A few thoughts in advance of seeing the Brexit deal, assuming it's not scuppered at the last.

1. It will save industries, in the short term. For all the problems it *won't* solve, there is at least that. Tariffs would have finished off some sectors like switching off a light.

2. Expect a lot of confusion (through ignorance, and deliberate obfuscation by certain segments of the media) between free trade and frictionless trade. Trade that is free can still come with plenty of friction. Those extra £billions in customs paperwork won't go away.
3. There may be a standstill or implementation period. If there is, that will be helpful because it will let us get further down the road of vaccinating against the coronavirus, and resolving one crisis before plunging into the rest.
4. Any standstill will trigger a huge wave of "you told us scary things would happen, but they didn't." If you're counting along, it will be the 3rd such wave. First was during the negotiations while we were still EU members. Second during transition when EU rules still applied.
5. Those are just words. But the damage to the economy is real. So a standstill remains preferable, though teeth may have to remain gritted a while longer as a result.

6. Expect a few positive surprises. (Not compared to EU membership, but to what would otherwise have been.)
7. Half the media focus will be on the fish. But 99.9% of the damage will come from the non-fish parts of the deal.

8. How have services fared? They're what keep our trade deficit from being a larger trade deficit. They can't get stuck at ports, but they can suffer from changes.
9. Speaking of ports... In the absence of a standstill period, the chaos will begin (continue?) very soon in the new year. 7 sets of customs declarations and other forms will see to that. Even one extra minute per truck guarantees massive tailbacks.
10. Two things may relieve some pressure at the ports, neither good:
- There are dozens of new direct ferry services between Ireland and the Continent, all introduced in the last 12 months or so. These include the 2 largest Ro-Ro ships in the world. So less via the landbridge.
- Hauliers may not come. We rely on EU drivers for the vast majority of transport, and they are spoiled for choice because there's a shortage within the EU itself. The horrid, inhumane situation down in Kent the last few days will have sent a very loud "avoid the UK" message.
11. No matter how bad the deal turns out to be, don't expect major improvements any time soon. Boris Johnson will stay lashed to it well beyond the point logic dictates. We have already had plenty of chances to see just how little he believes in proactivity during the pandemic.
12. The ERG, hard Brexiters and people like Farage will proclaim it a sell-out. That was a nailed on given, as clear as night follows day. Nothing will ever satisfy them. So that doesn't matter. The only thing that does is, how many people listen to them.
And there you have it. Wasn't going to jinx it by having thirteen points - we're in enough trouble as it is.

Remember, the deal - whatever it is - is *better* than no-deal AS WELL AS *worse* than EU membership.

Merry Christmas.

More from Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡

Handy guide for Dominic Raab and other Brexiteers, and for anyone keen to replace our EU trade with trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms...


You can't magic away the vast distances involved. Clue: we fly in only 1/192th of our trade compared to the amount that arrives via sea


But even if you invented a teleporter tomorrow, WTO terms are so bad, so stacked against us, that a no-deal Brexit will be a total economic disaster


And while the Brexiteers fantasise, real jobs are being lost, investments are drying up, companies are moving assets to the EU27 or redomiciling. All already happened and happening right now, not in some mythical


Of course, there are many, many myths that Brexiteers perpetuate that are total fiction. You've seen a couple of them already. The thread below busts a whole lot

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I'm going to do two history threads on Ethiopia, one on its ancient history, one on its modern story (1800 to today). 🇪🇹

I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):


The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹


Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹


References to the Queen of Sheba are everywhere in Ethiopia. The national airline's frequent flier miles are even called "ShebaMiles". 🇪🇹
1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”

Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?

A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:


2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:

Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”

Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.