Sweden's elderly in 2020 recorded one of the lowest mortality rates in history.

Overall mortality rates in Sweden by age were excellent in 2020 and better than the 2015-2018 average mortality rates for nearly all age groups.

A deep dive into why 👇👇👇

Overall death numbers are meaningless without stratifying by age. Below, we have mortality rates from 2015-2020 by age groups 0-64, 65-79, 80-89, and 90+. The 65-79 group fared worst with ~3% inc. over 2015-18 average.

Amazingly, the 90+ group had lower mortality in 2020.
All age groups can be plotted on the same graph, but must be standardized since the range of values is so large (1 for 0-64 vs 200 for 90+)

Here, mortality rates are shown relative to 2018.
The most interesting observation (imo) is the significant drop in mortality rate in 2019 in all age groups.

Around 60% of all deaths in Sweden come from the 80+ age group. When mortality rates dropped 5% in 2019, this left a much larger than normal 80+ pop alive in 2020.
This lead to a swelling of the 80+ population in 2020 by 6.6%. This was by far the biggest percentage increase in one age group over the 5 year period of data

Pop. Deaths
2018 - 522k 54k
2019 - 536k 52k
2020 - 572k 59k
Looking at the extremes, the 100+ population increased by nearly 50%, from 2200 to 3100. The probability of death for a random 100 year old is 35%. So, this very small subset of the population (.03%) will be responsible for ~1.2% of all deaths in Sweden.
With this huge increase in 80+ population and a slight decline in the 0-64 population, Sweden was primed for a large increase in total deaths in 2020.

Total Deaths
2018 - 92185
2019 - 88766
2020 - 97811 (slight downward adjustment for leap year)
In conclusion, Sweden's total deaths increased by 10%, but their mortality rate by age was very similar to the 2015-2018 average. A substantial drop in mortality rates in 2019, left a much larger elderly population alive in 2020.
All data sources are from Sweden's official statistics page - https://t.co/mcvpPWfcdK

I used the June 2020 population estimate by age group for the analysis.
I've issued a correction to this. 2020 population numbers were slightly inflated, bringing mortality rates down to around the average of 2011-2020 and not lower than 2015-2018 average.

https://t.co/veHH4luKkF

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I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.

I credit Fintwit for my learnings.

Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:

1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger

(Read on...)

6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies

Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:

1. How much $$ do you need to retire

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10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.

Hint: It's NOT


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Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.

Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.

Conclusion?

To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.

Start with


3. Reading annual reports

This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.

You cannot just listen to opinions from others.

You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.

Start with the 10k.

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