It’s always fun to guess what would happen next year, no matter how wrong we would be.
Below is my 2021 crystal ball – out there to be smashed :)
A thread to come.
a) Bitcoin price hitting $100k
b) More momentum in developer sponsorship
c) Lightening getting beyond early adoption
d) Payment in bitcoin gaining more traction (Africa and LatAm)
e) More smart contracts built on top of bitcoin network
Will some small countries PUBLICLY load up bitcoin as part of their forex reserve?
a) Reg tightening continues in western world
b) DeFi vs CBDCs (key word: censorship & nationalism)
c) Self-hosted wallet ecosystem starts to flourish
d) >5 out of top 10 tokens are DeFi tokens
e) Ethereum still dominates; 2-3 competing chains closing the gap
a) With bitcoin more mainstream, comes the first crypto M&A wave
b) Finger-crossed for at least one crypto IPO that could further drive awareness
c) The heart (and future) of crypto community is still with decentralized crypto projects with native token
d
d) Investments more than double in crypto projects, driven by bitcoin bull + DeFi run + remote lifestyle post COVID
e) Shall we expect a NFT season in 2021? – Entertainment and social may start to see more scalable crypto use cases
More from For later read
This response to my tweet is a common objection to targeted advertising.
@KevinCoates correct me if I'm wrong, but basic point seems to be that banning targeted ads will lower platform profits, but will mostly be beneficial for consumers.
Some counterpoints 👇
1) This assumes that consumers prefer contextual ads to targeted ones.
This does not seem self-evident to me
Research also finds that firms choose between ad. targeting vs. obtrusiveness 👇
If true, the right question is not whether consumers prefer contextual ads to targeted ones. But whether they prefer *more* contextual ads vs *fewer* targeted
2) True, many inframarginal platforms might simply shift to contextual ads.
But some might already be almost indifferent between direct & indirect monetization.
Hard to imagine that *none* of them will respond to reduced ad revenue with actual fees.
3) Policy debate seems to be moving from:
"Consumers are insufficiently informed to decide how they share their data."
To
"No one in their right mind would agree to highly targeted ads (e.g., those that mix data from multiple sources)."
IMO the latter statement is incorrect.
@KevinCoates correct me if I'm wrong, but basic point seems to be that banning targeted ads will lower platform profits, but will mostly be beneficial for consumers.
Some counterpoints 👇
That targeted ads allow for "free" products for consumers is a common talking point and we're going to see more of it in the coming months.: https://t.co/Xty3My3f0u (1/14)
— Kevin Coates (@KevinCoates) February 16, 2021
1) This assumes that consumers prefer contextual ads to targeted ones.
This does not seem self-evident to me
Great post by @Sherman1890 got me thinking about the future of targeted ads.
— Dirk Auer (@AuerDirk) February 12, 2021
More and more tools (privacy labels, ad blockers, GDPR) enable consumers to opt-out from targeted ads - can limit the data platforms receive or block ads altogether.
The end of targeted ads? \U0001f9f5\U0001f447 https://t.co/MA6A3BrUWq
Research also finds that firms choose between ad. targeting vs. obtrusiveness 👇
If true, the right question is not whether consumers prefer contextual ads to targeted ones. But whether they prefer *more* contextual ads vs *fewer* targeted
2) True, many inframarginal platforms might simply shift to contextual ads.
But some might already be almost indifferent between direct & indirect monetization.
Hard to imagine that *none* of them will respond to reduced ad revenue with actual fees.
3) Policy debate seems to be moving from:
"Consumers are insufficiently informed to decide how they share their data."
To
"No one in their right mind would agree to highly targeted ads (e.g., those that mix data from multiple sources)."
IMO the latter statement is incorrect.