For the sake of a public record, I would like to lay out my prediction for how this next #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto bull market plays out...

@RaoulGMI @PrestonPysh @AriDavidPaul

Bitcoin will top out somewhere between $200k and $300k.

I am not of the belief that this is going to be the "final cycle" where BTC soaks up the world's wealth, goes to $1 million and rewrites financial history. I do not think...
That Bitcoin is headed permanently to the moon on this go round. After this cycle peaks I would expect a 60 to 80% retrace.

The macro narrative is taking shape that BTC is a hedge against inflation, however...
I don't think we're actually going to get the inflation everyone expects.

In order to get secular, painful, obvious inflation I think that several things need to happen. We need a more accommodating government (MMT) which we don't...
Have yet, as evidenced by Mitch blocking the $2k stimulus.

At this point we don't have the system necessary to fire the fiscal bazookas fast enough to overcome the forces of deflation.

I think that we'll get a MMT government eventually, but it could take several years...
Furthermore, for optimal transmission we really need a CBDC.

The Obama administration spent $400 million on a website that didn't work, how fast do we really believe the United States government is going to be able to create a 99.99999% reliable...
CBDC that is secure enough to function as the world's reserve token?

Who the hell knows, but it sure as hell isn't coming in 2021, 2022, or probably even 2023. A full rollout might not even happen till 2025 or 2026.

So without a...
A MMT government, and without a CBDC for fast money transmission, I just don't see any way that we get the extreme inflation that BTC is supposedly going to protect us against.

Yet...
Assuming that BTC follows its traditional 4 year cycle, the next bull market will be starting in roughly 2024.

By that time the situation may be very, very different. Central bank printing will be off the charts, more than anyone imagines. There is MMT, UBI...
Infrastructure spending and of course, good old QE.

There may even be a pilot version of a CBDC, or at the very least the government has figured out how to quickly distribute $$$ to the people without using dead trees.

Against this macro backdrop I think BTC will...
Serve as a NECESSARY hedge against inflation. That macro backdrop is what takes us to a (devalued) $1 million BTC (or more).

Ironically, we've all heard the maxim that markets love to dole out maximum pain...
Well, imagine if a whole crop of investors get burned buying BTC in this current cycle (as an inflation hedge) and then the price crashes and there's still not much inflation.

Those investors may be hesitant to buy BTC next cycle, since inflation never happened before...
So why bother this time? Boy who cried wolf, etc.

Except that next time the ugly inflation may actually happen. And Bitcoin goes to $1 million and stays there.

If there is any chance that Bitcoin ever becomes a worldwide currency, this is when it happens...
That's my take on the orange coin, and this is the framework I will be using to inform my actions throughout this impending bull market.

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A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:


2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:

Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”

Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.
क्या आप जानते हैं कि क्या है, पितृ पक्ष में कौवे को खाना देने के पीछे का वैज्ञानिक कारण!

श्राद्ध पक्ष में कौओं का बड़ा ही महत्व है। कहते है कौआ यम का प्रतीक है, यदि आपके हाथों दिया गया भोजन ग्रहण कर ले, तो ऐसा माना जाता है कि पितरों की कृपा आपके ऊपर है और वे आपसे ख़ुश है।


कुछ लोग कहते हैं की व्यक्ति मरकर सबसे पहले कौवे के रूप में जन्म लेता है और उसे खाना खिलाने से वह भोजन पितरों को मिलता है

शायद हम सबने अपने घर के किसी बड़े बुज़ुर्ग, किसी पंडित या ज्योतिषाचार्य से ये सुना होगा। वे अनगिनत किस्से सुनाएंगे, कहेंगे बड़े बुज़ुर्ग कह गए इसीलिए ऐसा करना

शायद ही हमें कोई इसके पीछे का वैज्ञानिक कारण बता सके।

हमारे ऋषि मुनि और पौराणिक काल में रहने वाले लोग मुर्ख नहीं थे! कभी सोचियेगा कौवों को पितृ पक्ष में खिलाई खीर हमारे पूर्वजों तक कैसे पहुंचेगी?

हमारे ऋषि मुनि विद्वान थे, वे जो बात करते या कहते थे उसके पीछे कोई न कोई वैज्ञानिक कारण छुपा होता था।

एक बहुत रोचक तथ्य है पितृ पक्ष, भादो( भाद्रपद) प्रकृति और काक के बीच।

एक बात जो कह सकते कि हम सब ने स्वतः उग आये पीपल या बरगद का पेड़/ पौधा किसी न किसी दीवार, पुरानी

इमारत, पर्वत या अट्टालिकाओं पर ज़रूर देखा होगा। देखा है न?

ज़रा सोचिये पीपल या बरगद की बीज कैसे पहुंचे होंगे वहाँ तक? इनके बीज इतने हल्के भी नहीं होते के हवा उन्हें उड़ाके ले जा सके।