BC ECONOMY
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

The argument for deficits & debt raising interest rates in the US is not increased credit risk, it is that interest rates are a function of economic fundamentals, flows & policy. Deficits/debt change those.

I can't tell if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with @jc_econ.

 Increasing government spending or reducing taxes increases demand (or reduces saving). This raises the price of loanable funds or the interest rate.

In a dynamic context, more demand means a stronger economy, the central bank raises interest rates sooner, and long rates rise.
(As an aside, we are not close to the United States needing to worry about credit risk and the risks are more overstated than understated in most other advanced economies too. But credit risk is not always & everywhere irrelevant, just look at the UK in 1976 or Canada in 1994.)
Interest rates have fallen over the last 20 yrs while debt has risen. This does not necessarily mean that debt rising causes interest rates to fall. It could also mean that other things have happened at he same time that pushed down interest rates more than debt pushed them up.
The suspects for these "other things" include slower productivity growth, slower popln growth, higher inequality, less investment, etc. All of which either increase the supply of saving or reduce the demand for investment, reducing the equilibrium interest rate.
When interest rates are at zero and expected to be there for a while then fiscal expansions will not raise interest rates very much if at all. And if it raise inflation/expected growth then fiscal expansions are more likely to crowd in investment instead of crowding them out.
Moreover, interest rates are likely to be low even after the economy recovers for all of the structural reasons that made them very low even before the pandemic crisis hit (the real 10-year rate rate was negative in February). If fiscal policy can raise rates that would be good.
Higher interest rates would create more scope for monetary policy to cut rates when it needs to, reduce risk taking in financial markets and help the soundness of the banking system.
We have much more fiscal space than many think but it is not infinite because if you raise debt way too much r - g won't stay negative.

We still need some prioritization. If I thought r - g would be negative forever regardless of debt then why raise the top rate from 37 to 39.6?
In sum: The argument for expansionary fiscal policy now is that it it is unlikely to drive up interest rates & could crowd in investment.

An argument for not pivoting to fiscal consolidation is that higher rates are more of a plus not a minus.

Do also need to prioritize.

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And know how Li Ziqi got her 12m YouTube subscribers

2) MCNs are modern-day talent agencies (but more) who target influencers and creators as their clients. It originated in the US but has proliferated in China, with industry estimates of 5k-7k Chinese MCN operating as of 2020.

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My friend @itsafronomics wanted to know the breakdown of student debt by income, so I pulled data from the SCF.

Student debt is more concentrated amongst high earners, but disproportionately amongst Black borrowers. The plot below plots the average within Income Quartiles.
1/n


But those are the averages. What's the share that's above 10k? (This is the Biden current cutoff for debt forgiveness, so a useful benchmark).

For comparison, 20% of white Americans have student debt, and 31% of Black Americans.


Let's contrast that with say, above 20k. I was surprised at how high the share remains.


When we get to 50k of student debt, or more, we see it's only about 5% of the US, and around 8% of Black Americans. Strikingly, it's a huge share of high income Black Americans (this is a known fact in the education literature, I believe).


So what does this look like put together? Overall, we see a higher share of Americans with debt above 10k, and 20k. We would cover a decent amount with 10k, but miss Black Americans especially.
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The 6yo doesnt cycle in a complete straight line yet so one of us cycles abreast of him just in case. Lots of drivers waited patiently for a long time before overtaking slowly and safely. Thank you for this. Sudden accelerating engines make the 6yo less likely to stay straight.

Some drivers, sadly not an insignificant number, decided they needed to get past more quickly and more slowly than was safe. Where were they all going to and why the need to be so impatient? It's not like there is anything to get to quickly at the moment.

Drivers coming the other way were generally the biggest threat. The roads were double parked with people using the park (worst I have have ever seen) resulting in narrow road space. Drivers did not slow down to adjust to this or to us cycling alongside the 6yo.

One driver overtaking a parked car had to encroach on to our side of the road. Instead of waiting he pushed out and shook his head at us. Did he think we shouldn't be on the road with a small child or did he just think he had priority? Either way he was wrong.
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