Inflation is coming, inflation is coming!

Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation

It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in

The British Railway Mania

How a disruptive technology created the biggest speculative bubble in the history of England

/THREAD/

1/ Railways were the most disruptive technology of the 19th century, known as the "railway age", transforming England from an agricultural to an industrialized nation.

2/ The development of railway infrastructure and locomotives started at the end of the 18th century but experienced immense growth after 1830.

3/ Hundreds of railway related bills were passed every year with proposed rails totaling 10,000 miles, a third of which was never built due to poor financial planning, competition, or fraud.

4/ In the mid-1840s, the Bank of England cut interest rates rendering government bonds unattractive, and investors more willing to rush in the railway investments.

My Chads, institutions and retail are entering the DeFi space at unprecedented volume. One of the key primitives in DeFi will be the securitization and tranching of DeFi and is still massively undervalued. Enter https://t.co/Gx4H3hIzNg ( $SFI ).

Don't worry, let me ELI5.

1/ Alright so securitization and tranching, that's a mouthful. 👅💦

Let's take a step back. If you look at any financial activity within DeFi, whether it is yield farming, lending or liquidity providing, there are risks involved.

2/ As an honest farmer / liquidity provider, the rewards are yield, and the risk is losing your funds due to e.g. smart contract risk and (potentially) IL.

As an honest lender, the rewards are interest, and risk is default of the borrower.

3/ 99% of the current retail participants don't use portfolio risk management in their DeFi activities. We farm a bit, IL a bit, loan and borrow a bit and hope we make gains at the end of the day. For institutions, portfolio management is much different.

4/ The problem for institutions to enter such DeFi activities as yield farming, liquidity providing and lending/borrowing, is that it's inherently risky and not quantifiable with variable rewards. We early adopters don't mind this risk, but this prevents adoption by institutions.

Nano Course On Python For Trading
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Module 3

In this post, I will attempt to teach you how to write an algorithm in python to automatically find support and resistance. We shall use the data we downloaded in module 2.

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To visualize price action, I have used the daily candlestick chart. To quantify the meaning of support and resistance, I have taken below definitions:
In a series of 5 continuous candles, if the first three candles make increasing high and then 2 decreasing highs, then the

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high of the third candle is considered resistance. Similarly, if the first 3 candles make lower lows and the next 2 make high lows then the low of the third candle is support.

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The above explanation is for the sake of quantifying support and resistance at a very basic level. These are called fractals. Now let's get started with the code.

mpl_finance is the new module here. We will use its candlestick_ohlc function.

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Now, if you remember, you downloaded data for nifty 50 stocks in module 2. We shall use that data. Let's work on ITC data this time.
We will use data from 1 Jan 2021 to 30 June 2021.

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Day in the Life of a Hedge Fund Analyst

Few live to tell the tale.

"Was it like Billions?"
"Describe ur investment process?"
"What did u learn?"

I get these questions all the time, but for a while I was afraid of answering publicly. No more!

Hedge fund story time.
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1/ ⏰ 6AM Pre-Market Review

Wake up thinking about ur overnight positions.
What happened during London/Asia trading?
Scan the major news on ur way to office.
🏢🚕🚶‍♀️

Think about how ur getting screwed by beta (general macro, FOMC, inflation, etc.) cuz ur net long (or net short).

2/ 7AM Portfolio Review

U'll typically have ~250 names in the portfolio "universe" (stocks w/ active positions & those on watchlist but already modeled).

Review each thesis vis-a-vis new market conditions. Anything changed?
Should u downside/upsize any?
New trade opportunities?

Here's a checklist of top items to check per company:

- Any earnings calls this week?
- Any product releases?
- Any new sell-side reports? Downgrades/Upgrades?
- Any M&A rumors in the space?
- Any management change announcements?
- Any guidance revisions?
- Any legal happenings?

3/ 8AM Plan out your daily/weekly agenda

Major types of events that'll populate ur calendar:
- Investor day at XYZ
- Q1-Q4 earnings call
- XYZ road show
- Dinner event w/ IR (investor relations) at XYZ
- Private buy-side bus trip (w/ mgmt @ XYZ) arranged by GS
- JPM conference