.@naval: I can't imagine working on anything besides crypto. Crypto was the biggest changemaker and biggest wealth maker of 2020.
.@balajis: Crypto is a civilization technology
.@naval: Property rights is one of the hardest problems. That's why we need nation state. Nation states do property rights. #BTC is solving this. #BTC is solving the hardest problem. If we can solve the BTC problem, we can solve everything else (decentralized media, file storage)
.@naval: I think the next big thing we're going to see is decentralize social networks. All the centralized social networks just created the 2008-2009 moment, it's going to change everything.
.@balajis switches topics to privacy:
I think we'll see a crypto operating system where everything from your messages, payments, identity, authentication etc will all be on blockchains.
@naval: "The unstoppable and un-snoopable phone"
.@balajis: Eventually password managers and crypto wallets will converge because they're the same thing. By the mid 2020s we'll see phones come with a charger and a hardware wallet. It goes into the phone port and allows you to unlock your crypto.
.@naval: The original internet protocols (e.g. HTTP) were stateless. So then private companies like Facebook started to store state and identity. But now they own and have data lock-in. Bitcoin is now the first *stateful* protocol. The data is all public and open to anyone.
.@naval explains this tweet: https://t.co/bE83SBo5gN

In the future, there will be one canonical social protocol with all the social data. The future YouTubes, Clubhouses, and Twitters will all be built on the winning social protocol. (We don't know yet which one will win.)
.@naval: I want to be totally platform-independent. If Twitter goes away, if Twitter deplatforms me, or if someone else deplatforms Twitter, I don't want to lose my followers or profile.
.@naval: Instead of following me on Twitter, you'll follow a pointer to me on the blockchain. If Twitter deplatforms me, I'll update the pointer to my new location on the blockchain.
.@naval: The other advantage of decentralized social networks is payments built-in. Right now, YouTube takes much more of the value created by users of the platform then they deserve.
.@naval: Decentralized social media will also be programmable. No more being limited by the one client made by the single company. In the future, there will be 100s of clients all competing with each other, all using the same underlying decentralized social protocol.
.@naval: The future decentralized social protocol will create trillions of dollars in value, but it won't all go to a few companies in the Bay Area. It'll be distributed across all the users of the platform.
.@naval: Decentralized social media is what I want to spend the next significant years of my professional career working on. Don't want to be a serf on Jack's or Zuck's farm.
.@naval: I want my followers to be permanent. I don't want to be de-platformed. I want my followers forever just like email addresses or RSS subscribers.

More from Crypto

Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis argues that it is not always obvious who (China or the U.S.) adjusts best to "turbulent changes."
Bitcoin answers that question.
Thread:


World economies currently suffer four major redistribution challenges:
The most important is increasing government stealth use of the monetary system to confiscate assets from productive actors.
/2

That process is exacerbated by "Cantillon Effect" transfers to interest groups close to government ("the entitled class," public sector workers, the medical industrial complex, academia, etc....), which is destroying much of that wealth /3

The shadow nature (see Keynes) of government inflation makes the process unidentifiable, un-addressable and undemocratic.
The biggest victims (America's poorly educated young) are unequipped to counter generational confiscation tactics of today's wily senior beneficiaries. /4

Government control of the numéraire in key economic statistics (GDP, inflation, etc...) makes it impossible for economic actors to measure progress and liabilities. /5
You may be wondering why @bristoliver rather cryptically RT’d a chart that I posted last night. The answer is not just that he loves quadratic fits on log axes, but that this chart may –and I stress may– hint at a vaccine effect amongst the over 80s THREAD


WARNING: this is a long thread, and it’s a bit of a roller-coaster. We find some apparently strong patterns in the data, and then start to unpick them a bit. So if you start getting excited half way through you might find you’re less excited at the end. But we’ll see…

First we first have to go back a bit. @bristoliver posted a thread a few days ago explaining why, with a constant vaccination rate, a log plot of cases should show a quadratic form. In other words, it should fit an equation like: a + b.x + c.x^2

I meant to link in the model thread there - here it is


the quadratic coefficient – the ‘c’ in that equation – gives an estimate of the % of the population who are being newly protected by the vaccine each day. Please note ‘protected by the vaccine’, not ‘vaccinated’ – as we don't expect 100% protection after the first dose
1. You also have to give them a landing. It's tempting, I know, to take the pent up rage out on the only ones who respond to you (like @ProjectLincoln!) or Never Trumpers like @RadioFreeTom or @BillKristol bc they were "guilty" in the past or "waited too long" like @WalshFreedom


2. but at each of the big inflection moments where Trump lost support I've begged non-Rs to consider the fact that if Trump supporters see that they have nowhere to go, they will stay w the only people that DO accept them, & the price might actually be the collapse of democracy

3. which, until Weds, some people thought I was being hyperbolic about. I WASN'T! When the MAINSTREAM of a major political party divorces themselves from democratic norms & values & its supporters turn to a fictionalized world to justify their political party's actions, your

4. country's stability is at risk & one by-product of poor messaging on the Dem side is that extremism on the Right was able to not only take root in the Rep Party, it was able to take OVER the R party & become the party's mainstream- pinnacled w the presidential win via the EC

5. of Donald Trump, w/o the GOP paying any electoral price for their extremism. A healthy Rep Party might have found the courage to reject Trump's nomination & accept the short term costs that would have come w refusing to endorse his 2016 candidacy. But the Rep Party of 2016

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