Oh hello.

I knew Dr Rorabeck. He was a wonderful guy. @SchulichMedDent does have much to be proud of. Like any institution, it has its warts.

@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent But to respond to your comment: I think you’re referencing the concept of balanced pathogenicity, which probably will will, over the longer term, favour less virulent strains.
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent The difficulty we have with VOC is that they appear to bind better to ace2 (as a vascular biologist I bet you’ve heard of that!) and that may underlie their increased infectivity and increased
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent propensity to cause outbreaks among kids, which has caused the UK to do a u-turn on schools.

You seem to fancy yourself a bit of a quant (math! So great!) so you can probably figure out what happens if you get an increase in R resulting in increased attack rates, while virulence
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent Remains constant. Yes! You get more people dying that way!

You got it! Gold star ⭐️!

And we have no evidence of diminished virulence for VOC as yet. What we do have is evidence for increased virulence.
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent At least for b117 (we don’t have this for other novel variants yet). Looks like it’s on the order of a 30% increase in CFR.

Weird, right? But you’re a science guy so like me, you’re all about the data!
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent Hey! London ont is my home town. Hopefully when we get through this I can buy you a coffee and you can unpack that wonderful tweet you had about how “epidemiologists should be sent to re-education camps”, or something like that?
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent I heard from folks at @SchulichMedDent after that, apologizing and saying: “oh don’t mind him! That’s just Donald!”

Anyway, I think I may have misunderstood your tweet so am excited to have you explain it to me! 🙂🙂🙂
@DonaldWelsh16 @SchulichMedDent @threadreaderapp unroll

More from For later read

There is some valuable analysis in this report, but on the defense front this report is deeply flawed. There are other sections of value in report but, candidly, I don't think it helps us think through critical question of Taiwan defense issues in clear & well-grounded way. 1/


Normally as it might seem churlish to be so critical, but @cfr is so high-profile & the co-authors so distinguished I think it’s key to be clear. If not, people - including in Beijing - could get the wrong idea & this report could do real harm if influential on defense issues. 2/

BLUF: The defense discussion in this report does not engage at the depth needed to add to this critical debate. Accordingly conclusions in report are ill-founded - & in key parts harmful/misleading, esp that US shldnt be prepared defend Taiwan directly (alongside own efforts). 3/

The root of the problem is that report doesn't engage w the real debate on TWN defense issues or, frankly, the facts as knowable in public. Perhaps the most direct proof of this: The citations. There is nothing in the citations to @DeptofDefense China Military Power Report...4/

Nor to vast majority of leading informed sources on this like Ochmanek, the @RANDCorporation Scorecard, @CNAS, etc. This is esp salient b/c co-authors by their own admission have v little insight into contemporary military issues. & both last served in govt in Bush 43. 5/

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Tip from the Monkey
Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!


1. Yang


2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
More to come tomorrow!


3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
Archived: https://t.co/ncz5ruwE2W


4. YT Interview
Some bats & pangolins carry viruses related with SARS-CoV-2, found in SE Asia and in Yunnan, & the pangolins carrying SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were smuggled from SE Asia, so there is a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 were coming from