In this thread @EricTopol describes evidence from Israel of waning anti-#SARSCoV2 immunity months after mRNA #COVID19 #vaccination.
But as I wrote https://t.co/NZk0v3r6Dc the explanation is about timing. People ARE immune, but after months response goes
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A teachable moment for Bayesian reasoning – when one study finds a result that's massively different than all the others, and, moreover, conflicts with what we know about the science, there's a pretty good chance it's either a fluke or it's wrong.
The Israeli estimate of relatively high immune escape from Delta that a lot of you were freaking out about now looks like it was the result of sloppy statistical analysis. https://t.co/F5sHsJDFF1
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 28, 2021