Costs from regulatory divergence likely to be at least as important as border costs in the long run, but not immediately 2/
A few thoughts on how Brexit is likely to affect the UK economy in 2021 - with the caveat that much remains uncertain 1/
Costs from regulatory divergence likely to be at least as important as border costs in the long run, but not immediately 2/
However, I do not anticipate shortages of essential goods, as imports can be expedited if needed, e.g. air freight, priority customs processing 3/
- Red tape, e.g. need for customs workers wastes resources & lowers productivity
wasting resources
- Tariffs (if no deal)
- Rules of origin (if deal)
- Lost market access for services
https://t.co/07wNehNn7z 5/
Fwiw I get told that economics and process considerations (haulage, logistics, manufacturing etc) play limited role in #brexit inner circle decision-making. Belief it\u2019ll be messy but business will adjust. Q is more short term political embarrassment. 2/2
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) December 13, 2020
Consumer price rises likely to be moderate (low single digits?) but will gradually erode living standards similar to post-referendum https://t.co/l7Zyegk7MZ 6/
Cost of living
— Thomas Sampson (@thom_sampson) June 22, 2020
Leave vote caused sterling to fall by around 10% raising import costs & consumer prices
Breinlich, Leromain, @DennisNovy & I estimate depreciation increased cost of living by 2.9% by Q2 2018, costing average household \xa3870 per yearhttps://t.co/FsI5enlGfk 4/
https://t.co/d2r6M1GlvB 7/
Which industries are most exposed to EU tariffs under no deal?
— Thomas Sampson (@thom_sampson) December 7, 2020
12 sectors (HS 4 digit) have exports to the EU above \xa3350 million & would face an average EU tariff (ad-valorem equivalent) of at least 10% under no deal
Motor vehicles, clothing, meat & dairy feature prominently
time passes. 8/
And, as the Bank of England has noted, monetary policy cannot offset the impact of a permanent negative supply shock 10/
costs to tax payers rather than solving underlying problem of higher trade costs 11/
https://t.co/2ZULlcIotu
Excellent @UKandEU report on implications of new deal. @anandMenon1 @jdportes @jillongovt: https://t.co/OV0XXk5ypk
Interesting @JohnSpringford @tomashirstecon piece on interactions between Brexit & Covid:
https://t.co/pgasjQHwzw
More from Brexit
It may be Boxing day, but I've had a quick look
Title VIII: Energy is the key section (page 156 onwards)
▶️ Standard stuff on commitment to competition, unbundling and customer choice
▶️ UK Capacity Market no longer needs to try to integrate overseas Capacity providers & vice versa
(Article ENER.6, Clause 3, page. 160)
2/
▶️ Existing "exemptions" for selected interconnectors will continue to apply.
This means that these interconnectors can continue to sell capacity rights ahead of time, rather than all through close to real-time markets.
(Article ENER.11, page 162)
3/
▶️ No network charges on individual interconnector transactions (as now)
▶️ But, UK cannot participate in EU procedures for capacity allocation and congestion management (more on this later)
(Article ENER.13, page 163)
4/
Gas trading: looks like the UK stays in the existing PRISMA gas trading platform.
Not my specialist area, but is this because PRISMA isn't an EU institution (unlike electricity market coupling)?
https://t.co/5GQJtZDpTa
(Article ENER. 15, page 164)
5/
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I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!
Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!
Tik Tok pic.twitter.com/8X3oMxvncP
— Scotty Mar10 (@Allenma15086871) December 29, 2020
Has this man been concealing his true identity?
Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?
Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!
Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?
Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??
Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?
Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.
#SEALTeam6 Trump re-tweeted this.
i wonder if you can make a thread bout witchcraft in malaysia.. or list of our own local gods/deites..
— r a y a \U0001f319 (@lcvelylilith) February 20, 2020
Before I begin, it might be worth explaining the Malay conception of the spirit world. At its deepest level, Malay religious belief is animist. All living beings and even certain objects are said to have a soul. Natural phenomena are either controlled by or personified as spirits
Although these beings had to be respected, not all of them were powerful enough to be considered gods. Offerings would be made to the spirits that had greater influence on human life. Spells and incantations would invoke their
Animist ceremonies of a religious or magical nature were normally held for the purpose of divination or making a request. This would either be done at a keramat or at a shrine similar to the Thai spirit houses or Chinese roadside shrines pic.twitter.com/I1hliyi0x3
— \u2745\u1710\u170b\u1713\u170e (@uglyluhan) June 16, 2019
Two known examples of such elemental spirits that had god-like status are Raja Angin (king of the wind) and Mambang Tali Arus (spirit of river currents). There were undoubtedly many more which have been lost to time
Contact with ancient India brought the influence of Hinduism and Buddhism to SEA. What we now call Hinduism similarly developed in India out of native animism and the more formal Vedic tradition. This can be seen in the multitude of sacred animals and location-specific Hindu gods