Today’s GDP release, and in particular how the economy has adapted, a thread.👇

After 6 months of growth, the economy started shrinking again in November as tighter restrictions were in place. (Though there were variations across Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.) (1/n)
The economy shrank by 2.6% in November. In normal times this would be a significant downturn, but it is much smaller than the falls seen with the first restrictions in the spring: April GDP fell by around 20%. In that sense it is good news. But why the smaller fall? (2/n)
Firstly, some industries remain very depressed. Airlines (air transport in the chart) for example, were operating at very low levels in October so there wasn’t much further for their output to fall. This is different from the picture in Mar/Apr. (3/n)
The same is true, though perhaps less pronounced, for bars/restaurants and other parts of the service sector. (4/n)
Secondly, some sections of the economy have undergone a structural shift that has allowed them to continue to meet demand/produce output. Perhaps the best example is in retail. Overall sales in November were higher than pre-pandemic despite the restrictions. (5/n)
This is due, in part, to the shift online, which allowed sales to continue when shops were shut. These structural shifts create winners (on-line retailers) and losers (high-street), so a positive overall story can hide some significant distress for some businesses. (6/n)
There are also knock-on effects of this move on-line, with courier/postal services seeing growth through the pandemic. (7/n)
And there have been wider changes: food retailers have gained at the expenses of restaurants, and home improvement shops have benefited as consumers appeared to shift expenditure from other activities such as holidays and travel. (8/n)
Whether these changes are permanent or temporary, we will have to wait to see. (9/n)
Thirdly, individual industries (and businesses) have become more resilient to the restrictions. We saw big falls in construction during the first set of national restrictions, but continued growth during the November restrictions. (10/n)
This is likely due to social distancing in workplaces, etc. that have allowed operations to continue. (11/n)
Overall, the economic impacts are smaller this time. But we should not lose sight of the fact that the economy has still taken a large hit from the pandemic, and beneath the surface there are hugely different experiences for different sectors, businesses and people. (ENDS)

More from Economy

Interesting thread, but I don't think ecosocialists or degrowthers are arguing that if German socialists had come to power the world would be green by now. Socialism is not automatically green. Eco-socialism is what it says - a green version of socialism - to be tested /1


The historical counterfactual also in not totally convincing. So let's assume Germany and Europe went socialist. The world economy would have evolved exactly the same way it did? 🤔 I doubt it, this is too deterministic. Examples: /2

We do not know if the transition from coal to oil would have taken place when it took place, the way it did. From Timothy Mitchell we know that oil was a fix for capitalism to bypass the labour strikes of coal workers. One would think that socialists would treat workers better /3

We also do not know if socialist governments would strong arm the Middle East the way capitalists did, starting wars to secure cheap oil, and setting up puppet governments. One would want to think that Rosa Luxembourg would not go down that path..../4

We also do not know if they would have continued colonial unequal exchange, extracting raw materials as cheap as possible from the rest of the world. Without cheap oil and cheap materials, it is anyone's guess if GDP and CO2 would be where it is now. /5

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