Thought I was going to finish 2020 empty handed, tough real estate market out here.

Managed to snag a great deal at the last minute and wanted to share the details.

Here’s how I analyze multifamily real estate investment opportunities 👇

The property was a vacant 4plex, listed for $990k & after a few back and forths, the sellers accepted $950k with no finance condition.

Sellers were an elderly couple who neglected the property, it needed a lot of work. It was in a great neighbourhood/location.

(more pics later)
I first calculated my total equity investment required to acquire and stabilize the property.

During the inspection, did a full walk through with a trusted contractor (worked with for years), receiving quotes unit-by-unit.

Estimated time to complete = 4-6 months.
Next is the stabilized P&L.

Since I know the area very well, I can estimate rents and opex with great accuracy (I have another property within 15 mins walking distance).

Tenants are responsible for hydro/gas.
Finally, I put together the key metrics in evaluating the deal.

I look for yield above 15%, cash on cash above 7% and debt service above 1.5.

As you can see, the numbers check out.
Bull case - I’m also looking into adding a 5th rental unit, which if feasible, should cost $50k to $75k to construct & generate $13k to $15k in annual gross rents.

This would improve all of my metrics. But even if it isn’t feasible, the base case is good enough for my criteria.
I never speculate on either asset appreciation or future rent increases in my models or decision making criteria. I plan on holding very long term.

But if cap rates on stabilized properties remain around the current 3.5% to 4% range, the property could be worth $1.56m to $1.78m.
For more details on this deal, along with more pics and an explanation on how my real estate investing strategy has evolved, check out my blog post.

I also post free content on investing and personal finance, so be sure to subscribe!

https://t.co/RbSaUEdKt0
Regarding deal sourcing, it was sent to me by a local broker who I have a relationship with.

Regarding financing, no investors or LPs and mortgage is 1.8% with 30 year amortization.

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From @MrBeastYT and @MorningBrew to @oatly and @Rovio.

Let's break down what "The Balloon Effect" is and examples of it in real life.

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1/ What is "The Balloon Effect"?

It is a particular pattern of growth.

It is not Instagram's growth trajectory.

It is not
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"The Balloon Effect" is defined by several years of hard work & grit complemented by slow, linear growth.

2/ And then one day, one month, or one quarter...everything changes.

A business hits a tipping point and its trajectory shifts entirely.

Gradual growth turns to exponential growth & your brand and your size explode.

Like a step function.

3/ Now, you're probably wondering.

Why is it called "The Balloon Effect"?

Because filling/popping a water balloon follows the exact pattern I just described (and so many businesses experience).

Long unsexy slog 👉 Exponential tipping point.

4/ Initially, you turn on the faucet & water takes up space in the empty balloon.

Through effort you open the faucet, yet the results are unexciting.

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It's not sexy, but it's necessary.

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