0/ A holiday economic theory reading list. Some of my favorite pieces on theory that can be read with minimal sweat, but with the maximal intellectual reward. In no particular order:

1/ Myerson 1999. "Nash equilibrium & history of economic theory." JEL. Written with characteristic Myersonian elegance. "how a few short papers by a young mathematician achieved one of the great watershed breakthroughs in the history of social science."
https://t.co/XqDtKBcrAD
2/ Blackwell & DeGroot 1986. “A conversation with David Blackwell.” Stat Science. After his PhD at 21, "There were 105 black colleges at that time & I wrote 105 letters of application." Beautiful discussion on a gamut of ideas & his intellectual life. https://t.co/vfjbPpf21B
3/ Geanakoplos 1992. “Common Knowledge.” JEP. Zuper piece, lucidly written. Lots of interesting puzzles, great for teaching. When Moriarty says "All I have to say has already crossed your mind," Holmes retorts "then possibly my answer has crossed yours." https://t.co/JQOUsPipDn
4/ Morris 1995. "The common prior assumption in economic theory.” E&P. This beauty was Stephen's first chap of PhD thesis! Does rationality imply CP? Does relaxing CP make theorizing uninteresting? Is failure of CP a failure of information processing?
https://t.co/RnCg0JIl07.
5/ Aumann & Hart 2005. “An interview with Robert Aumann." Macro Dyn. To be savored with a steaming cup of chai (or whisky on rocks). Brimming with deep moments. Aumann's view on the folk theorem, how agree to disagree came about, religion, much more.
https://t.co/xO2BnIYlhw?
6/ Rubinstein 2006. “Dilemmas of an economic theorist.” Ecmta. What are we all trying to do writing models? Rubinstein at his insightful (and provocative) best. "I do think we are simply the tellers of fables, but is that not wonderful?"
https://t.co/bYPAsWbJ8G
7/ Gilboa, Postlewaite & Schmeidler 2008. "Probability & uncertainty in economic modeling." JEP. Beautiful overview of subjective probabilities, Savage's theory of choice, limits of the sure thing principle, Ellsberg paradox, and multiple priors approach. https://t.co/HPi5pFrwf4
7/ cont See also a valiantly argued and thoughtful critique of the ambiguity/MP approach by Al-Najjar & Weinstein.
https://t.co/3jDTnzdt3c
8/ Ostrom 1999 "Coping with the tragedy of commons." Ann Rev Pol Sc. Hardin's idea arguably one of greatest insights of recent times. Ostrom elegantly & persuasively recasts the question in view of evidence from the field and the lab. Research ideas here! https://t.co/r2WEl6cUpg
9/ Rabin 1998. “Psychology and economics" JEL. A fantastic documentation of the "first wave" of behavioral economics. Heuristics, biases and their impact of decision making, and the broader quest to incorporate more psychology into economic theory.
https://t.co/OtwEP9pyks
10/ Read everything by/on Joan Robinson. Remarkable economic theorist of 20th cntry. Found a beautiful essay by her in Cambridge library "Economics is a serious subject (1932)" hard to find copy. Here is NYT on her in 1972 & thread by @Undercoverhist https://t.co/kPdnBnnH6n
11/ Haile 2020, “Structural vs. reduced form: Language, confusion, and models in empirical economics." working slides. Superb deck to understand (amongst other things) role of models in empirical work. Hope @PhilHaile can do a Zoom lecture on this soon!
https://t.co/uVTHNnTAMc
12/ Extra credit! The Economist's "School briefs". Lucidly written summaries of some great ideas of modern economics. https://t.co/Ep9PAHXCS2. And, "A mathematician's apology (1940)" by GH Hardy-- on the value of abstraction beyond immediate applications
https://t.co/PRpTdpURDM
13(end)/ Here is hoping we all continue to theorize as we end this painful year for mankind. In addition to the putting that critical structure on data, it may provide us "narratives that make us look at reality differently" (David Pearce). A promise for our polarized times.

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$600/wk Unemployment Insurance cannot deliver the benefits of a $600/wk Job Guarantee. From the outset, I should say JG is not a replacement for UI, no matter what you may have heard. I’ll get to this later, but read this long 🧶 w/ that in mind.


Automatic stabilization: Both $600/wk UI and JG will provide counter cyclical spending. But UI will be weaker. Counter-cyclical stabilization is not just about the absence of income. It is also about the transmission and structure of economy

Firms don't like to hire the unemployed. Mass and long-term unemployment make the problem worse. JG would recover labor markets much faster than a UI of the same amount, both b/c of the higher direct, induced & tertiary employment effects & b/c of private firm hiring preferences.

JG stabilizes spending patterns better. Uncertain job prospects may mean more cautious spending from the unemployed compared to those w/ guaranteed jobs.
UI is temporary, which makes matters worse. Even if it were permanent, it still won't resolve the problem of job scarcity.

Nations who once achieved tight full employment through active labor market policies demonstrate that unemployment does NOT fluctuate the same way it does w/o them. Direct employment, ELR type policies diminish drastically/even eliminate these amplitudes (eg postwar Japan/Sweden)
The argument for deficits & debt raising interest rates in the US is not increased credit risk, it is that interest rates are a function of economic fundamentals, flows & policy. Deficits/debt change those.

I can't tell if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with @jc_econ.


Increasing government spending or reducing taxes increases demand (or reduces saving). This raises the price of loanable funds or the interest rate.

In a dynamic context, more demand means a stronger economy, the central bank raises interest rates sooner, and long rates rise.

(As an aside, we are not close to the United States needing to worry about credit risk and the risks are more overstated than understated in most other advanced economies too. But credit risk is not always & everywhere irrelevant, just look at the UK in 1976 or Canada in 1994.)

Interest rates have fallen over the last 20 yrs while debt has risen. This does not necessarily mean that debt rising causes interest rates to fall. It could also mean that other things have happened at he same time that pushed down interest rates more than debt pushed them up.

The suspects for these "other things" include slower productivity growth, slower popln growth, higher inequality, less investment, etc. All of which either increase the supply of saving or reduce the demand for investment, reducing the equilibrium interest rate.

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