Oh hello.

I knew Dr Rorabeck. He was a wonderful guy. @SchulichMedDent does have much to be proud of. Like any institution, it has its warts.

@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent But to respond to your comment: I think you’re referencing the concept of balanced pathogenicity, which probably will will, over the longer term, favour less virulent strains.
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent The difficulty we have with VOC is that they appear to bind better to ace2 (as a vascular biologist I bet you’ve heard of that!) and that may underlie their increased infectivity and increased
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent propensity to cause outbreaks among kids, which has caused the UK to do a u-turn on schools.

You seem to fancy yourself a bit of a quant (math! So great!) so you can probably figure out what happens if you get an increase in R resulting in increased attack rates, while virulence
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent Remains constant. Yes! You get more people dying that way!

You got it! Gold star ⭐️!

And we have no evidence of diminished virulence for VOC as yet. What we do have is evidence for increased virulence.
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent At least for b117 (we don’t have this for other novel variants yet). Looks like it’s on the order of a 30% increase in CFR.

Weird, right? But you’re a science guy so like me, you’re all about the data!
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent Hey! London ont is my home town. Hopefully when we get through this I can buy you a coffee and you can unpack that wonderful tweet you had about how “epidemiologists should be sent to re-education camps”, or something like that?
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent I heard from folks at @SchulichMedDent after that, apologizing and saying: “oh don’t mind him! That’s just Donald!”

Anyway, I think I may have misunderstood your tweet so am excited to have you explain it to me! 🙂🙂🙂
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent @threadreaderapp unroll

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