BC BUSINESS
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Did you know that 30% of funded search funds end up not making an acquisition?

We have bought eight beautiful businesses this year and learned a lot about what works and what doesn’t.

Read below for case studies of the two best (20x) acquisitions I have seen. Happy New Years!

 First - you pay for existing profits, but you usually pay nothing for the growth potential. Buying at 4x EBITDA and doubling a business, you now paid 2x. Your loan payments are only based on the price you paid. You keep all the growth as equity.
So there are businesses out there that have both boring, predictable profits today AND potential for substantial growth. Make sure you find one with both.
Business #1: Buyer paid $400k for an ecom business. High margins, bad marketing. Paid about 4x cash flow. Put 100% of his energy on social media growth marketing. Kept going and testing until he had the formula.
Key ingredients there: low purchase price, proven useful product, Hugh margins, poor marketing. The buyer brought the hustle and creativity to scale through social media marketing. It wasn’t a passion product for him, but he liked the market.
Business #2: Buyer had a hobby that he was passionate about. Found a membership program that he loved run by a husband and wife team. Cold outreach to them: “would you ever consider selling your business for the right price?”
Similar to first one, his special sauce was scaling social media marketing and improving conversion. This was a subscription membership - low cost high utility and in a niche market.
Paid $800k plus a bit of seller financing. Again 4x cash flow approx. He 10x’ed the customer base in a few years. As @RyanBegelman says, there are riches in niches.
So why do so many searches fail? In my view, one huge problem is they overindex on consistency of profits and underindex on growth potential and strategy. As a result, investors don’t get that excited even when they do find a deal. Boring is good. Boring and scalable is better.
Another problem is they don’t solve for financing. Some businesses are easy to finance, some are hard. You want to talk to lenders early and often. They are your best sources of intel on how much debt you can access and at what cost.
So I often advise searchers to look for smaller (SBA fundable) opportunities as well the bigger $10-$20 million deals in the traditional sweet spot. You own more of the business and often have more unrealized growth.

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Travis
Travis
@coloradotravis
It's endlessly fascinating how economic datapoints get interpreted.

When I was in charge of a P&L, the guy who ran Finance for us and I had what we called the 'shelf plan.'

There were maybe 3-4 of us who knew it existed.

What's a shelf plan?
1/

Well it's a plan you keep on the shelf (full FP&A model), that you hope you never have to use.

It reduces forward hires, cuts back various line items (typically ad spend, travel, that sort of thing).

Oh, it also has a big fat RIF in there.

That's why we don't talk about it.
2/

Why have a plan instead of winging it?

Because this is where companies (particularly young companies) sometimes err. They do little cuts - 2-3% here and there, preserving as much headcount as they can, that sort of thing.

This is incorrect.
3/

If you're at the point where you need to make material changes to your forward P&L, at 2-3% RIF will be followed by another.

And another.

And this series of progressive cuts will cripple morale, incrementally reducing the productivity of the staff you retain to survive.
4/

And so the shelf plan cuts deep.

Your goal is to go from being a peacetime machine to a wartime machine, so you gotta lean out quick. Can't do that without a plan, hence the need to have one.

~30% cut is what you need.

And then you need to tell everyone left they're safe.
5/
BUSINESS
a h
a h
@alexharfouche1
#irrationalebullience If you want to understand the nature of this asset bubble and the epic capital mis-allocation at it’s heart, look no further than rates. CB’s only tool to push an uber-levered financial system that is highly interconnected through derivatives
(1/N)

away from it’s natural convergence path towards collapse is to create opposing forces to push it towards divergence. Meaning: force, through financial repression, market participants to rely on price continuation, in a way that makes it self-fulfilling.
(2/N)

The tool used is rates as it is the basis off of which all other financial assets are priced. Today any buyer of $UST across the curve up to 30Y is guaranteed a loss given reals are negative throughout. So the only hope of escaping this GUARANTEED loss
(3/N)

is to angle for capital gains, i.e a continuous move downwards in real rates to push for some capital gains in real terms. The longer the financial repression lasts, the further investors are pushed out the maturity and credit risk curves.
(4/N)

Here are examples to understand what exactly is happening. If an investors buys a 5 Y UST he is guaranteed to lose almost 2% in real terms, so making that up in capital gains is much harder given the v short duration.
(5/N)
BUSINESS
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Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
An "Aquarium" needs cleaning in my opinion, but who am I, a mere monkey, to give advice?
Astonished at what @bellingcat discovered about GRU & FSB operations
Skripal https://t.co/PzH3a7JZvy
Navalny https://t.co/eZi63UhWw1
FSB https://t.co/sViYk9RwmB
GRU https://t.co/MY5d5gw2OG


A great post by Ilya Yahin on

Every time Putin talks about “our special services,” his signature smirk appears on his face, and in his words there is poorly concealed bragging
"Of course, we knew everything in advance"
"Yes, we are looking"
"Mercader has already been sent"
“World-class professionals”

Putin clearly loves all these spy games. He is very proud of the special services and therefore endlessly increases budget funding for them.
This is his top priority.
The elderly dictator cannot understand one thing:

there are no effective special services in a state that is completely corroded by corruption. You won't have honest professionals at your fingertips if your son-in-law buys shares of a state company for $ 100, the real value of which exceeds $ 380 million.
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Romeen Sheth
Romeen Sheth
@RomeenSheth
I love Twitter.

It’s truly the Town Square of the Internet.

But finding the diamond in the rough voices can be tough.

Here are 20 of my favorite people to follow:

1. Alex Lieberman - @businessbarista

Alex writes extensively about the Founder journey.

The cool part is he’s lived everything he talks about - starting from $0 and selling for $75M with hardly any outside capital raised.

My favorite piece:


2. Ryan Breslow - @ryantakesoff

Ryan is a Top 1% founder.

This guy is a machine - he’s built 2 unicorns before the age of 27.

Ryan spells out lessons on fundraising, operating and scaling.

My favorite piece:


3. Jesse Pujji - @jspujji

Jesse is who I think of when I think “bootstrapping.”

He bootstrapped his company to an 8-figure exit and now shares stories about other awesome bootstrappers.

He’s also got great insight into all things growth marketing:


4. Post Market - @Post_Market

Post puts out some of the most thoughtful investment insights on this platform.

It’s refreshing because Post cuts through the hype and goes deep into the business model.

Idk who he/she/it is, but the insights are 💣.
BUSINESS
Shreyas Doshi
Shreyas Doshi
@shreyas
If you’re a Startup trying to compete with a Megacorp—the 800-pound Gorilla in the space—you need to understand the tax inherent to being a Gorilla

And then you need to make that tax work against the Gorilla—with your product's positioning & features

A thread on Gorilla taxes👇🏾


1/
Collaboration Tax

Getting two or more product groups at a megacorp to collaborate on creating a seamless end user experience is the hardest problem in computer science.

(I am not joking)

Examples of Collaboration Tax:

Calendly exists because the Gmail team & Calendar team haven’t worked together on creating a more seamless experience for that use case.

Loom might succeed because the Gmail, Video, Meet teams at Google are probably too busy with their own goals.

The takeaway for startups:

If you can create meaningful value by seamlessly integrating features of two or more distinct Gorilla products, you will typically have a lot of runway before the Gorilla can get its act together and eliminate its Collaboration Tax.

2/
Denominator Tax

Once a Gorilla’s product reaches massive scale (i.e. the denominator for its metrics gets very large), the pressure of OKRs & incentives will often force the Gorilla’s product teams to prioritize breadth of usage more than depth of usage.
BUSINESS

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The article is, at heart, deeply weird, even essentialist. Here, for example, is the claim that proposing climate engineering is a "man" thing. Also a "man" thing: attempting to get distance from a topic, approaching it in a disinterested fashion.


Also a "man" thing—physical courage. (I guess, not quite: physical courage "co-constitutes" masculinist glaciology along with nationalism and colonialism.)


There's criticism of a New York Times article that talks about glaciology adventures, which makes a similar point.


At the heart of this chunk is the claim that glaciology excludes women because of a narrative of scientific objectivity and physical adventure. This is a strong claim! It's not enough to say, hey, sure, sounds good. Is it true?
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Strong Monopolies:

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Exide >60% market share in lead batteries.

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In 1937, a trucker got frustrated waiting for his cargo to be unloaded. He later sold his company for $1.1 billion.

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In the early 1950s, the shipping industry was a dying business.

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In thirty years, no one had invested significant money in coastal shipping.

Why?

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A truck or train would deliver items to the port. Each item was unloaded separately, recorded, and carried to storage.

When a ship was ready, each item was taken from storage, counted again, and hauled on-board.


The cost of this labor was significant. As one expert at the time explained:

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Really impressive for 24 hours. Congrats!


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https://t.co/og0B7gmkW6

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