BC CRYPTO
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

1/ “Bitcoin is better at being gold than gold” - SkyBridge Capital

@Scaramucci 's SkyBridge Capital released their investment thesis for their new Bitcoin Fund LP. They go a step further than other investors in why they are actively choosing bitcoin over gold

A thread 👇

 2/ SkyBridge Capital’s main fund, with $9.3B AUM, had invested ~$182M in BTC. In Dec., they announced they were raising a new, separate Bitcoin only fund and already transferring ~$25M of BTC into it
3/ Today they opened to accredited investors w/ min invstmnt of at $50K. This Bitcoin LP won’t trade BUT you only pay 0.75% annual fee and no premium, the portfolio is priced by Bloomberg’s fixed rate (XBT). In contrast, GBTC trades OTC, a 2% yr fee, and a premium to BTC’s price
4/ Their website is a vast library of info. Not just their Offering Memo, pres. & investment thesis. It also includes:
- FAQ videos (Michael Saylor features and Scaramucci has cited him as a major influence)
- Readings on Bitcoin (@real_vijay The Bullish Case for Bitcoin)
5/ Towards the bottom of the page, they also take a dig at GBTC’s premium and offer to walk through a “GBTC swap” to their fund. They understand the hurdles that many traditional investors face in investing into BTC and lean into it

https://t.co/gQBrGYKy7m
6/ But more enjoyable than reading digs at GBTC, is reading the digs on Gold. Because, as other large institutional investors have recently bought Bitcoin, they have largely done so while also still holding gold
7/ An example - Ruffer’s $775M bitcoin ($27B AUM) buy through their multi strat fund (~2.5% of the portfolio) was a huge step...but still small compared to their gold and inflation linked bonds holdings…
8/ Another example - The head of global equities at Jefferies cut the gold exposure in the long-only pension funds in favor of Bitcoin...but BTC remains 5% allocation vs. 65% Gold bullion/mining
9/ With a Bitcoin only LP, there’s no getting around the question of “why BTC vs. gold?.” SkyBridge needs to tackle it head on, and they do. Their investment thesis is 10 pages (not including legal disclaimers) and ~1/3 are why gold is inferior to BTC and how BTC will be gold 2.0
10/ They quickly establish that there is a need for a deflationary asset - increasing debt, increasing money supply, low interest rates

They then quickly ask is “Gold to the rescue?”

No.
11/ The major points for pro BTC vs. gold?
- Fixed vs. limited supply (G increases ~1.25%/yr)
- Tech industry will be primary driver of marginal wealth creation(a digital asset fits)
- More wealth is being transferred to Millennials- transferability/storage of BTC fits this demo
12/ A summary graphic is also included
13/ The SkyBridge presentation expands on Gold 2.0 even further - why Bitcoin is superior and uses gold as an example of potential growth

As they say in the opening page, “Bitcoin is better at being gold than gold”
14/ The presentation and thesis continue with covering the halvings, growing adoption and bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier, but my favorite part remains an institutional investor directly addressing the question of why Bitcoin over gold?
15/ TL;DR: The launch of the SkyBridge Bitcoin LP is another strong step in Bitcoin’s adoption by investors

1) They address the problematic premium w/ GBTC for investors
2) They address head on why an institutional investor would choose Bitcoin over gold

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1/29 #Bitcoin thread, updated version

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TLDR at 27-29
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2/ 2 Year MA Multiplier
This indicator uses the 2Y MA. Green line is the 2Y MA, red is the same MA x5

2ya MA multiplier is rising and at ~48k rn. Price goes parabolic. I would personally love to get a decent correction, would give more space for growth long term imho.


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Paper p/l in $Btc. Use it to track investor sentiment.
Market is overheating, everybody is in paper profits, but as you can see “we” as a whole take too less profit. We can stay around greed for a whole year, but a correction at this point makes sense


4/ 200 Week MA Heatmap
#Bitcoin likes to bottom out near the 200W MA
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Blue/purple = Buying opportunity
Orange/red = TP opportunity
The bigger the distraction, the more parabolic price goes, simply said
First green coming(?) Room for growth


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To identify periods when $Btc is extremely under/overvalued.

Green= MV unusually far below RV, buying opp
Red=MV unusually high above RV, TP opp.

Now: heating up. Correction first to cool it off plz :)
Nice uptick in realized value.
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This is bad. Continue reading why and how to avoid this in the future.

👇👇👇


2/ Before you go all rage on the flaws of my analysis, please read the whole Twitter thread for disclaimers and caveats.


3/ approve() is an unnecessary step of ERC-20 tokens when they interact with smart contracts.

You know this because when you do a Uniswap trade you need press two transaction buttons instead of one.


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So, let's break down the basics of some of the top protocols.

First on deck: Aave (@AaveAave), an Ethereum-based money market protocol.

A 🧵


TL;DR: Aave is a protocol through which any user anywhere in the world can take decentralized loans by collateralizing their assets.

Aave also allows those will idle assets to earn a relatively safe return on capital from lenders, whose rates are determined by a curve.

1/ For years, most crypto assets had no indirect or direct utility.

Users would hold BTC, ETH, and other assets (including many ERC-20 tokens) with no expectation of a native yield or dividends.

ETH, for instance, was long just an asset for transaction fees, as was Bitcoin.

2/ If users wanted to borrow against their assets, they were relegated to centralized platforms—which were few and far between years ago.

3/ Aave, formerly ETHLend, is a protocol allowing users the ability to lend and borrow on-chain, without KYC and untransparent fees.

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But I have studied bull and bear cycles and financial bubbles extensively. Saw 1992, 2000, 2008 with own eyes. The first one as a novice, the next two when I knew to analyze

The amount of chatter I am seeing in friends, family and social media about cryptos has gone through the roof. For everyone, it's a dream to make 100x or even 1000x easily. Basically, become stinking rich easily
( it never happens )

In any financial bubble, the top is made in extreme speed and violence. The distribution happens on the way down. Unless one saw the rates of 65k on bitcoin, one wouldn't buy at 30-35k or 20k. That 65k is an anchor point which leads to greed

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Then there is this joke called NFT. A piece of "digital art" basically made by someone on their computer ( who is not even a known artist) are being sold for millions of dollars
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