
Actually reading through the Ofqual/DfE consultation rather than what has been said about it by others. It's not making me feel any better.




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The topic was “LongCovid, Myalgic Encephalomyelitis & More”.
I quote from memory.
1/n
#MECFS #LongCovid
Have you registered for IMHA's next webinar on Long-COVID? Guest speaker Professor Trisha Greenhalgh.
— CIHR-IMHA Community (@CIHR_IMHA) January 12, 2021
When? Tomorrow: *Jan 13th.* 12pm ET
A few spots are left, but going fast!
Registration required: https://t.co/T4PbWNA35Y@KarimKhan_IMHA @CIHR_IRSC @trishgreenhalgh pic.twitter.com/xlWKi4QKF1
The bulk of Prof @Trishgreenhalgh’s presentation was on the importance of recognising LongCovid patient’s symptoms, and pathways for patients which recognised their condition as real. So far so good.
She was asked about “Post Exertional Malaise”... 2/n
PEM has been reported by many patients, and is the hallmark symptom of ME/CFS, leading many to query whether LongCovid and ME/CFS are similar or have overlapping mechanisms.
@Trishgreenhalgh acknowledged the new @NiceComms advice for LongCovid was planned to complement... 3/n
the ME/CFS guidelines, acknowledging some similarities.
Then it all went wrong.
@TrishGreenhalgh noted the changes to the @NiceComms guidance for ME/CFS, removing support for Graded Exercise Therapy / Cognitive Behavioural Therapy. She noted there is a big debate about this. 4/n
That is correct: The BMJ published Prof Lynne Turner Stokes’ column criticising the change (Prof Turner-Stokes is a key proponent of GET/CBT, and I suspect is known to Prof @TrishGreenhalgh).
https://t.co/0enH8TFPoe
However Prof Greenhalgh then went off-piste.
5/n
The latest REACT1 report shows prevalence of infection in ALL age groups has fallen, including children aged 5-12 from 1.59% in Round 8 to 0.86% in Round 9a. The authors of REACT1 report also (wisely) didn't try to interpret the prevalence figures.
If this were a research trial you wouldn't place much weight on the age differences in % prevalence because of the wide confidence intervals, i.e. differences weren't statistically significant.
3/
I've previously tweeted on the challenges (& dangers) of interpreting surveillance data. One would need lots more contextual info to make sense of it & arrive at sound
Misinterpretation of surveillance data is a serious issue. Surveillance data needs to come with a warning label - Open to biases - interpret with caution! Some may not realize that surveillance often does not measure all infection, it's a proxy for actual disease incidence.
— Andrew Lee (@andrewleedr) February 14, 2021
1/
Undoubtedly some will extrapolate from the prevalence of infection figures in children to other settings i.e. schools based on the headline. I'd advise caution as there is a real risk of over-interpretation through extrapolation of limited data. Association is not causation.
5/
I am yet to find a fully convincing account of what caused the emergence of the two contrasting schools of Ahl Al-\u1e24ad\u012bth in the \u1e24ij\u0101z and Ahl Al-Ra'\u012b in Al-K\u016bfa.
— Amir Aboguddah \u0623\u0645\u064a\u0631 \u0623\u0628\u0648\u063a\u062f\u0629 (@Amir_Aboguddah) January 20, 2021
My issue with the accounts are as follows:
Ibn Khaldun makes an important distinction between what he calls العُمران الحضري and العمران البدوي, which, for convenience’s sake, I’ll translate as urban civilisation and rural/Bedouin lifestyle.
He notes that the rural world is largely nomadic, and, as such, Bedouins build character traits that assist the survivalist lifestyle — e.g. the fact that they have to kill snakes that might pop up at any time during their travels helps them build courage and bravery.
The lack of stability and a proper settlement means they don’t really have the luxury of sitting down to let their minds wonder around. They thus build a preservation mindset, which manifests itself through emphasis on memorisation and transmission.
Inhabitants of urban world, on the other hand, are largely settled and established. This means they face less attacks from snakes, lions or danger of human attack from other tribes. Thus, they don’t build the courage and bravery of the Bedouins.