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The Review: The festive fixtures - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look at the blanks, doubles and the new fixture rescheduling in detail:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

 Before I start, I'd like to make a small request. I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, follow up here!

https://t.co/1tZ92vBXIT
Q: How do we tackle the next three GWs?

Given the unfortunate and untimely postponements of last GW, a lot of FPL managers were left deflated. For luck to have the final say was always going to be infuriating – given the amount of planning that goes into...
... each GW, particularly the amount of work being put into all kinds of strategies by FPL managers of late. Just a slight point I’d like to make here, your frustration is only natural but it’s worth noting that a lot of gains are still to be made in the season so try and keep...
... your heads up as we head into the most crucial stage of the season. Last evening, the Premier League announced that Burnley v Man United will be played in GW 18, meaning that Man United and Burnley no longer have any blank coming up. Bruno Fernandes is highly owned, so...
... his owners directly get an additional player available in GW 18. Whether that is enough for you as a FPL manager to avoid the Free Hit chip depends on your team, but in my opinion, 7-8 quality players heading into GW18 should be good enough reason to avoid the Free Hit...
...The other news that came out was that Aston Villa v Man City will now be played in GW 19, meaning that like Burnley and Man United, both these teams not only have a fixture in GW 18 but also have a double GW in GW 19. This is of particular importance to...
... Martinez, Grealish, Watkins, De Bruyne and City defence’s owners who suddenly find themselves with the ideal core of players heading into GW 18 and 19. I would not be selling any of these players at this stage. What stands out for me here is that Man City have great...
... fixtures either side of the double now, and have the standout fixtures in the GW itself too (che BHA CRY+AVL wba SHU bur). Triple Man City is an absolute must to navigate this run of fixtures in my opinion. Someone like a De Bruyne is probably the go-to captain...
... heading into the double GW 19 and potentially an outside shout for triple captaincy too. Investing in Man United players could be worthwhile too, given that they have have low ownerships (differentials alert!) and equally good fixtures either side of the...
... double too (AVL bur liv/ful SHU ars SOT). This new COVID outbreak also raises slight doubts in my mind for the GW 19 Bench Boost strategy, as during these uncertain times, you never know which games might get called off...
... The Premier League has set a dangerous precedent cancelling fixtures hours before the games, hence we may not know if any GW19 fixtures are to be cancelled prior to the deadline.
Q: Who is the best captaincy shout this week and why?

I think the Spurs v Leeds fixture is the one to target here. I see Bruno Fernandes is the most popular choice in most social media polls, but I find the Man United v Villa game extremely hard to call. I think Bruno...
... should be safe to get some returns, but I don’t think Villa will get obliterated. Man United’s attack has been in form, accumulating the most chances created and big chances created in the past six GWs but they will now come up against an extremely resilient Villa side...
... who limited Chelsea to just the one big chance in midweek and have been 3rd best for big chances conceded all season. I can see Jose being pragmatic and picking Leeds off on the counter which should suit Harry Kane and Son Heung Min, in particular. This could be a...
... very similar game to the Southampton vs Spurs game earlier in the season where Spurs get dominated but end up making merry on the counter. Despite two clean sheets in their last two games, Leeds are still ranked worst for big chances conceded and expected goals conceded...
... in the past six GWs. Spurs, meanwhile, are also the bookies favorites to score 2.5+ goals this week. Regarding Mo Salah, I think like any other week he should be a safe choice for captaincy but I don’t think his ceiling is as big this week either. Southampton are ranked...
... second best for shots conceded at home this season, so they will make it tough for Liverpool.
Q: Is Robertson a better FPL asset than Trent Alexander Arnold this season?

(read below)
Robertson v Trent (over the 20/21 season):

Mins per shot inside the box: 240 vs 1142
Mins per big chance: 720 vs 1142
Mins per chance created: 50 vs 50
Mins per big chance created: 205 vs 381
Mins per touch in the final third: 2.47 vs 2.55
Mins per penalty area touch: 30 vs 54
The numbers above are self-explanatory. Robertson is out-stating Trent in almost all the key underlying numbers. The quality of his chance creation means that he tends to do better for bonus as well. Further, it’s significant to note that Robertson...
... is almost twice as involved in the opposition penalty area as compared to Trent. I think the sample size is large enough to safely say that Robertson is a superior asset this season.
Q: Is Trent Alexander Arnold a worse FPL asset than he was last season?

(read below)
Trent 19/20 vs 20/21:

Mins per shot inside the box: 212 vs 1142
Mins per big chance: 1588 vs 1142
Mins per chance created: 36.5 vs 50
Mins per big chance created: 176 vs 381
Mins per touch in the final third: 2.52 vs 2.55
Mins per penalty area touch: 58 vs 54
The numbers above suggest that it’s important that we see Trent in a different light this term. He’s still a good asset to own in isolation on a standalone basis but when you compare his numbers to his previous ones, it’s noticeable that he hasn’t reached the same heights...
... this time – particularly when you notice the decline in the creativity department. Not only is Trent creating fewer chances this season but the quality of chances created has dropped significantly too.
Q: Who should be the budget midfielder of choice, Raphinha or Soucek?

(read below)
Raphinha vs Soucek (last 8 GWs):

Mins per shot inside the box: 38 vs 65
Mins per big chance: 686 vs 240
Mins per chance created: 40 vs 720
Mins per big chance created: 343 vs 720
Mins per penalty area touch: 17 vs 27
Leeds xG 15.1 v West Ham xG 9.2
Both Raphinha and Soucek would be my budget midfielders of choice heading into the double GW. Picking one is extremely tricky given that both are of a similar price and that both Leeds and West Ham have good fixtures in the DGW...
... Raphinha tends to do better for underlying numbers overall, but Soucek gets chances of higher quality and is being encouraged by Moyes to get more involved in the opposition’s penalty area, so I’d imagine his numbers will only improve...
... If I had to pick one, I would pick Raphinha because Leeds are a more attacking side, but it’s super close.
Q: Che Adams, sell or keep? Does he fare better with or without Danny Ings?

Adams (with Ings 20/21) vs Adams (without Ings 20/21)

Mins per shots inside the box: 55.28 vs 90
Mins per big chance: 124.4 vs 360
Mins per big chance created: 199 vs 180
Southampton (when Ings and Adams play) vs Southampton (with Adams only)

Shots inside the box per game: 7 vs 5
Big chances per game: 1.67 vs 0.75
Chances created per game: 7.83 vs 6.5

By looking at the above comparisons, it can be seen Adams and both Southampton as a whole...
... tend to do far better in terms of underlying numbers when Danny Ings is playing. Now that Danny Ings is fit and there to support him, it is worth keeping Adams heading into his double GW (LIV - lei + ARS AVL mun).
Q: Is Anwar El Ghazi the go-to Aston Villa midfielder of choice now?

Firstly, I’d like to look at how the addition of El Ghazi has affected Villa in terms of their goal threat:
Aston Villa (GW 2-12) vs Aston Villa (GW 13-16)

Shots inside the box per game: 10 vs 13.25
Big chances per game: 2.8 vs 3.25
Chances created per game: 12 vs 15.5
By looking at the stats, it can be seen that El Ghazi has given Villa a different dynamic. Villa’s attacking numbers were impressive enough as it is but have since further improved with El Ghazi’s addition to the team. Now I compare him to Jack Grealish:
Grealish (last four GWs) vs Grealish (GW 2-12) vs El Ghazi (Last four GWs)

Mins per shot inside the box: 45 vs 39 vs 28.9
Mins per big chance: 360 vs 180 vs 69.4
Mins per big chance created: 120 vs 129 vs 347
By looking at the underlying stats it can be seen that El Ghazi has been providing a better goal threat than Grealish, who has seen a slight decline in his goal threat numbers versus his season averages and seems to have taken up a more creative role which is due to him...
... dropping into midfield and acting as a playmaker. With El Ghazi on penalty and direct set piece duties and approximately being a couple of million cheaper than Grealish, he would be the Villa midfielder...
... I would pick if I were picking one right now considering they have a double GW coming up. (mun TOT EVE + mci bur sou)
Q: In this section I look at the defensive assets of Leeds:

Dallas vs Alioski (over the season):

Mins per shot inside the box: 238.5 vs 151.5
Mins per big chance: 477 vs 454.5
Mins per big chance created: 715.5 vs 303
Mins per touch in the final third: 4.44 vs 3.63
In my analysis above I have ignored Ayling as he has been playing centre back of late so carries little to negligible threat. Dallas is the more secure asset in terms of his starting place, but I’d assume that Alioski would also keep his starting position, at least...
... for the short term given his stellar performances of late. When both him and Dallas play, he is the superior asset as the numbers above highlight. I now look at Leeds’ recent defensive performances:
Leeds (GW 1-14) vs Leeds (GW 15-16)

Big chances conceded per game: 3.21 vs 1.5
Shots inside the box conceded per game: 11.5 vs 6

The stats from the last two GWs show improvement for Leeds in the defensive department compared to their season averages. Investing in a...
... Leeds defensive asset could be worthwhile since Leeds play twice during DGW 19, but be aware of the lack of fixture in the blank GW. (tot - BHA + SOU new lei).
Q: Should faith be kept in Dominic Calvert Lewin?

FPL managers are growing increasingly frustrated by the lack of big returns from the Everton talisman, who has been averaging ∼3.83 points in his previous six matches. I now look at his numbers during this spell:
Calvert Lewin (GW 10-15)
Shots inside the box: 13 (Forward Rank: 5th)
Big chances: 6 (Forward Rank: 1st)
xG: 3.22 (Forward Rank: 3rd)

Despite the loss of Richarlison and James Rodriguez to injury, it can be seen that Calvert Lewin is still posting good numbers averaging...
... a big chance per game. With Richarlison back to help him against West Ham and favorable fixtures to follow (WHU wol avl LEI NEW), it might be worthwhile keeping faith in the forward.
Q: What has been the impact of Sam Allardyce West Brom’s defence?

Here I compare West Brom’s numbers under Bilic to their numbers under Allardyce, which I have further bifurcated...
...when I compare his first game in-charge against an inform Villa with the next two fixtures against Liverpool and Leeds:

WBA (GW 1-13) vs WBA (GW 14) vs WBA (GW 15-16)

Shots conceded inside the box per game: 10.7 vs 11 vs 8
Big chances conceded per game: 2.7 vs 3 vs 2
By looking at the underlying stats, it can be seen that West Brom have improved defensively over the past two GWs despite the fact that they conceded five times to a Leeds side who were ruthlessly clinical. This might be early signs of a bigger improvement incoming...
... It’s too early to invest in their defence as yet but Sam Johnstone owners can hope for better returns should their numbers continue to improve with mixed fixtures and a double GW to follow (ARS - wol + whu MCI FUL).
Credit to my friend @SFK7 for helping me in my work!

If you are looking to follow my work, follow me at:

Twitter: https://t.co/oBvQzf7Dor

Instagram: https://t.co/1tZ92vBXIT

YouTube: https://t.co/mDw5fLXaAG

I await your feedback. Wishing you all a very happy new year!

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The Review: GW 11 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to “The Review” where I look back on the key numbers of GW 11 with a look ahead to GW 12:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

1) Which Tottenham Hotspur assets are worth holding?

Another solid performance on both ends of the pitch saw Spurs earn bragging rights over Arsenal in the north London derby. Despite having tough fixtures Heung Min Son and Harry Kane have still been among the goals for Spurs...

... therefore it may be worth to have another look at how the duo have been performing and who would seem to be the better option to invest in:

Son (GW 1-8) vs Son (GW 9-11)

Mins per shot inside the box: 49.4 vs 267
Mins per big chance: 71.3 vs 267
Mins per big chance created: 214 vs 267
Avg. FPL points per game: 9.25 vs 8.67

Kane (GW 1-8) vs Kane (GW 9-11)

Mins per shot inside the box: 28.6 vs 270
Mins per big chance: 79.3 vs 90
Mins per big chance created: 89.3 vs 270
Avg. FPL points per game: 10 vs 6
SOCCER
AbuBakar Siddiq
AbuBakar Siddiq
@BigManBakar
The Review: GW 12 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I analyze the Premier League football played at the weekend:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Q: Who is the best differential striker?

A lot of FPL managers have sent in their questions regarding a differential striker this week as they see this as a way to make up some points over the condensed fixture schedule...

...Let us take a look at which of the following options are worth investing in:

Watkins vs Ings vs Ché Adams v Wood (this season)
Mins per shot inside the box: 39.1 vs 40 vs 57.5 vs 52
Mins per big chance: 81.8 vs 108.5 vs 172.5 vs 105
Mins per big chance created: 900 vs 760 vs 172.5 vs 941
xG: 5.72 vs 4.5 vs 3.62 vs 3.63

I think Watkins is the one who stands out here and given his fixtures (BUR wba CRY che mun), even without penalty duties he can represent good value. Considering that Villa are ranked first for shots inside the box and xG over the last six GWs, he’s an excellent pick...
SOCCER
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AbuBakar Siddiq
AbuBakar Siddiq
@BigManBakar
The Review: GW 20 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look at the GW gone by and Kane replacements with an eye on the upcoming GW21:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Before I start, I'd like to introduce to you this game Fantasy5
that I play each GW. It's free to enter and all you have to do is pick 5 players to beat their Fantasy points target. It's very exciting and you have a chance to win £10k! Link

At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, follow up here!

Q: In this section, I talk about Manchester City.

I first run a comparison between Man City’s midfielders from GW 13-20:

(read below)

Gündoğan V Foden v Bernardo v Sterling

Mins per chance created: 46 v 26 v 57 v 51
Mins per shots in the box: 38 v 32 v 81 v 41
Mins per big chance: 92 v 208 v 285 v 124
Mins per expected involvement: 149 v 179 v 278 v 122
GAMING
AbuBakar Siddiq
AbuBakar Siddiq
@BigManBakar
The Review: GW 18 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look at Bench Boost, Triple Captaincy and the upcoming double GW 19 in detail:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Before I start, I'd like to introduce you to this game called Fantasy5. It’s free to enter, with a £10k weekly prize. All you have to do is to pick 5 players that you think will beat their Fantasy points target. Link

At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, follow up here!

Q: Who is the best captaincy option this week and why?

I jump straight away to what is the toughest question of the week. I first try and work out which one of the Liverpool midfielders to own:

(read below)

Salah (20/21) vs Mane (20/21)

Mins per shot inside the box: 33.73 vs 34.15
Mins per big chance: 96.4 vs 111
Mins per big chance created: 224.8 vs 333
Mins per chance created: 49.9 vs 57.9

Even though Mane’s numbers in comparison to his numbers in the yesteryears have...
SPORT
AbuBakar Siddiq
AbuBakar Siddiq
@BigManBakar
The Review: GW 23 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where me and @urboihamza look ahead to the upcoming double GWs and chip strategies in detail:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Before I start, an update on the Fantasy5: There have been no winners for two consecutive GWs now, so I feel the organizers have been more sympathetic in setting targets yet again this week. This might be your best chance to win £10k! Link below:

At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, do follow up here:

I’d like to dedicate this Review of mine to my dear friend Dylan who is an avid FPL player and a regular reader of my pieces. He is battling a brutal illness so my thoughts are with him and his family during these tough times – stay strong lil bro and good luck!

Q: What is the optimum strategy for FPL managers wildcarding sometime soon who do not have their Free Hit in hand?

I’d like to credit to @BenCrellin for his outstanding work helping to shed more clarity on the double GWs coming up. Southampton winning against Wolves...
SCIENCE

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How to Get Rich (without getting lucky):

Seek wealth, not money or status. Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep. Money is how we transfer time and wealth. Status is your place in the social hierarchy.

Understand that ethical wealth creation is possible. If you secretly despise wealth, it will elude you.

Ignore people playing status games. They gain status by attacking people playing wealth creation games.

You’re not going to get rich renting out your time. You must own equity - a piece of a business - to gain your financial freedom.
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Dave Nemetz
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@davenemetz
1/ A lot of people ask me how Bleacher Report found our first writers when we were tiny and had no funding.

So here's a thread on all the things we tried, what worked best, and lessons on growing a community from scratch:

2/ When we first started B/R, all the articles were written by my co-founders, our friends, and me.

This led to some hilariously bad takes. Like this article where I panned the SF Giants for drafting future World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner.

3/ When we were ready to start building our community, we started with word of mouth. We drafted an email pitching our concept. It went out to everyone we knew, asking them to share it with anyone who would be interested.

This got us maybe a few dozen signups.

From the email:


4/ With only a handful of members, we needed to make the community feel more active.

So we faked it til we made it.

Our team created multiple accounts and posted using different fake names. This created the sense of more activity and encouraged new members to join in.

5/ Later, I learned that the founders of Reddit did the same thing early on.

Sometimes the solution to the "chicken and the egg" problem of building community is to create the illusion of more chickens (or
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Thomas Chua
Thomas Chua
@SteadyCompound
Terry Smith is often referred to as "the English Warren Buffett".

He runs Fundsmith which has a fund size of £27.9bn.

Despite the size, Fundsmith did a CAGR of 18.4%.

In his book Investing for Growth, he explains his investing philosophy.

Here's a breakdown:


1. Fundsmith's winning formula

Find companies that focus on delivering value.

Not those who are looking to pacify Wall Street with short-term results.


2. Avoiding "cheap" companies?

Low multiples are not a reason to buy a company.

A ship will continue to sink if it has a hole in it.

"A stock may have a low valuation but an even lower intrinsic value. Buying such a stock is not a recipe for investment success."


3. Getting quality right

For long-term investors, getting the quality of the business is more important than the valuation.

“An investor could have paid 281 times earnings for L’Oréal, 156 times for Colgate, and 147 times for Brown-Forman and still beat the market.”


4. "Unprofitable" companies could be good investments

Many of the best companies don't show earnings today.

But that's because they're heavily reinvesting for the future.

It's just that the earnings hasn't show up.
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Route 2 FI \U0001f4c8
Route 2 FI 📈
@Route2FI
I reached financial independence and quit my 9-5 job this week at 33 years old to work with my own projects.

A thread with lessons about:

-freedom
-time
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One day in 2018 when I was in my 9-5 cubicle, I thought to myself while I stared out of the window:

How could I continue waking up every morning and be totally unexcited about everything I was going to do day after day?

This led me to Google:

“How to quit my job forever”.

You know the rest of the story.

Early Retirement Extreme and Mr. Money Mustache are the first pages popping up.

I read everything in a couple of days.

There was really no way back.

WTF, could I quit my job in a couple of years by investing?

I have always been pretty good at handling money, but earlier on I'd just pay down my mortgage faster.

Now I was going all-in on investing.

I started saving and earning more money by changing my 9-5 job.

Starting out I had a savings rate of 40%.

Last 5 months SR: over 90%

I got addicted to investing.

It was like a game.

My salary was increasing every month and on top of that, I started earning more online than I did in my 9-5.

I started dreaming about $100M.

But, then I reflected:

"What will I sacrifice if I continue like this for 30+ years?
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Indian Quant 🇮🇳...
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Nano Course On Python For Trading
==========================
Module 3

In this post, I will attempt to teach you how to write an algorithm in python to automatically find support and resistance. We shall use the data we downloaded in module 2.

+

To visualize price action, I have used the daily candlestick chart. To quantify the meaning of support and resistance, I have taken below definitions:
In a series of 5 continuous candles, if the first three candles make increasing high and then 2 decreasing highs, then the

+

high of the third candle is considered resistance. Similarly, if the first 3 candles make lower lows and the next 2 make high lows then the low of the third candle is support.

+


The above explanation is for the sake of quantifying support and resistance at a very basic level. These are called fractals. Now let's get started with the code.

mpl_finance is the new module here. We will use its candlestick_ohlc function.

+


Now, if you remember, you downloaded data for nifty 50 stocks in module 2. We shall use that data. Let's work on ITC data this time.
We will use data from 1 Jan 2021 to 30 June 2021.

+
FINANCE , PYTHON , ALL

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Situated on the banks of the river Kaveri, Magudeswarar Temple is one among Paadal Petra Shiva Sthalam. Kshetram is famous Parihara Sthala for Naga Dosham and for performing Tarpanam to the departed souls.


There are 3 sannidhi here for Paramashiva, Mahavishnu and Brahma Deva.

Sthala Puranam says that once Adisesha and Vayu Deva placed Meru parvat at the centre to decide who is stronger among them. Parvatam was held tightly by Adisesha and Vayu blew the wind to push Parvatham.


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This Divine Tilak is applied from the forehead to the nose. When Baba is given a bath by sevaks, this tilak comes off. Then in the auspicious time, the sevaks again apply tilak to Baba.


There is no auspicious time on the Amavasya. Because of this, tilak is not done on that day. That's why devotees have darshan of Shyam Baba on the Amavasya only in the actual real form (Shyam Swaroop). Baba's tilak is done on Amavasya only on the day of Deepawali.
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Following @BAUDEGS I have experienced hateful and propagandist tweets time after time. I have been shocked that an academic community would be so reckless with their publications. So I did some research.
The question is:
Is this an official account for Bahcesehir Uni (Bau)?


Bahcesehir Uni, BAU has an official website https://t.co/ztzX6uj34V which links to their social media, leading to their Twitter account @Bahcesehir

BAU’s official Twitter account


BAU has many departments, which all have separate accounts. Nowhere among them did I find @BAUDEGS
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Nanganallur Anjaneya Temple
#Chennai
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Sthala Puranam says that, this is the place where Indra Deva hit Hanuman on the cheek by his Vajrastram. Sri Raghavendra Swami and Sri Kanchi Paramacharyar were behind in building this temple. Temple is constructed to


Realize power of Anjaneyar who is seen both in Ramayana and Mahabharatha.
Vadamalai is important offering to Anjaneyar here. It is believed that vigraham contain powers to heal any disease. Shri Ramanavami is celebrated here.

Jai Sri Ram
Jai Hanuman
🙏🕉🙏
ALL