"At the start of 2020, the dollar’s run had endured 100 years. That would have been reason to question how much longer it could continue." This crude instance of the gambler's fallacy is one of many reasons why I find Ruchir Sharma's FT piece unconvincing:

Another is his suggestion that, although "When the pandemic hit, the US dollar was as mighty as ever," the pandemic has changed that. To paraphrase Mark Twain, rumors of the end of the dollar's "exorbitant privilege" are much exaggerated.
In fact the demand for dollars rose to exceptional levels early in the crisis; if it has declined somewhat since, it is only from that unusual peak: https://t.co/0kUWbMDI8v
Then there is this glaring non-sequitur: "US officials were thus confident that...they could print the dollar in limitless quantities without undermining its reserve currency status. ...But a new class of contenders is emerging: cryptocurrencies."
But? The rise of cryptos has practical no bearing on how many dollars the Fed can create without undermining the dollar's int'l appeal or otherwise resulting in its "debasement." Sure, many Bitcoin fans _think_ the dollar is going to crash. But that hardly means it will!
In short, it simply isn't true that "The pandemic has made those crypto-pitches sound less like pure digital hype." The only change is that the FT is now adding to that hype!
Ruchir then appeals to growing U.S. indebtedness."The dollar’s reign is likely to end," he says, "when the rest of the world starts losing confidence that the US can keep paying its bills." It's enough to make this MMT skeptic think, where's @StephanieKelton when we need her?"
If he take Prof. Kelton's word for it that the world isn't about to quit paying its bills, Mr. Ruchin ought to read @dandolfa's more mainstream treatment of the limits of U.S. indebtedness: https://t.co/1p02e9dp0p
Ruchir assures us that "Bitcoin is also starting to make progress on its ambition to replace the dollar as a medium of exchange." Well, if you watch a snail long enough, you will see it "make progress on" circumnavigating the globe.
For a recent, down-to earth assessment of Bitcoin's (very limited) medium of exchange progress, I recommend this @jillruthcarlson essay: https://t.co/2xABXBdpfO
Finally, like too many Bitcoin enthusiasts, Mr. Ruchir seems not to appreciate the powerful "network effects" that make it exceedingly difficult for any upstart would-be monetary standard to pose any great threat to the bad-old USD: https://t.co/BiSBAnhsGA
@DanAwrey @dandolfa @DavidBeckworth @nic__carter @norbertjmichel @michaelsderby

More from Crypto

1/ Welcome to #DeFi Wednesday.

Let's talk about how interest-bearing cash on a blockchain is going to revolutionise boring corporate treasury management that concerns every company is is a larger business than all crypto trading in the world.

Enter the thread

👇👇👇


2/ Blockchain community is often seen as toxic maxis and redditors who shill other their weekly favourite shitcoin in the hope of getting Lambo.

Sometimes we also do things that progress humanity towards the better future and interest-bearing cash is one of those things.


3/ Less chad and more things that actually matter:

My incomplete theory of interest-bearing cash is also available also as a blog post:

https://t.co/uiG0fZiVyu

It is 15 pages. Pick your slow poison or die fast by continue reading here.

4/ First time in the history we have an ability to create interest-bearing cash-like instruments.

Interest-bearing cash ticks up dollar (euro) balance real-time in your wallet.

Here is a demonstration using @aaveaave aDAI, based on @makerdao DAI, and @TrustWalletApp


5/ Interest-bearing cash is not like your bank's saving account. Your money in a bank is not yours, but bank's. There are some flaws in the current banking system causing a headache for Chief Financial Officers (CFOs)
1/ A thread on Nexgen’s Arrow & the #uranium cycle ($NXE)


2/ Given the scale and cost structure of Arrow, it makes sense that investors are intensely focused on its delivery timeline. This thread will discuss possible timelines, current market expectations (i.e., what’s “priced in”) & how different Arrow scenarios will impact the mkt.

3/ As you can see from the litany of responses to Michael’s tweet, there is great skepticism in the market regarding Arrow’s timeline. This is largely due to a bearish narrative conveyed by competing CEO’s whose assets only hold value if Arrow is substantially delayed.

4/ Those who played “King of the Hill” as a child would remember that it is the person at the top who is constantly attacked, not the kid sitting at the bottom of the hill in the mud. No one cares enough about that kid to attack them. This is a good parable for $NXE & Uranium.

5/ First a quick note on “this cycle” – Segra generally defines this cycle as the deficits forecasted from the mid-2020s to late-2030s. When people imply an asset producing in the mid-to-late 2020s will “miss the cycle”, they clearly have not done any real S/D modelling.

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