Peter showed a simple 2x2 framework to make his case.
Are we optimistic/pessimistic about the future?
Is the future determinate or indeterminate?
1/ Thread: You are not a lottery ticket
Peter Thiel is a contrarian. In 2013, he spoke in SXSW pushing against the conventional wisdom of luck’s outsized role.
Peter showed a simple 2x2 framework to make his case.
Are we optimistic/pessimistic about the future?
Is the future determinate or indeterminate?
If the future is determinate, you should have strong conviction. If it is not, you should heavily diversify.
Japan and Europe probably need no explanation at this point.
I would push back a little on that.
But because of the sheer size of the population, it is not impossible that the # of millionaires in China (4.4M) may exceed the # in the US (11M).
Thiel extends his framework to an interesting angle.
He introduced two new variables (investment and savings) into the framework and asked almost a rhetorical question on whether a low savings AND low investment can sustain optimism in the future.
You need “definite optimism” to undertake projects such as transcontinental railroad.
In such scenario, people would rather invest in index than pick stocks since picking stocks requires some sort of definite version of the future.
Since people are out of ideas, Thiel thinks they put up with negative real yields in 10-year UST.
Even beyond the world of investing, Thiel fit philosophers in this framework to distinguish these worldviews.
Because of their definite vision, none of them wanted to sell their companies.
His “grudge” is not that big tech has done damage to the society, rather they should have done much more with the resources they have.
All my twitter threads: https://t.co/1s3G9QCMGh
More from For later read
A name has caught the radar of agencies investigating #GretaToolkit- FRIEDRICH PIETER. Delhi Police expressed shock over the appearance of Pieter's name as "Who to Follow" in g-doc as he is under cops' scanner since 2006 for his Anti-India activities. Some shocking details..
1/9
Pieter is close associate (read hired by) Bhajan Singh Bhindar, founder of OFMI (Org for Minorities of India) that considers itself an anti-Gandhi 'crusader' & is Pro-Khalistan. They also campaigned to free Bhullar (convicted Khalistani terr0r!st) & lobby against Modi in US.
2/9
Bhinder has alleged connection with ISI & had records of owning inter-state drugs cartel & DVD piracy for terr0r funding. They also took control Fremont Gurudwara, US back in 2003 for millions of donation. Details of this 'Info-War' by @DisinfoLab
https://t.co/oIDFSoaDX2
3/9
Back to Pieter. Take a glance at his work. His TL is filled with anti-BJP/RSS/Modi propaganda. From his speeches to articles, everything have few keywords in common- RSS/Fascism/gen0c!de/k!ll!ing/Kashmir/Hindutva, as if running a non-stop unrest in India is his bread & butter
4/9
He picks every topic with an extreme narrative that potentially hurts integrity of nation, be it Kashmir,CAA,1984 & with his recent projects- Farmer protest & campaigning heavily against Sri Kulkarni. Despite all, Kulkarni appointed as Chief of Ext Affairs at Biden admin.
5/9
1/9
Pieter is close associate (read hired by) Bhajan Singh Bhindar, founder of OFMI (Org for Minorities of India) that considers itself an anti-Gandhi 'crusader' & is Pro-Khalistan. They also campaigned to free Bhullar (convicted Khalistani terr0r!st) & lobby against Modi in US.
2/9
Bhinder has alleged connection with ISI & had records of owning inter-state drugs cartel & DVD piracy for terr0r funding. They also took control Fremont Gurudwara, US back in 2003 for millions of donation. Details of this 'Info-War' by @DisinfoLab
https://t.co/oIDFSoaDX2
3/9
Back to Pieter. Take a glance at his work. His TL is filled with anti-BJP/RSS/Modi propaganda. From his speeches to articles, everything have few keywords in common- RSS/Fascism/gen0c!de/k!ll!ing/Kashmir/Hindutva, as if running a non-stop unrest in India is his bread & butter
4/9
He picks every topic with an extreme narrative that potentially hurts integrity of nation, be it Kashmir,CAA,1984 & with his recent projects- Farmer protest & campaigning heavily against Sri Kulkarni. Despite all, Kulkarni appointed as Chief of Ext Affairs at Biden admin.
5/9
There is some valuable analysis in this report, but on the defense front this report is deeply flawed. There are other sections of value in report but, candidly, I don't think it helps us think through critical question of Taiwan defense issues in clear & well-grounded way. 1/
Normally as it might seem churlish to be so critical, but @cfr is so high-profile & the co-authors so distinguished I think it’s key to be clear. If not, people - including in Beijing - could get the wrong idea & this report could do real harm if influential on defense issues. 2/
BLUF: The defense discussion in this report does not engage at the depth needed to add to this critical debate. Accordingly conclusions in report are ill-founded - & in key parts harmful/misleading, esp that US shldnt be prepared defend Taiwan directly (alongside own efforts). 3/
The root of the problem is that report doesn't engage w the real debate on TWN defense issues or, frankly, the facts as knowable in public. Perhaps the most direct proof of this: The citations. There is nothing in the citations to @DeptofDefense China Military Power Report...4/
Nor to vast majority of leading informed sources on this like Ochmanek, the @RANDCorporation Scorecard, @CNAS, etc. This is esp salient b/c co-authors by their own admission have v little insight into contemporary military issues. & both last served in govt in Bush 43. 5/
This is an excellent report, and I'm glad to have joined the study group. The central focus on avoiding war is understandable--a US-China war would be catastrophic and should be avoided. But protecting Taiwan's security and prosperity requires doing more. 1/x https://t.co/P0Sg4LJcpV
— Bonnie Glaser / \u845b\u4f86\u5100 (@BonnieGlaser) February 12, 2021
Normally as it might seem churlish to be so critical, but @cfr is so high-profile & the co-authors so distinguished I think it’s key to be clear. If not, people - including in Beijing - could get the wrong idea & this report could do real harm if influential on defense issues. 2/
BLUF: The defense discussion in this report does not engage at the depth needed to add to this critical debate. Accordingly conclusions in report are ill-founded - & in key parts harmful/misleading, esp that US shldnt be prepared defend Taiwan directly (alongside own efforts). 3/
The root of the problem is that report doesn't engage w the real debate on TWN defense issues or, frankly, the facts as knowable in public. Perhaps the most direct proof of this: The citations. There is nothing in the citations to @DeptofDefense China Military Power Report...4/
Nor to vast majority of leading informed sources on this like Ochmanek, the @RANDCorporation Scorecard, @CNAS, etc. This is esp salient b/c co-authors by their own admission have v little insight into contemporary military issues. & both last served in govt in Bush 43. 5/
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I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.
I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.
In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.
So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.
Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.
Ironies of Luck https://t.co/5BPWGbAxFi
— Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) March 14, 2018
"Luck is the flip side of risk. They are mirrored cousins, driven by the same thing: You are one person in a 7 billion player game, and the accidental impact of other people\u2019s actions can be more consequential than your own."
I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.
In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.
So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.
Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.
