BC BREXIT
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The risks that arise from Merkel's departure this year aren't really linked to her succession, but rather the vacuum she leaves behind in Europe. For Brexit/UK watchers, this is an important transitional year for the EU - & one worth paying attention to
Thread 1/

 The outcome of Ger elections in Sept is highly likely to be a Black/Green coalition. Positive for Ger & EU. All the contenders to replace Merkel are also mainstream, some just more conservative than others. See @NazMasraff & @COdendahl very good analysis & threads for more 2/
Yet despite this constructive outcome, in short & medium term, Merkel’s departure will leave a large gap in EU no leader can credibly fill. @EmmanuelMacron will try, but without Merkel or strong partnership in Berlin, his more disruptive, abrasive style won't succeed 3/
Merkel's presidency last year is a class example of her deft political skills. Landing deals with UK & China (whose real value is framework & basis for broader political co-operation they provide); on €750bn Recovery Fund & rule of law; & climate 4/
Of course there's a lot of criticism about compromises she brokered. There is some truth to them. But very often these critiques pay little serious attention to the counterfactual, for eg, of leaving Pol & Hu behind. I think the price would have been too high to pay 5/
Could @EmmanuelMacron have brokered these compromises? Of course not. But without Macron, many of these ideas would never have been seeded. The Recovery Fund was an idea conceived in @Elysee, arguably dating back to 2017 & ill fated “Eurozone budget” & Meseberg accord in 2018 6/
Likewise, “strategic autonomy” - Paris’ intellectual framework for European
“sovereignty“ & geopolitical relevance - laid the groundwork for the EU deal Merkel's presidency brokered with China 7/
Of course you could argue Brexit, Trump & Covid-19 were as critical in changing Merkel’s outlook as Macron was. But in striking these agreements, Merkel did move away from old German balance between Atlantic (NATO) & E Europe/Moscow to build stronger links with “South” - & France
Macron can therefore claim to have succeeded where his predecessors - Sarkozy & Hollande - failed. He did so partly bc he had a strategic vision to sell to Germany (cc @PedderSophie impactful 2019 @TheEconomist interview) which Berlin eventually realised they needed 9/
It mattered that unlike previous French Presidents, @EmmanuelMacron was not just demanding German financial/fiscal support. Not unfairly then, Macron sees himself as a guiding force in EU post-Merkel. But in reality & practice, he will need a sympathetic partner in Berlin 10/
Will he find one? The new Chancellor will necessarily be more inexperienced, more pre-occupied with domestic politics & coalition management. And as @lucasguttenberg says in his very good thread, they will probably - to begin with - be very cautious on all things EU 11/
So Macron's greatest fear - the emergence of a Chancellor who will push hard on European brakes & look inward - is certainly justified. Aggravating this, Macron’s own energy & efforts will also largely be absorbed by triple covid, economic & possible security crises this year 12/
And when Germany’s new leader does eventually settle in & come up for air, Macron's own Presidential elections will be fast approaching (April/May 2022) & all consuming. So what's the punchline? 13/
Looking over the horizon, it's likely Paris & Berlin are going to be out of lockstep for some time to come. Put differently, based on the above, one could credibly argue Europe is going to be poorly or ineffectively led for at least the next 12-15 months 14/
This is why Merkel's exit from German/EU politics is @EurasiaGroup top Europe risk for 2021; full report here:
https://t.co/u7AMJoEBnV 15/
With no effective Ger/Fr “leadership safety net“, there are many issues that could stall/be negatively affected/fester this year, eg - implementation of Recovery Fund; reform of EU fiscal rules; EU/China deal; tensions with Turkey in Eastern Med; the reset with Biden etc 16/
This is not an exhaustive list of challenges EU now faces, but a few examples where Merkel’s leadership & partnership with Macron has been pivotal. This era is now coming to a close & a period of transition, uncertainty & a yet unknown Franco-German dynamic awaits on other side
Of course the EU is bigger than Fr & Ger. But the painful truth is nothing meaningful can happen without their prior & substantive alignment. The full argument is here, in my first piece for @POLITICOEurope this year ENDS

https://t.co/mZmrfO8mA1

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Today's UK-EU trade deal reflection - what is rarely stated in discussions about the deal's shortcomings is that they reflect UK government policy choices - in particular that control of immigration and a US trade deal are a higher priority than an EU deal.

Thus, why was it not a UK government priority to secure for UK musicians the rights to tour the EU? Because that would probably have required a reciprocal right to be given to those in the EU, which we didn't want to give. Choice.

Meanwhile why did the UK government not seek or secure a reduction in food inspections for GB products going to the EU? Because that would probably have required fixing food regulations in a way that might have been an obstacle to a US trade deal.

Works the other way as well. Why did the EU refuse UK requests on mutual recognition of industrial testing? In part at least because of UK lack of commitment on maintaining the previous EU system of standards and conformity assessment which might be a problem in a US deal.

One of the strangest opinions in the London politics bubble is that the UK government isn't that bothered about a US trade deal, as it so obviously goes against the evidence. There might be domestic opposition, but this was to be Brexit Dividend Number 1.
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katya adler
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EU views PMs letter accompanying his formal #Brexit extension request - saying that he doesn’t actually want an extension- as a gimmick aimed at a domestic audience. As far as EU law is concerned: a formal request from the UK prime minister, is a formal request full stop /1

EU leaders not rushing to make decisions. Instead they watch events in Westminster carefully. If their newly negotiated #Brexit deal is approved by the majority of MPs - as the PM promised them it would be - then possibly no extension will be needed OR /2

Only a short one maybe to allow for necessary legislation to be completed. If this is the case, EU leaders won’t think twice about granting this short extension. They may even approve it by writing rather than on person at an emergency #Brexit summit. Spoiler alert../3

EU leaders - who surprise, surprise already have a thing or two planned in their diaries over next couple of weeks - have zero appetite to return to Brussels again especially for #Brexit They have no desire to be involved in the drama playing out right now in the UK BUT /4

If MPs reject the deal, if there are plans for a general election or a referendum on the deal then a longer extension will be necessary. Here it is harder for EU leaders to come to immediate consensus so an emergency summit becomes likely /5
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John Lichfield
John Lichfield
@john_lichfield
Fish thread.
Having read the Brexit deal, I believe B. Johnson misled the nation on Thurs when he said Britain could catch “all the fish that it wants ” in UK waters in 5 years’ time. The clear presumption in the text is that EU fleets will have similar access after 2026.1/12

The UK fish industry will have to pay a high price in EU import tariffs if that access is withdrawn. Overall… the deal falls far short of the exaggerated “sea of opportunity” promises made to UK fishermen. 2/12

The headline quota compromise - reducing EU catches in the UK 200 mile zone by 25% over five and a half years – is balanced enough. But different fishers will study the small-print with delight OR anger. Some EU quotas will be cut more than others. 3/12

Fisheries, we were told, would be a big Brexit winner. No it won’t. On this deal, the UK industry will certainly lose more from Brexit (no more frictionless access to the EU market) than it gains (incremental, extra quotas over the next 5 years). 4/12

First…the length of the deal. The 5 and 1/2 years of cuts in EU quotas/increases in UK quotas, are laid out in annexes to the main treaty. The last column says “2026 onwards” In other words, the presumption is there will be no further cuts in EU quotas after that date. 5/12
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Peter Foster
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@pmdfoster
So. The hunt is on in Whitehall for #brexit dividends...to show some clear value in the freedoms given by Brexit.

As we report today one area being looked at is workers' rights...but it is politically difficult territory.

No cabinet decisions have been taken, but per sources, three potential areas been identified in Business Dept...

- the 48 Hour Week
- holiday pay/overtime calculations
- new EU rules on reporting hours worked...

All potentially possible post #brexit /2

The government says it has no intention of “lowering” workers’ rights....and notes that UK has actually gold-plated many EU regulations...BUT (think of government saying it won't "lower" animal welfare standards)...the devil will all be in the detail, if and when it comes /3

So the government likes to talk about ensuring workers’ rights are protected but ALSO making sure businesses has freedoms and flexibility to grow...so one man's reduction in rights is another freedom to get richer/work harder/be more prosperous. It depends how you sell it. /4

So take this 2017 story from The Sun on the cash bonanza that will be rained down on hardworking families by Brexiteers' (long standing) desire to scrap the 48-hour week. Overtime booooom..../5

https://t.co/QLqQ7rCzkv
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Richard Wilson
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@timomouse
A not-so-little thread on how post-Brexit work permit regulations will apply in Scottish football and why it’s, broadly, not a good thing...

1) Work permit calculations are based on the points formula from this site - https://t.co/sjqx8Df7Zg

As things stand, while this article deals with England, the system applies to Scotland also.

The goal is 15 points and the article shows various ways to get there. Essentially, play regularly internationally or in a top 5 league and you’re in. But read the article because it’s a bit trickier than that.

2) There are elements of this I’d dispute. For example, here’s the banding of leagues and, lower down, it’s an absolute mess - Denmark (ranked 14 in coefficient table) and Serbia (16) banded lower than Croatia (20), Greece (18) and Czechs (19)? It’s wholly random.


I get the point that leagues should be banded, but there doesn’t seem to have been loads of sense applied to how these things are actually banded, rather they’ve just shoved a bunch of leagues together and hoped for the best.
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Samudragupta in the gupta era coin. You can see the helmet like headwear on him.

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Whereas earlier the Maharaja had to wear the mukut whenever his court was in session.

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Maharaj Dahir of Sindh👇

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But as times past the style of headwear also changed.

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Portrait of Sri Krishna Dev Raya👇

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Varahi Amman, Madurai, Tamilnadu

Vaarahi is one of the Saivite Shakti deities with the group of goddesses known as SAPTAMATAS.
They are: Brahmi, Maheshwari, Kaumari, Vaishnavi, Vaarahi, Mahendri and Chamundi. 1/n


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and led the devotees ultimately to SriVidyas. She is also called Panchami). With Kurukalla, she is accorded the parental status to Sri-Chakra (Lalita Tripura-Sundari). While Kurukalla represents the full moon, Vaarahi represents the new-moon. 4/4

Jai Maa Varahi 🙏


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