Excited we finally have a draft of this paper, which attempts to provide a 'unifying theory' of the long economic divergence between the Middle East & Western Europe

As we see it, there are 3 recent theories that hit on important aspects of the divergence...

1/

One set of theories focus on the legitimating power of Islam (Rubin, @prof_ahmetkuru, Platteau). This gave religious clerics greater power, which pulled political resources away form those encouraging economic development

But these theories leave some questions unanswered...
2/
Religious legitimacy is only effective if people
care what religious authorities dictate. Given the economic consequences, why do people remain religious, and thereby render religious legitimacy effective? Is religiosity a cause or a consequence of institutional arrangements?

3/
Another set of theories focus on the religious proscriptions of Islam, particular those associated with Islamic law (@timurkuran). These laws were appropriate for the setting they formed but had unforeseeable consequences and failed to change as economic circumstances changed

4/
There are unaddressed questions here, too

Muslim rulers must have understood that Islamic law carried proscriptions that hampered economic development. Why, then, did they continue to use Islamic institutions (like courts) that promoted inefficiencies?

5/
A third set of theories focuses on constraint on executive power. Blaydes & Chaney argue that slave soldiers gave Muslim rulers enough power that they had less incentive to delegate power to local elites, who could more effectively provide revenue but wanted rights in return

6/
A question arises here, too

if Muslim rulers were sufficiently powerful, why
should they have been afraid to delegate authority to (non-religious) elites? A ruler with a monopoly on violence should not fear such elites and could increase tax revenue by delegating power

7/
Our model attempts to unify these theories, in the process resolving these issues and addressing others in the process

Our model focuses on the *joint* dynamics of culture and institutions

8/
Culture (religious or not) is transmitted intergenerationally, and investment in religious infrastructure is chosen by rulers

The strength of religious legitimacy is a function of both the 'legitimating technology' of the clerics and the fraction of society that is religious

9/
In this straight-forward setup, it becomes clear that two equilibria emerge in which culture and institutions *reinforce each other*

10/
In the 'religious equilibrium', rulers provide clerics w religious infrastructure (enjoyed by all who are religious), clerics legitimate, & the religious expend resources to transmit religious values to children

This is more likely to emerge when legitimating tech is strong

11/
This helps resolve one puzzle. In the equilibrium where clerics play a key role in politics, it is in parents interest to transmit religious values, which makes religious legitimacy all the more potent, and so on

This is true *in spite of* the negative economic consequences

12/
This also helps address why rulers continued to use Islamic institutions (like courts) that promoted inefficiencies

Since this equilibrium was self-reinforcing, laws and institutions that were at one time beneficial persisted even after they hampered economic activity

13/
We then consider when a ruler will yield political power (and a share of tax revenue) to other elites in return for greater overall tax revenue

14/
It follows from the base model that a ruler will only want to decentralize political power when they have little religious legitimacy

In this case, decentralization reinforces a 'secular' equilibrium in which clerics have little power and people are not very religious

15/
This helps explain why Muslim rulers, even with their slave soldiers, did not simply decentralize some power in return for tax revenue. Doing so would have undermined the equilibrium where (highly effective) religious legitimacy was important

16/
In short, we bring in insights from three major recent sets of theories of 'the long divergence' and show how they interact with each other

This is by no means meant to supersede any of the theories; indeed, it builds on them!

17/17

More from For later read

Part of what is going on here is that large sectors of evangelicalism are poorly equipped to help people deal with basic struggles, let alone the ubiquitous pornography addictions that most of their men have been enslaved to for years.


On the one hand, there's a high standard of holiness. On the other hand, there's a model of growth that is basically "Try Harder to Mean it More." Identify the relevant scriptural truth & believe it with all of your sincerity so that you may access the Holy Spirit's help to obey.

Helping sincere believers believe and obey the Bible facts is pretty much all the Holy Spirit does these days, other than convict us of our sins in light of the Bible facts.

If you know you are sincere and hate your sin and believe the right Bible facts as hard as you can but continue to be enslaved to your pornography addiction, what else left for you to do? Just Really, Just Really, Just Really Trust God and Give it to Him?

To suggest that there are other strategies available sounds to those formed in this model of growth like one is also suggesting that the Bible is insufficient, but it also suggests something just as threatening- that there are aspects of reality that are not immediately apparent.

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My top 10 tweets of the year

A thread 👇

https://t.co/xj4js6shhy


https://t.co/b81zoW6u1d


https://t.co/1147it02zs


https://t.co/A7XCU5fC2m
@franciscodeasis https://t.co/OuQaBRFPu7
Unfortunately the "This work includes the identification of viral sequences in bat samples, and has resulted in the isolation of three bat SARS-related coronaviruses that are now used as reagents to test therapeutics and vaccines." were BEFORE the


chimeric infectious clone grants were there.https://t.co/DAArwFkz6v is in 2017, Rs4231.
https://t.co/UgXygDjYbW is in 2016, RsSHC014 and RsWIV16.
https://t.co/krO69CsJ94 is in 2013, RsWIV1. notice that this is before the beginning of the project

starting in 2016. Also remember that they told about only 3 isolates/live viruses. RsSHC014 is a live infectious clone that is just as alive as those other "Isolates".

P.D. somehow is able to use funds that he have yet recieved yet, and send results and sequences from late 2019 back in time into 2015,2013 and 2016!

https://t.co/4wC7k1Lh54 Ref 3: Why ALL your pangolin samples were PCR negative? to avoid deep sequencing and accidentally reveal Paguma Larvata and Oryctolagus Cuniculus?