Inflation is coming, inflation is coming!

Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation

It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in

1/ A lot of people ask me how Bleacher Report found our first writers when we were tiny and had no funding.

So here's a thread on all the things we tried, what worked best, and lessons on growing a community from scratch:

2/ When we first started B/R, all the articles were written by my co-founders, our friends, and me.

This led to some hilariously bad takes. Like this article where I panned the SF Giants for drafting future World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner.

3/ When we were ready to start building our community, we started with word of mouth. We drafted an email pitching our concept. It went out to everyone we knew, asking them to share it with anyone who would be interested.

This got us maybe a few dozen signups.

From the email:

4/ With only a handful of members, we needed to make the community feel more active.

So we faked it til we made it.

Our team created multiple accounts and posted using different fake names. This created the sense of more activity and encouraged new members to join in.

5/ Later, I learned that the founders of Reddit did the same thing early on.

Sometimes the solution to the "chicken and the egg" problem of building community is to create the illusion of more chickens (or

10 Biggest Bank Robberies of All Time

Thieves made off with billions in these daring, historic heists.

A THREAD

10. The Dunbar Armored robbery

Stolen: $18.9 million

In 1997,6 men pulled off what remains the biggest cash heist in the history of the United States. The leader was Allen Pace, who turned out to be the worst "safety inspector" the Dunbar Armored trucking company ever employed.

Pace timed the security cameras at the Dunbar facility in Los Angeles so he could avoid them, and recruited five childhood friends to help him rob the vault. They broke in, assaulted two guards on their lunch breaks and loaded $18.9 million dollars into a U-Haul.

They almost got away with it — except one robber got sloppy and lent some of the stolen cash to a friend without removing the original cash straps.

9. The United California bank heist

Stolen: $30 million

In 1972, Amil Dinsio, a professional criminal from Ohio, assembled a gang of six robbers and flew them to California. They rented a town house and planned a heist on a bank where they had (mistakenly) heard President

This is value investor, Allan Mecham.

He dropped out of college at age 22 to start his fund, Arlington Value.

From 2008-2016, they did a CAGR of 30% over 8.5 years!

And in his fund letters, he shared his best frameworks for investing in companies.

Here's a breakdown of each:

1. Adopt a mindset for longevity

He focuses on variables that affect a business' durability.

Stuff like valuation doesn't matter if the business quality is misjudged.

Since a company's value is determined by its future cash flows...

Hence evaluating its future is key

2. Stay within your circle of competence

Allan is aware that his CoC is tiny!

Thus, he rarely buys companies that he:

• Hasn't researched
• Hasn't followed for at least a few years.

Because the best way to study a business is to observe its execution overtime.

3. Embrace volatility as a gift

Public markets offer you amazing deals you will never get in the private markets!

It's all about being patient.

The underlying value of a business is much more stable than the stock.

So you can buy great businesses that are mispriced!

4. Avoid noise and news

More information can give you a false sense of confidence.

It can create an illusion of "knowledge", and make you think many things are important.

The key is to know what are the 3-5 main variables in the company, and focus on those.

Ignore the rest.

Cont👇
26/ If you have paid AA tax between 1995-22 it is likely your charges will be lower in 1995 than in 2015 scheme. This is because the AA rules are particularly unfair to members of 2 schemes. If your AA charges go down during any of the remedy period, you can claim a refund

27/ It does not matter if you paid cash for AA or used scheme pays, if you overpaid these charges can be refunded. If you charges go up (unlikely unless you have “MHO” status) you may have to pay back tax. There is usually a statutory limit of 4 years for paying underpaid tax.

28/ This limit of 4 yrs of underpaid tax was referenced in the consultation document 👇, although the position is less clear in the full consultation response. We will need to see the final regulations to understand the implications.

29/ The consultation document also stated that members who choose reformed 2015 in retirement & incurred AA charges would be “compensated”. Again detail in is less clear in the full consultation response. We will need to see the final regulations to understand the implications.

30/An important area are “contingent decisions”. Many members took decisions i.e. “opting out” of the scheme based on the age discrimination. @theBMA argued certain cases should automatically be compensated vs having to prove this on a “case by case” basis