Morning. The #TexasFreeze continues & grid operator ERCOT is still reporting >31,000 MW of thermal generation capacity out as of 9AM CT. Down slightly from a peak of 34,000 MW reported yesterday afternoon (https://t.co/jNMR4ibyY0) but still >40% of thermal capacity in state!

Wind power is currently producing about 4,000 MW, or 2/3 of the ~6,000 MW that ERCOT was counting on wind to contribute during winter peaking events. Solar is coming online now and helping during daytime, exceeding the <300 MW it is counted on for in system planning.
Main story continues to be the failure of thermal power plants -- natural gas, coal, and nuclear plants -- which ERCOT counts on to be there when needed. They've failed. Of about 70,000 MW of thermal plants in ERCOT, ~25-30,000 MW have been out since Sunday night. Huge problem.
ERCOT started directing electric utilities (like Oncor or Austin Electic) to start rolling blackouts or involuntary emergency load shedding at 1:25am on Monday morning, with 10,500 MW shed during that late morning. That's ~2 million homes worth of load https://t.co/6LJN7Wy75y
Throughout Monday, many thermal power plants remained offline, as freeze-offs + fuel shortages in gas pipelines forced large numbers of natural gas plants offline. Many coal plants likely struggled as well w/frozen coal piles, but breakdown of thermal outages by fuel type unclear
1 nuclear reactor at South Texas Station (STS-1) also failed yesterday, NRC data confirms. That's 1,280 MW of lost capacity also (https://t.co/AToHMBG1CR)
https://t.co/zh7kNDP2Um
In short, ALL generation types are getting hammered.
This is an equal opportunity "clusterfuzzle" as @gmbutts put it. So put aside your technology favoratism and tech tribalism for today please!
In sheer numbers, natural gas-fired units are largest thermal capacity in Texas, accounting for ~56,000 MW or 66% of total capacity ERCOT was planning to have available during winter peaking events. The large majority of outages during this event are also at gas-fired plants.
This #TexasFreeze event is FAR outside what ERCOT planned for. Their 2020/2021 Winter Resource Adequacy Assessment estimated a worst case scenario "Extreme Pead Load/Extremee Generation Outages" scenario that included 13,953 MW of total thermal outages ⤵️

https://t.co/U1xlYoybWl
So in sum, total thermal generation outages of 25,000-30,000+ MW during the past 36 hours are more than DOUBLE what ERCOT considered an "Extreme Generation Outages During Extreme Peak Load" event! That is where the disaster is stemming from. (Wind underperformance is secondary).
Additionall, ERCOT predicted a seasonal peak demand of 57,699 MW with a "Extreme Peak Load" scenario adding 9,509 MW to that, for a total "extreme" scenario of 67,208 MW.

Reality: On Sunday night, ERCOT recorded a new peak winter 69,150 Megawatts between 6 and 7 p.m on 2/14!
So what is leading to widespread and long-lasting electricity outages in Texas?

1. Total electricity demand was ~3,000 MW over the "Extreme Peak Load" scenario ERCOT planned for.
2. Thermal power plant outages were 10,000-16,000 MW over the "Extreme Generator Outages" scenario.
Those two factors together account for the entirety of the 10,500-16,500 MW of emergency load shedding -- aka rolling (or not so rolling) blackouts that ERCOT has reported over the past 36 hours (see https://t.co/jNMR4ibyY0 and https://t.co/6LJN7Wy75y)
Those of you who have heard that frozen wind turbines are to blame for this, think again. The extreme demand and thermal power plant outages are the principle cause.

Wind & solar have variously over & under-performed the ~6,200 MW ERCOT was planning for from these resources.
At times, wind + solar output was ~4,000-5,000 MW below what ERCOT was counting on them form, and that certainly is part of the story, but much smaller than the total thermal capacity outages, and also less prolonged. Much of the past 36 hours, wind+solar has exceeded 6,200 MW.
Finally, note that in addition to widespread blackouts from major generation failures, there are also localized power outages from transmission & distribution failures affecting numerous customers. Downed lines, overloaded transformers, etc. Networks also fail in extreme weather.
That's a basic summary of what's going on right now. Conditions are still bad in Texas. Last night was frigid and I've seen many reports of interior temps reaching the 40s in people's homes. That's terrible and can be deadly. We don't know the full toll of this emergency yet.

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Wow, Morgan McSweeney again, Rachel Riley, SFFN, Center for Countering Digital Hate, Imran Ahmed, JLM, BoD, Angela Eagle, Tracy-Ann Oberman, Lisa Nandy, Steve Reed, Jon Cruddas, Trevor Chinn, Martin Taylor, Lord Ian Austin and Mark Lewis. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut 24 tweet🧵

Morgan McSweeney, Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, launched the organisation that now runs SFFN.
The CEO Imran Ahmed worked closely with a number of Labour figures involved in the campaign to remove Jeremy as leader.

Rachel Riley is listed as patron.
https://t.co/nGY5QrwBD0


SFFN claims that it has been “a project of the Center For Countering Digital Hate” since 4 May 2020. The relationship between the two organisations, however, appears to date back far longer. And crucially, CCDH is linked to a number of figures on the Labour right. #LabourLeaks

Center for Countering Digital Hate registered at Companies House on 19 Oct 2018, the organisation’s only director was Morgan McSweeney – Labour leader Keir Starmer’s chief of staff. McSweeney was also the campaign manager for Liz Kendall’s leadership bid. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut

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1. The death of Silicon Valley, a thread

How did Silicon Valley die? It was killed by the internet. I will explain.

Yesterday, my friend IRL asked me "Where are good old days when techies were


2. In the "good old days" Silicon Valley was about understanding technology. Silicon, to be precise. These were people who had to understand quantum mechanics, who had to build the near-miraculous devices that we now take for granted, and they had to work

3. Now, I love libertarians, and I share much of their political philosophy. But you have to be socially naive to believe that it has a chance in a real society. In those days, Silicon Valley was not a real society. It was populated by people who understood quantum mechanics

4. Then came the microcomputer revolution. It was created by people who understood how to build computers. One borderline case was Steve Jobs. People claimed that Jobs was surrounded by a "reality distortion field" - that's how good he was at understanding people, not things

5. Still, the heroes of Silicon Valley were the engineers. The people who knew how to build things. Steve Jobs, for all his understanding of people, also had quite a good understanding of technology. He had a libertarian vibe, and so did Silicon Valley
The #worldwildlifeday2021 theme is Forests and Livelihoods: Sustaining People and Planet aligning with UN Sustainable Development Goals 1, 12, 13 and 15. So, what are the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) & how can children begin to learn about them & get involved ?

https://t.co/8ICvHxE9QL is easy & fun to follow for our smallest of people #EYFS. Early childhood is the perfect stage to introduce the core concepts of what it means to be a global citizen. For our reception & KS1 children please take a look at this fabulous free resource

https://t.co/tZx8UIS58Q Storytelling is a powerful communications tool and helps children remember lessons and virtues that they will use in everyday life. The idea is to simplify the lessons of the (SDGs) so young children can relate to – and better understand – the SDGs.

For older children here’s a board game that aims to help teach children around the world about the Sustainable Development Goals in a simple and child-friendly way

This is a lovely free book for children to enjoy flicking through themselves https://t.co/ScMbQCfpjl Elyx, the United Nations’ digital ambassador, uses various expressions and actions to help demonstrate the meaning of each Sustainable Development Goal.

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