Leveraging The TIE’s Crypto SigDev™ feed we set out to identify whether news moved the crypto market and what, if any, impact sentiment had following key announcements.
SigDevs are news on token updates or major events (like M&A and Listings).
1/
So what actually moves the prices of cryptocurrencies? We spent over a month parsing through data to answer that question for you 👀👀
Special thanks to @eToroUS for partnering with us on this research
A thread:
Leveraging The TIE’s Crypto SigDev™ feed we set out to identify whether news moved the crypto market and what, if any, impact sentiment had following key announcements.
SigDevs are news on token updates or major events (like M&A and Listings).
Looking at maximum price increases within 24 hours after different SigDev announcements, we see that certain announcements tend to procure more responses than others. These are ordered from left to right in order of increasing average positive effect on price.
These initial results are intuitive: one would expect 51% attacks — a negative assault on a blockchain — to not typically have a positive effect on price, while getting listed on a new exchange (“Listing”) increases demand for a cryptocurrency and thus should increase value
Although Listings and Partnerships have an immediate large influence on price, it does not mean the increase is sustained.
We looked at how sustainable each SigDev was. Specifically, the max price 24 hours after each SigDev compared to the following week's average price
The data shows that the hype of a Listing or Partnership announcement tends to wear off within a week; however, Funding announcements and announcements about Mergers and Acquisitions have positive effects that often extend well beyond a week
Listings can have large impacts on price, but why is there such variance in the data?
Some cryptos already trade on hundreds of exchanges, so an additional listing would likely have negligible impact on the price of the asset.
Ex. BCH on Crypto(dot)com
However, when a newer asset that was previously listed on more illiquid markets gets placed on a large trading venue like Coinbase or Binance — when markets previously didn’t exist for that coin on any of the larger exchanges. the potential impact is the greatest.
Consider Aragon. On Aug 12th ANT was first listed on OKEx when it rose from $4.34 to $5.38 in just under two hours, a gain of 24%. Less than 24 hours later, the token was listed on Huobi and Binance concurrently, and the price of Aragon soared to a high of $11.45, a 164% gain
In the short-term increased exposure via listings is a positive for the price of cryptocurrencies.
However, as mentioned, listings are among the least sustainable events in the mid-term. In under three months the price of ANT dropped to below the pre-listing value.
Analyzing over 10,000 unique SigDevs we then asked the question, what is the probability that a particular event will correlate with an increase in price?
See table below for the probability that each SigDev will result in a positive change after 1hr/24hr/7d
Mergers and Acquisitions are remarkable, showing a 90% chance of a positive return after a week, averaging 8.23% in returns. This outsized return is likely due to the fact that most token-related M&A news are tightly held secrets.
Further, M&A news in the context of tokens are typically done to add further value to an ecosystem. Ex. FTX’s acquisition of Blockfolio brought a significant number of additional users into the FTX ecosystem. In just over a week following the acquisition, FTT surged by 33%.
Conversely, and unsurprisingly, 51 % Attacks show the lowest probabilities of positive returns. 51% attacks show an average loss of 3.32% after one week. 79.2% of the time, tokens lose value after 7 days.
A Mainnet Launch or Upgrade results in a positive price increase for the coin only 47% of the time. A mainnet launch means that a token is moving from a testing to a live environment. Negative price movement is likely due to a “buy the rumor and sell the news” mentality.
Token burns result in the decreasing of the supply of a token, so intuitively one would think that the deflationary pressure would be a positive in the longer-term, but early research on this subject has not offered any conclusive proof.
As this industry develops over time we believe that it is more likely that gains for token burns will be more sustainable, all else equal.
Here is an additional chart showing the average price change following each significant development:
Let’s be honest — as much as people like to say they get their news from real news outlets, many of us rely on Twitter. But does news from news outlets affect price more than tweeted information? It depends.
Generally, we find no significant difference in price action after announcements, whether they come from tweets or news. However, Regulatory announcements tend to have a larger effect from news while Airdrop announcements are more supported by Twitter activity.
The next question we set out to ask is does Twitter activity matter? Does it matter how positive or negative investors are about a coin following a significant development and how big the size of the community discussing a particular asset is.
We can't give everything away in a thread
Read the Q3 Quarterly Report that we put together with @eToroUS to learn more about what impact Twitter has on prices following SigDevs and dive deeper into what actually moves the prices of cryptocurrencies
https://t.co/lBjqTYWySs
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The vast majority of its success was fueled by #DeFi.
Here's what happened in 5 Tweets 🔽
1) Governance Tokens 🪙
Projects gave complete ownership of billion dollar protocols to their users, often using retroactive airdrops.
Early adopters earned tokens for past usage, and token-based voting now dictates all technical
2) Liquidity Mining ⛏️
Power users were the first to earn on-going distribution by providing liquidity.
$COMP sparked the wave, with $BAL coining the term a few weeks
3) Yield Faming 🌾
Projects coupled liquidity mining and governance tokens to boost 'yields' by combining lending rates with an incentive layer.
APYs peaked as high as 1M% during 'DeFi summer', leading to a 'food coin' craze like $YAM and
4) Fair Launches ✅
Who needs investment when you can launch using yield farming?
@iearnfinance debuted $YFI with no formal funding, seeding a community treasury for self-sustainability.
The notion of a core team and community became one and the
The vast majority of its success was fueled by #DeFi.
Here's what happened in 5 Tweets 🔽
1) Governance Tokens 🪙
Projects gave complete ownership of billion dollar protocols to their users, often using retroactive airdrops.
Early adopters earned tokens for past usage, and token-based voting now dictates all technical
It pays to be a web3 power user.
— Coopahtroopa \U0001f525_\U0001f525 (@Cooopahtroopa) December 9, 2020
Five networks that issued retroactive airdrops to value added actors \U0001f4dd
2) Liquidity Mining ⛏️
Power users were the first to earn on-going distribution by providing liquidity.
$COMP sparked the wave, with $BAL coining the term a few weeks
BAL is live!
— Balancer Labs (@BalancerLabs) June 23, 2020
The 435k BAL for liquidity providers of the first three weeks of liquidity mining (145k per week) have just been sent out to the wallets used to provide liquidity on Balancer.https://t.co/pkXFzwzPVC
3) Yield Faming 🌾
Projects coupled liquidity mining and governance tokens to boost 'yields' by combining lending rates with an incentive layer.
APYs peaked as high as 1M% during 'DeFi summer', leading to a 'food coin' craze like $YAM and
Check out @Cooopahtroopa's latest post for all the #DeFi farmers out there \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f33e
— Zerion \U0001f3e6 (@zerion_io) June 26, 2020
Turns out @synthetix_io & @CurveFinance were ploughing the fields long before $COMP & $BAL came along.
Learn how to put your #crypto to work with this #yieldfarming 101 \U0001f4b8
\U0001f449 https://t.co/zYUKtqx3BK
4) Fair Launches ✅
Who needs investment when you can launch using yield farming?
@iearnfinance debuted $YFI with no formal funding, seeding a community treasury for self-sustainability.
The notion of a core team and community became one and the
2/ What is a Fair Launch?
— fair launch capital (@fairlaunchcap) August 26, 2020
A FL enables founders to bootstrap new crypto networks that are earned, owned, and governed by their community from the outset.
In this dynamic, everyone participates on equal footing\u2014there is no early access, pre-mine, or allocation of tokens.
🚨Altcoin Trading Indicator🚨
How to use it. A THREAD.
Please Share.
To use it to buy Altcoins and make a high probability entry, the following conditions needs to be fulfilled.
For a long.
1. A green candle Closes above the cross.
2. Heikin Ashi candle turns green.
3. Price should be above 0.236 Fib from the swing high.
How to add the Indicator.
1. Click on the link and Add it to favorites and apply.
https://t.co/Kn90qgDjMi
2. Or Search it in the tab and then apply it.
The indicator itself the most comprehensive Moving Average Indicator which provides 9 MAs and 13 Different times of MAs.
The base of the indicator was by @insiliconot.
To further enhance it, I have added a cross indicator on the cross which works the best historically on Alts.
Condition 1- The cross.
Entry is made when a Cross occurs on the EMA 13/21.
The indicator automatically indicators the Cross with P for a positive cross or N for a negative cross.
This is the first condition for an Entry.
How to use it. A THREAD.
Please Share.
To use it to buy Altcoins and make a high probability entry, the following conditions needs to be fulfilled.
For a long.
1. A green candle Closes above the cross.
2. Heikin Ashi candle turns green.
3. Price should be above 0.236 Fib from the swing high.
How to add the Indicator.
1. Click on the link and Add it to favorites and apply.
https://t.co/Kn90qgDjMi
2. Or Search it in the tab and then apply it.
The indicator itself the most comprehensive Moving Average Indicator which provides 9 MAs and 13 Different times of MAs.
The base of the indicator was by @insiliconot.
To further enhance it, I have added a cross indicator on the cross which works the best historically on Alts.
Condition 1- The cross.
Entry is made when a Cross occurs on the EMA 13/21.
The indicator automatically indicators the Cross with P for a positive cross or N for a negative cross.
This is the first condition for an Entry.
We should be proud about @0xPolygon. But don't invest if you don't understand what they do just like any other asset class.
Should you invest in Polygon (Matic)?
— LearnApp (@LearnApp_co) June 12, 2021
\U0001f4a1 Here's @PrateekLearnapp's take on #Matic, as shared on @CNBCTV18News.
What are your thoughts on #Polygon (Matic)? \U0001f4ac
Read the full article here \U0001f449 https://t.co/rmLTV0WFo2#crypto #cryptocurrencies pic.twitter.com/9k1lclN7oL
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i wonder if you can make a thread bout witchcraft in malaysia.. or list of our own local gods/deites..
— r a y a \U0001f319 (@lcvelylilith) February 20, 2020
Before I begin, it might be worth explaining the Malay conception of the spirit world. At its deepest level, Malay religious belief is animist. All living beings and even certain objects are said to have a soul. Natural phenomena are either controlled by or personified as spirits
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Animist ceremonies of a religious or magical nature were normally held for the purpose of divination or making a request. This would either be done at a keramat or at a shrine similar to the Thai spirit houses or Chinese roadside shrines pic.twitter.com/I1hliyi0x3
— \u2745\u1710\u170b\u1713\u170e (@uglyluhan) June 16, 2019
Two known examples of such elemental spirits that had god-like status are Raja Angin (king of the wind) and Mambang Tali Arus (spirit of river currents). There were undoubtedly many more which have been lost to time
Contact with ancient India brought the influence of Hinduism and Buddhism to SEA. What we now call Hinduism similarly developed in India out of native animism and the more formal Vedic tradition. This can be seen in the multitude of sacred animals and location-specific Hindu gods
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I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!
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Tik Tok pic.twitter.com/8X3oMxvncP
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Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?
Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??
Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?
Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.
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https://t.co/bx8XjhiCiB
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