कुछ नहीं मिला तो वो कोटर में पड़े पीपल के गोदों (फल) को खाकर बड़ा होने लगा। कालान्तर में पीपल के फलों और पत्तों को खाकर बालक का जीवन किसी प्रकार सुरक्षित रहा।

एक दिन देवर्षि नारद वहां से गुजर रहे थे ।नारद ने पीपल के कोटर में बालक को देख कर उसका परिचय मांगा -
नारद बोले - बालक तुम कौन हो?
बालक - यही तो मैं भी जानना चहता हूँ ।
नारद - तुम्हारे जनक कौन हैं?
बालक - यही तो मैं भी जानना चाहता हूँ ।

तब नारद ने आँखें बन्द कर ध्यान लगाया ।


तत्पश्चात आश्चर्यचकित हो कर बालक को बताया कि 'हे बालक! तुम महान दानी महर्षि दधीचि के पुत्र हो । तुम्हारे पिता की अस्थियों का वज्रास्त्र बनाकर ही देवताओं ने असुरों पर विजय पायी थी।तुम्हारे पिता की मृत्यु मात्र 31 वर्ष की वय में ही हो गयी थी'।

बालक - मेरे पिता की अकाल मृत्यु का क्या कारण था?
नारद - तुम्हारे पिता पर शनिदेव की महादशा थी।
बालक - मेरे उपर आयी विपत्ति का कारण क्या था?
नारद - शनिदेव की महादशा।
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Although these beings had to be respected, not all of them were powerful enough to be considered gods. Offerings would be made to the spirits that had greater influence on human life. Spells and incantations would invoke their


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Contact with ancient India brought the influence of Hinduism and Buddhism to SEA. What we now call Hinduism similarly developed in India out of native animism and the more formal Vedic tradition. This can be seen in the multitude of sacred animals and location-specific Hindu gods